1/25: Aqueduct (6th-9th)

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nikosi Reigns has been horrible. Greeley's Legacy could easily be below 2-1 but 5-1 feels to me like the highest. Frankly, anything higher seems suspicious. If he's right, and the race/speed stays intact, he will be extemely hard to beat.

Don't you thing Greeley's L will be hampered by the post position ? Outside wins haven't been that easy to get here in routes.

[blackthroatedwind]

Dominguez understands saving ground. The post is less of a problem than a possible bias. We'll see how the track is playing.

I'm not personally overly worried because I may not bet. Greeley's Legacy is a superior animal to the horses in this race. If the track is reasonably fair, and it's a reasonably fairly run race, he will win.

[zippyneedsawin]

route races have had less of a bias than those 6 furlong sprints at Aqueduct, IMO.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

route races have had less of a bias than those 6 furlong sprints at Aqueduct, IMO.

IMO it's the exact opposite.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

IMO it's the exact opposite.

i'm sure i haven't been following the inner meet as closely as you have, but based on the charts, I don't see it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

i'm sure i haven't been following the inner meet as closely as you have, but based on the charts, I don't see it.

Looking at charts, while not watching races, is a recipe for disaster.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Looking at charts, while not watching races, is a recipe for disaster.

Did Confucious say that?

I'll watch some replays.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Looking at charts, while not watching races, is a recipe for disaster.

This is true in the general sense. Not as much when it comes to (speed) biases.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Dominguez understands saving ground. The post is less of a problem than a possible bias. We'll see how the track is playing.

I'm not personally overly worried because I may not bet. Greeley's Legacy is a superior animal to the horses in this race. If the track is reasonably fair, and it's a reasonably fairly run race, he will win.

agreed.

what do you think about Hurrah in terms of coming back off of 9 days rest, where he had that pinch at the start and had to be hard ridden?
He's not much of a price (at least to open). Normally I would consider a horse like this as a key horse in a trifecta, not sure how he will bounce back...

[fpsoxfan]

Glad I stayed away from the first two races. Chalk and Chalk.

Will it be a total Aquechalk day?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

agreed.

what do you think about Hurrah in terms of coming back off of 9 days rest, where he had that pinch at the start and had to be hard ridden?
He's not much of a price (at least to open). Normally I would consider a horse like this as a key horse in a trifecta, not sure how he will bounce back...

Hurrah only won last time because the second horse got a horrendous ride. As for the short rest.....I can't even fathom a guess how horses from Contessa's barn run from one day to the next.

I suppose he's not impossible but I don't particularly like his chances today.