monday gulf ,sa ,fg pick 4s

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

It wasn't a fair track.I'm glad you cashed. That's your kind of fake track.You didn't pick 8 out of 9 winners.I don't see a single.You pick 3 horses a race,and got lucky in the last because the best horse was up against a huge bias....Chris PAASCH,HESS,AND JASON ORMAN....ALL 3=**** ........So,they had their day,and the track will be back under control soon,and good trainers will dominate these 3 again.They had their freak show.

the play was to box ect and pick 3s and rolling d.d.. muli plays are a safer bet and lead to better exotic payouts .. you keep singling and ill keep cashing.......... hey your play went all /7 ..i think the 1 may have been a good choice..but its gogos fault he didint get em moving not the tracks.....you need to watch the track abit more early in the card.. and the day before .and they have been adding sand giving it more grip in my opinion so speed is where it will be for a wile......

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

the play was to box ect and pick 3s and rolling d.d.. muli plays are a safer bet and lead to better exotic payouts .. you keep singling and ill keep cashing.......... hey your play went all /7 ..i think the 1 may have been a good choice..but its gogos fault he didint get em moving not the tracks.....you need to watch the track abit more early in the card.. and the day before .and they have been adding sand giving it more grip in my opinion so speed is where it will be for a wile......

also how many speed types went out and faded .........

[blackthroatedwind]

Picking winners is overrated......making money, then, I guess is underrated. Picking winners is about ego, it's all about needing to be right, but playing the horses is about making money and if your style of play is to spread, and you actually do make money doing this, then you are a better horseplayer, in all likelihood, than the person who thinks he makes money by picking a winner. I'm not saying that one style is absolutely better, but the successful players I know are better at putting together plays than picking specific winners.

As for the bias frustration, I hear you, and sometimes ( not as often as people think ) this is a big problem when playing the Aqueduct inner dirt ( which I play every day ). However, there is an enormous light at the end of the tunnel if you have a bias, especially a prolonged one, in that the track will become even at a certain point and you will left with a plethora of trips to use to play horses and play against, usually overbet, horses. That should more than financially make up for any supposed tough beats due to bias....if your opinion is solid and your race watching skills are even borderline competent.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Picking winners is overrated......making money, then, I guess is underrated. Picking winners is about ego, it's all about needing to be right, but playing the horses is about making money and if your style of play is to spread, and you actually do make money doing this, then you are a better horseplayer, in all likelihood, than the person who thinks he makes money by picking a winner. I'm not saying that one style is absolutely better, but the successful players I know are better at putting together plays than picking specific winners.

As for the bias frustration, I hear you, and sometimes ( not as often as people think ) this is a big problem when playing the Aqueduct inner dirt ( which I play every day ). However, there is an enormous light at the end of the tunnel if you have a bias, especially a prolonged one, in that the track will become even at a certain point and you will left with a plethora of trips to use to play horses and play against, usually overbet, horses. That should more than financially make up for any supposed tough beats due to bias....if your opinion is solid and your race watching skills are even borderline competent.

I already used up some of them ...Like Cherokee Tear,but as you can see,they run 2nd and 3rd against the bias,so ain't like they're are gunna be prices next time.It helps though in having confidence to single horses.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I already used up some of them ...Like Cherokee Tear,but as you can see,they run 2nd and 3rd against the bias,so ain't like they're are gunna be prices next time.It helps though in having confidence to single horses.

I think you are looking at it in somewhat the wrong way. It's not a case of making a " horses to watch " list as much as it is making careful notes of bias days, and then upgrading and downgrading horses when they return from those days based on their trips. It takes either detailed notes or a lot of replay watching when the horses come back but sometimes you will be surprised at all the hidden gems you will find.

A prolonged bias is a trip handicappers dream. You just have to be patient....the payoffs will come.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you are looking at it in somewhat the wrong way. It's not a case of making a " horses to watch " list as much as it is making careful notes of bias days, and then upgrading and downgrading horses when they return from those days based on their trips. It takes either detailed notes or a lot of replay watching when the horses come back but sometimes you will be surprised at all the hidden gems you will find.

A prolonged bias is a trip handicappers dream. You just have to be patient....the payoffs will come.

I got some dates.Like I said earlier, November 4th is a key date at OAKTREE. It really was difficult to get up if ya did't lay close up into the turn etc. Cherokee was best,and got 3rd.I think Street Boss was best, but was up against a strong bias.He may of injured alil something,but is working good again.Be tough Thursday( if the track doesn't have the same problem.) Solis is a f'n fossil though.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I got some dates.Like I said earlier, November 4th is a key date at OAKTREE. It really was difficult to get up if ya did't lay close up into the turn etc. Cherokee was best,and got 3rd.I think Street Boss was best, but was up against a strong bias.He may of injured alil something,but is working good again.Be tough Thursday( if the track doesn't have the same problem.) Solis is a f'n fossil though.

Street Boss romps......11/4=key date

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

just for kicks lets look at the winners pps/ vs the glorius 1 horse in the last

winner had ..higher beyer/better work, imo cut back.. both ran in same conditions. lewis /trainer of the 1 is a 6perc trainer

they payed 90k for the 2 ..then jocks 1 cnack to gogo..same thing

2 dellgatto to talamo plus though i like dellgato..

now the kicker.....the 2 beat the 1 last time 2 races back....


its just capping.......

[SentToStud]

There's still more than one way to be successful.

And, even if picking winners is overrated, you still need to be right at some point, whether it's making a horse an A,B,C or X in multis or betting against a short priced horse in a single race.

A couple of the better players I know eschew the multi-race wagers and focus on single race situations to bet strongly against a short-priced, negative-opinion horse mostly through the tri and super pools. Just like the p-4 or p-6 players, they have to be right about their opinion as well as their ticket structure. But they prefer betting this strategy vs being shoe-horned into needing to be right (at least to some extent) about a leg of a p-4 that is, to them, largely undecipherable.

You can still win using different strategies.

[SentToStud]

Also, way to go at SA yesterday, Hooves.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

There's still more than one way to be successful.

And, even if picking winners is overrated, you still need to be right at some point, whether it's making a horse an A,B,C or X in multis or betting against a short priced horse in a single race.

A couple of the better players I know eschew the multi-race wagers and focus on single race situations to bet strongly against a short-priced, negative-opinion horse mostly through the tri and super pools. Just like the p-4 or p-6 players, they have to be right about their opinion as well as their ticket structure. But they prefer betting this strategy vs being shoe-horned into needing to be right (at least to some extent) about a leg of a p-4 that is, to them, largely undecipherable.

You can still win using different strategies.

Obviously I agree. Being right somewhere will always be important, and as you said better than I did, that being right will often be in who you are betting against and how you do it.

[Bobby Fischer]

For a site that is minimal on B.S., there are several really good cappers here.

If anyone is interested, I watched the replay for the Fairgrounds 6th, and there didn't appear to be any advantage in the first 15 seconds. Cheap speed actually went out first. Couldn't be past posting/late posting. I think the best guess is that the connections Amoss/Maggi Moss felt they had a move-up and put between $3-5k to win (missed the place/show action) as they were loading the gate. They didn't want to influence the public by making their horse the favorite the whole time. That info doesn't help anyone, but the next time you think you have an Amoss move-up, it is something to look for in the last few odds bumps.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

For a site that is minimal on B.S., there are several really good cappers here.

If anyone is interested, I watched the replay for the Fairgrounds 6th, and there didn't appear to be any advantage in the first 15 seconds. Cheap speed actually went out first. Couldn't be past posting/late posting. I think the best guess is that the connections Amoss/Maggi Moss felt they had a move-up and put between $3-5k to win (missed the place/show action) as they were loading the gate. They didn't want to influence the public by making their horse the favorite the whole time. That info doesn't help anyone, but the next time you think you have an Amoss move-up, it is something to look for in the last few odds bumps.

why do you think it was the connections betting......

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Are you really serious with this stuff?

serious question?


the 2 horse win bet was not as efficient as possible. Had it been perfect it would have been $115/$85 ratio (instead of $105/$95) out of the $200. At 2.1-1 and allowing for me to naturally be off a few dollars here or there, the pool change cost me about $20 additional profit.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

the play was to box ect and pick 3s and rolling d.d.. muli plays are a safer bet and lead to better exotic payouts .. you keep singling and ill keep cashing.......... hey your play went all /7 ..i think the 1 may have been a good choice..but its gogos fault he didint get em moving not the tracks.....you need to watch the track abit more early in the card.. and the day before .and they have been adding sand giving it more grip in my opinion so speed is where it will be for a wile......

I was just giving you a hard time.You needed a good day.So good job.If it stays speed favoring,then I will pass.It comes down to jockey whims when it's speed favoring.I really don't care why that Bible Loving Court didn't provide any pressure yesterday in the 7th.That's what I mean though.I don't want to guess about his personal f'n choices.That's what speed biases make you do.Is so n' so gunna let his horse run or not?..f dat.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

As far as wagering style goes,I think if ya wanna go thick,then ya better be able to go thin.Even if ya don't pick a winner(single,) then I think ya should be able to go 2 deep versus 3 deep,because you need to go 5 deep to get through tough races.2x5x3x3 (to me) is better than 3x3x3x3.........Some of this has to do with each individual's past history etc. I grew up with a guy who used to go to the track for one race,and bet $500 to win and place on one horse,and he stole 10k using his pop's atm card.He got kicked out of the house.He then spent a lot of time with Corey Nakatani's sister.Next thing I know he's arrested for murder,and he is probably still in prison.So,I am never gunna be a fan of large betting.I do think there is a vast difference between betting pick 3 tickets versus pick 4 tickets.I think handicapping will work pretty well for 3 races,but when you start talking 4 races,you get into the "**** happens" territory.