Santa Anita not racing Saturday?

[The Bid]

You are actually wrong Rupe, Arlington was up as well.

Im not trying to be argumentitive, lets just agree to disagree. 14 ambulance runs, and a bunch of catastrophics for a short meet like Keeneland is cause for worry.

[letswastemoney]

How about they just run on the training track instead?

[Riot]

From Bloodhorse synthetics issue:

Catastrophic breakdowns, main track, racing hours:

Keeneland
2006 fall - poly - 0
2007 spring - poly - 0
2007 - fall - poly - 4

Arlington:
2002 dirt - 10
2003 dirt - 27
2004 dirt - 13
2005 dirt - 8
2006 dirt - 22
2007 poly - 13

[Riot]

Originally Posted by The Bid

You are actually wrong Rupe, Arlington was up as well.

Im not trying to be argumentitive, lets just agree to disagree. 14 ambulance runs, and a bunch of catastrophics for a short meet like Keeneland is cause for worry.

From the TB Times article you quoted:

"Lafe Nichols, D.V.M., Kentucky’s chief racing veterinarian, reports six catastrophic injuries during the 17-day meeting, which concluded on October 27. Nichols said 14 equine ambulance runs were needed during the meeting, as eight nonfatal injuries also were treated.

Nichols cautioned that many uncontrolled variables contribute to each individual case, making any hard conclusions difficult. The statistics include all injuries on the track, turf course, and on the property, as one of the fatalities occurred in the paddock."

So 4 on the poly, one in the paddock, and one on the turf. 6 fatalities. 8 injuries to horses where they were vanned off.

[The Bid]

14 ambulance runs for horses in distress seems like a large number considering the meet is 17 days.

It's a con deal plain and simple. Let them run on synthetic for a few more years and see if the fatalities don't go up.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Bid

14 ambulance runs for horses in distress seems like a large number considering the meet is 17 days.

The 14 ambulance runs include the horse who flipped in the paddock and the horses who got hurt on the turf course. That has nothing to do with the polytrack. The only umber that is relevant is the number of horses that got hurt on the polytrack.

The field sizes are way up because the horses are staying sounder. That doesn't mean that these artificial surfaces are perfect. But overall the data looks very encouraging.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The 14 ambulance runs include the horse who flipped in the paddock and the horses who got hurt on the turf course. That has nothing to do with the polytrack. The only umber that is relevant is the number of horses that got hurt on the polytrack.

Well, as I recall a number of the breakdowns the previous summer at Del Mar were on the turf course....but they somehow got included in the total for that meet.

I happen to agree with you on this point, and I realize your not trying to skew other numbers, but there are many factors in the breakdown discussion that the polytrack adherents gloss over. For instance, I have a feeling they were more careful in vetting runners once polytrack was installed than over prior surfaces. I have no proof of this, obviously, but I think it's a reasonable guess. Also, some of those breakdowns the prior year at Del Mar were pretty dicey looking to begin with.

To me, it's kind of what CJ said earlier, the polytrack groupies try to label anyone that has issues with the surfaces as horse haters, and anytime someone resorts to that kind of defensive stance I am dubious of their cause.

[The Bid]

12 in 17 days is a significant figure Rupe.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Bid

12 in 17 days is a significant figure Rupe.

Maybe there was a problem with the track at Keeneland this past Fall meet. I have no idea. It is certainly possible. There may be a problem at Golden Gate right now. I really don't know. As BTW said, there are a ton of factors involved so it's hard to know for sure, especially when you are looking at a small sample.

Synthetic surfaces are certainly not immune from problems. Just because a surface is synthetic, that doesn't guarantee that it will be safe.

But overall, I think the numbers look good. The increase in field size alone should tell you something.

[Riot]

I can't find anything about breakdowns turf vs dirt in CA (would have to go through their public records)

Regarding Del Mar, Bay Meadows, Santa Anita, Hollywood, Golden Gate:

Richard Shapiro, the chairman of the California Horse Racing Board (speaking in 2006): "When you look at the data on breakdowns, it's unacceptable. It's staggering. We had 227 horses destroyed on our tracks in 2005. And that doesn't count soft-tissue injuries or bowed tendons or suspensories."

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, as I recall a number of the breakdowns the previous summer at Del Mar were on the turf course....but they somehow got included in the total for that meet.

I happen to agree with you on this point, and I realize your not trying to skew other numbers, but there are many factors in the breakdown discussion that the polytrack adherents gloss over. For instance, I have a feeling they were more careful in vetting runners once polytrack was installed than over prior surfaces. I have no proof of this, obviously, but I think it's a reasonable guess. Also, some of those breakdowns the prior year at Del Mar were pretty dicey looking to begin with.

To me, it's kind of what CJ said earlier, the polytrack groupies try to label anyone that has issues with the surfaces as horse haters, and anytime someone resorts to that kind of defensive stance I am dubious of their cause.

I doubt that they were more careful in vetting horses. If they were more careful in vetting horses, that would have hurt field size. If the field sizes didn't increase, that would have killed their whole argument about horses staying sounder on polytrack.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I doubt that they were more careful in vetting horses. If they were more careful in vetting horses, that would have hurt field size. If the field sizes didn't increase, that would have killed their whole argument about horses staying sounder on polytrack.

That's a good point. How about Turfway? Do you think they were more careful, perhaps, the first year of polytrack as opposed to the previous winter?

[Riot]

I happen to agree with you on this point, and I realize your not trying to skew other numbers, but there are many factors in the breakdown discussion that the polytrack adherents gloss over.

And that the polytrack haters gloss over. That being, there are many things that contribute to injury. The surface of the track is only one of them. But it's one that is controllable to a great extent, so people want to do so.

[The Bid]

Turfway had more gate scratches than usual, especially after the bad spell last winter. I know I had one gate scratched that would have never been scratched in the past. We were an 8/5 gate scratch 2 minutes to post.