Aqueduct 12/29 late pk 4

[pointman]

Trying to work a ticket with Pmac. Looking for some opinions here. In 7th, like Elusive Value and think Cash McCool is a throwout as he has not been able to handle the off surface. Serious Fever deserves consideration as well, has a win on inner and Dutrow hot.

In the 8th, think Joey P. may get a real good trip, but it would have helped if the 4 remained in. Gold and Roses has not fared well against open competition and can see as a bet against. Debussy has a chance to take this field the whole way and I think City Attraction will be overbet.

Have been away, has there been a speed bias? Andy, could use some help here. Nice call on the winner in the last yesterday. Good luck to all playing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Speed is very strong. Seems near impossible to make up any real ground.

[philcski]

Serious speed/rail bias. Throw out any horse that won't break within 2-3 lengths of the lead. The 71-1 horse holding on as long as he did confirmed my opinion.

I feel ill not being alive in this pick 4. Had singled the 1 in the first leg, then went back and forth on using the 1 and 4 in the 2nd leg or just the 1, then went basically all-all in the last two legs.

The 3 in the 5th is very interesting. If the younger Bridgmohan can hustle this guy early i think he could take them all the way around. Clearing the 1 will be tough but the 1 will need every bit of the bias (and Dutrow magic) to help him get the distance.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

The 3 in the 5th is very interesting. If the younger Bridgmohan can hustle this guy early i think he could take them all the way around. Clearing the 1 will be tough but the 1 will need every bit of the bias (and Dutrow magic) to help him get the distance.

You apparently aren't familiar with his riding.

[pointman]

Where do you guys sit on the 8th? Debussy is intersting as he has the speed on the inside and loves the off going, could offer value here.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You apparently aren't familiar with his riding.

he tried... but the Dutrow influence was too strong.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

he tried... but the Dutrow influence was too strong.

You don't actually think he really tried...do you? I'm not saying he could have gotten the lead but he is an extremely passive rider which is why he is often a victim.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pointman

Where do you guys sit on the 8th? Debussy is intersting as he has the speed on the inside and loves the off going, could offer value here.

I like Pavo....but so does everybody. Personally I think DeBussy is fool's gold but he was certainly helped by the scratch...and the racetrack.

[pmacdaddy]

Your call Nick. Don't have much time. Upstate at family party.

Threw together some stuff with my bro (ltj). We made sure to cover 1,2 / 1,2 / 1,2 / 1,5....

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You don't actually think he really tried...do you? I'm not saying he could have gotten the lead but he is an extremely passive rider which is why he is often a victim.

He was pushing him out of the gate, and around the first turn, till he realized he wasn't getting the lead from the 1, which I guess is all I was asking for. I agree he is very passive, which doesn't work on the inner- I think it's due to riding at Calder where passive is often better than agressive. I certainly think he's more talented than his older brother.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like Pavo....but so does everybody. Personally I think DeBussy is fool's gold but he was certainly helped by the scratch...and the racetrack.

I think City Attraction is the one to avoid in here at 8/5. It's almost certain he gets hung 3 wide. I think if you cover the the inside 2 spots you've got the race locked up. Joey P is certainly eligible, and there was nothing wrong with his Fall Highweight effort, but he's not proven over the wet and again, probably won't get an adventageous trip.

[pointman]

Andy, Pavo is an intersting play and I like him a bit here also. Dutrow's step up shows confidence, he has the back class and could sit a perfect trip if a duel develops. Agree with Philski that City Attraction is going to be an overlay.

[blackthroatedwind]

I honestly don't think he rode this horse aggressively at all. I'm not a big fan of his brother, but in my opinion Sean is light years ahead of this future also-ran at Charles Town.

[Fearless Leader]

Gold And Roses is as big a lock as there can possibly be.

[philcski]

Crazy stab in the 6th... the 4 @ 12-1 on the trainer switch... two inside are hopelessly slow. Hate the favorite.

[pointman]

Taking a stab with:

6: 2,6,10,11,12
7: 1,6,9,11
8: 2,3
9: 1,5

Good luck to everyone today!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

its like a people mover at the airport...lol

[pointman]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

its like a people mover at the airport...lol

you aren't kidding, should have just played every speed horse. Oh well, pmac and I are out.

[philcski]

This 9th race is truly dreadful. Balloons expected...

[pmacdaddy]

I liked Ready Read in the finale and seems to me like he made one of the stronger off the pace moves on a day when the track was certainly favoring speed. Think I will keep an eye for him next time.