Ilman's FormBlog: W/E Beyers

blackthroatedwind · #1 12-11-2007, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

I dont have Turf War's PP's in front of me, but 16 would be a huge jump, no doubt, so it seems there would be some validity to his statements. I realized they dead heated, hence they arrived at the same final raw speed figure, but it still doesnt seem right taking both trips into account. I have ZERO clue how to read the TG Sheets, so would be interested to know what they came back.

I would be much more interested in a pace-based figure....and Z Humor had to have drowned Turf War in that case.

Perhaps CJ can help us with that.

blackthroatedwind · #2 12-11-2007, 05:50 PM

When I went to Woodbine in October for a couple of days I did a ton of work on the cards ( and, shockingly, somehow even managed to win ) and to be honest while obviously I found some figs that seemed a bit on the low side I found more that were on the high side. That probably had more to do with race dynamics than anything else.

I think a reasonable perusal of any Woodbine card will show very fair similarities between the figures horses earned this fall versus numbers earned in prior meets.

GPK · #3 12-11-2007, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would be much more interested in a pace-based figure....and Z Humor had to have drowned Turf War in that case.

Perhaps CJ can help us with that.

not sure who CJ is...but when looking at the fractions and watching the replay, I thought Z Humor ran a much better race.

blackthroatedwind · #4 12-11-2007, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

not sure who CJ is...but when looking at the fractions and watching the replay, I thought Z Humor ran a much better race.

CMOrioles. He makes pace based speed figures and other than being an Orioles fan he's very sharp.

I agree with you.

GPK · #5 12-11-2007, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

CMOrioles. He makes pace based speed figures and other than being an Orioles fan he's very sharp.

I agree with you.

poor guy...we cant all be perfect...

blackthroatedwind · #6 12-11-2007, 06:12 PM

It's a flaw that sadly I share.

GPK · #7 12-11-2007, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's a flaw that sadly I share.

and all this time I held you in such high regard...

blackthroatedwind · #8 12-11-2007, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK

and all this time I held you in such high regard...

I guess that proves you aren't perfect either.

cmorioles · #9 12-12-2007, 03:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

CMOrioles. He makes pace based speed figures and other than being an Orioles fan he's very sharp.

I agree with you.

Can't help where I was born, and I'm stubborn.

For the DeD race, I came up with 113 pace figure for the race and a 95 speed figure. This would give Z Humor about the same pace number, 113, while Turf War would get a 94.

This kind of race is precisely the reason I would never use speed figures alone. Of course, all you have to do is look at the horses in this race. Other than Z Humor, the horses filling out the superfecta where 7th, 9th, and 10th early in a 10 horse field. The horse that was 8th early was a hopeless 99 to 1 shot.