AQU: Fri/Sat Stakes

[blackthroatedwind]

I also think there's a very distinct possibility that Midnight Lute has serious distance limitations.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I also think there's a very distinct possibility that Midnight Lute has serious distance limitations.

agree, I suspect him of distance limitations moreso than Daaher

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I also think there's a very distinct possibility that Midnight Lute has serious distance limitations.

Any human sprinter (100M or 200M) would have trouble stretching out to 400M or 1/2 mile,for example, so, in that sense, ML was at a disadvantage going up against a distance horse that had early speed. And no matter how much/specifically Baffet trained him for the mile, I don't think there's any way a horse could overcome this disadvantage ---especially if it didn't figure to make the front and (try to) control the pace.

But an interesting question is which horse out there presently do you think would've been able to run down Daaher, given the way the race shaped up? This just might put that effort into perspective.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Any human sprinter (100M or 200M) would have trouble stretching out to 400M or 1/2 mile,for example, so, in that sense, ML was at a disadvantage going up against a distance horse that had early speed. And no matter how much/specifically Baffet trained him for the mile, I don't think there's any way a horse could overcome this disadvantage ---especially if it didn't figure to make the front and (try to) control the pace.

But an interesting question is which horse out there presently do you think would've been able to run down Daaher, given the way the race shaped up? This just might put that effort into perspective.

if i understand you correctly I think this is a good question. If you're asking which horse could have been substituted into that race in place of Midnite Lute that could have run down Daaher? Very hard to answer, probably not many. i really can't think of any, its hard to run down a fast horse with no pace pressure at a distance that is well within his scope.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

if i understand you correctly I think this is a good question. If you're asking which horse could have been substituted into that race in place of Midnite Lute that could have run down Daaher? Very hard to answer, probably not many. i really can't think of any, its hard to run down a fast horse with no pace pressure at a distance that is well within his scope.

I'm intrigued by the consensus as to the (lack of ) pace of that race. The splits were:

23.10 23.22 23.50 23.97

so, Daaher is slowing down at a relatively consistent pace (.10, .28, .47)

But, even though the initial fraction was slow(ish) it has yet to be mentioned that Daaher didn't break all that well, as Xchanger gapped the field at the break, coming in at the break and bumped soundly with the 4, and then was hustled by Luzzi to stay close to Xchanger in the run to the 1st quarter, and didn't take the lead until just before the 1st quarter. So, even though the 1st qtr was slow, Daaher certainly did more work than the others during that portion of the race. He ran as much as, or more so, than any other horse in the race and finished relatively straight (wavering a half path or so in either direction) in the stretch; as did Midnight Lute.

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously I understand the race dynamics and the herculean effort that it would have taken from Midnight Lute to overcome that. However, he barely made an effective run, and considering his past failures going past 7F, it is hardly unreasonable to question how far he wants to go.

[alysheba4]

i didnt care for the ride........... the horse was strangled for the first 1/2 mile. you cannot fight a horse like that, he should have engaged the other horse right away. that being said, it may or may not have changed the outcome.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm intrigued by the consensus as to the (lack of ) pace of that race. The splits were:

23.10 23.22 23.50 23.97

so, Daaher is slowing down at a relatively consistent pace (.10, .28, .47)

But, even though the initial fraction was slow(ish) it has yet to be mentioned that Daaher didn't break all that well, as Xchanger gapped the field at the break, coming in at the break and bumped soundly with the 4, and then was hustled by Luzzi to stay close to Xchanger in the run to the 1st quarter, and didn't take the lead until just before the 1st quarter. So, even though the 1st qtr was slow, Daaher certainly did more work than the others during that portion of the race. He ran as much as, or more so, than any other horse in the race and finished relatively straight (wavering a half path or so in either direction) in the stretch; as did Midnight Lute.

oh i agree with all that, I didn't mean to imply there was no pace.