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  #1  
Old 11-24-2007, 10:17 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
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Couple thoughts.....


How is Helsinki not one of the three likeliest horses in the Remsen? And, along with that, how can Shopton Lane possibly be competitive there?

In the 9th at Aqueduct, shouldn't In the Spotlight at least be somewhere in your top four?

On Lyke a Hurricane, look it's obviously a weak field, but don't you think a sharp guy like Bruce Levine would have run him on the dirt at least once if he thought he had any ability whatsoever on that surface?

In the Laurel Futurity, I recommend looking at the chart and watching the replay of Strait of Mewsina's last race. It was, however, a weak field.
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Old 11-24-2007, 10:26 AM
ArlJim78 ArlJim78 is offline
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correction, Helsinki is in the Discovery, not the Remsen.
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Old 11-24-2007, 10:26 AM
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Payson Dave Payson Dave is offline
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BTW...would you be willing to share your thoughts on John Kimmel's 2yo filly Elusive Lady?
I'm thinking that Nick Zito may be sitting on a pretty good day at Churchill today...
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  #4  
Old 11-24-2007, 11:24 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Thanks Jim. I would like him in the Remsen as well though.

I don't like Elusive Lady but it's a very difficult race to decipher. Totally different set up for her today after she loafed on the lead last time. However, it's a tough race to either like anyone or eliminate anyone.
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Old 11-24-2007, 11:36 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Couple thoughts..

How is Helsinki not one of the three likeliest horses in the Remsen? And, along with that, how can Shopton Lane possibly be competitive there?

In the 9th at Aqueduct, shouldn't In the Spotlight at least be somewhere in your top four?

On Lyke a Hurricane, look it's obviously a weak field, but don't you think a sharp guy like Bruce Levine would have run him on the dirt at least once if he thought he had any ability whatsoever on that surface?

In the Laurel Futurity, I recommend looking at the chart and watching the replay of Strait of Mewsina's last race. It was, however, a weak field.
Mewsina does look interesting but was concerned already with the wide drawn inclusions. Should be a great race..

Spotlight's OK.. appears no better to me than those I'm using..

Helsinki looks to me like he doesn't get as hot a pace to close into as he seems to need.

Lyke a Hurricane? What's the difference what Levine thought now? The blinks, Lasix and Coa are as compelling an argument for him with these as anything else.
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  #6  
Old 11-24-2007, 11:40 AM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept

Lyke a Hurricane? What's the difference what Levine thought now? The blinks, Lasix and Coa are as compelling an argument for him with these as anything else.

Did you think this through?

Trainers run horses on the turf, in general, because they are too slow to be competitive on the dirt. I am quite confident this is why Bruce Levine, his former trainer, and a perennial leading trainer, never entered him on the dirt. His opinion in this case matters a great deal to me as he knows this horse a whole helluva lot better than I do.

If he was 20-1 and you wanted to take a flyer that's fine, but he's going to be one of the favorites, and to me he is a horrendous bet at any kind of shortish price.
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  #7  
Old 11-24-2007, 11:46 AM
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Kasept Kasept is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Did you think this through? Trainers run horses on the turf, in general, because they are too slow to be competitive on the dirt. I am quite confident this is why Bruce Levine, his former trainer, and a perennial leading trainer, never entered him on the dirt. His opinion in this case matters a great deal to me as he knows this horse a whole helluva lot better than I do.

If he was 20-1 and you wanted to take a flyer that's fine, but he's going to be one of the favorites, and to me he is a horrendous bet at any kind of shortish price.
I get it. Levine thought what he thought and tried what he tried. Duggan trains him now though, and is putting blinkers on him, something he has success with.. in fact a lot of success with. It's a bad bunch and personally prefer Front Money at his 12-1 ML number, but expect an effort from Lyke under the scenario.
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
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The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #8  
Old 11-24-2007, 12:34 PM
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the_fat_man the_fat_man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Couple thoughts.....


In the Laurel Futurity, I recommend looking at the chart and watching the replay of Strait of Mewsina's last race. It was, however, a weak field.
This was a visually impressive effort but

the race was slow (relative to the other turf race of the day --2year old filly stake)

and he ran the last 1/8th slower than the penultimate 1/8th

contrast this with, for example, the last races of Seaspeak and (especially) La Mina, both also stretching out but having accelerated the last 1/8th
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