closers going short in the mud

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Caught the tail end of ATR today, and Tony Black made an observation that's worth repeating.

Steve noted that at the BC, closers seemed to be doing much better in sprints than in routes (e.g., Midnight Lute). Tony hypothesized that this was because riders are sometimes more eager to establish a forward position in sprints, especially in muddy conditions, when you might have a group of perennial front-runners who are not used to having muck kicked up in their faces. Consequently, a speed duel might develop much earlier, relatively speaking, in a sprint than in a route, setting up a sustained runner even over the shorter distance.

Though some on here are no doubt wise enough not to fall into this trap, my first inclination has always been to consider closers at an even bigger disadvantage in sprints than in routes, and to downgrade their chances without fully appreciating the potential effect of the pace. I guess the moral of the story is don't be too eager to discard a closer in a sprint when there's reason to believe that the early fractions will be relatively quicker than normal (such as the presence of multiple need-to-lead types, or when there's a particularly messy track).

right.
In sloppy sprints:
There is the initial period of time where most of the field goes for the lead. Maybe just a few of the better horses stay out of the fray and recieve a confident ride.
Of the majority who prematurely went for the lead, half of them make the lead and enter a torrid pace, the other half are too slow and spend their energy just the same. The best of the horses who made the torrid pace will run fast early and make up the top 3 entering the stretch.

This creates a window of opportunity.

If one of the horses who stayed out of the fray also happens to be the best horse, they will get an opportunity to make last run. = the slow horses have since faded and the 3 fast horses in the lead are staggering home in the stretch. Now all the classy sprinter needs is to handle the slop while he kicks home.



In the Classic:
Curlin won easy because he was the best horse. He also wasn't hampered by the surface, and Hard Spun also went out on suicidal fractions. There wasn't any secret dynamic at play.