Who will be burning money?

NoChanceToDance · #1 10-26-2007, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

i must be the only person alive who thinks dylan thomas is a sucker bet.

No, i'm with you. Although he is the best horse in the race, and should just toy with these, the Arc stat is hard to overlook and now the turf as gone soft, i don't think he has any shot at all. In fact, i don't think he will even run. They have too much to lose with him. Why risk it when he has already proved himself to be a very, very good horse this year.

I don't think the fav in the Juvie fillies is a good bet, either. There is so much pace in the race. Indian Blessing looked out on her last legs in the last furlong last out, she is going further this time and with more pace pushing her harder. I think she is dreadful value. A closer should win this one. Izarra would be my guess.

brockguy · #2 10-26-2007, 08:44 AM

if dylan performs 5 lengths below his best, he still should win.. Hes known not to like soft ground but the ground was still soft when he won the arc and seems to take his races well.. I wouldnt be putting the mortgage on him though..

oh and i think we may be saying what a great price DCat is when he hoses up this evening....

NoChanceToDance · #3 10-26-2007, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

if dylan performs 5 lengths below his best, he still should win.. Hes known not to like soft ground but the ground was still soft when he won the arc and seems to take his races well.. I wouldnt be putting the mortgage on him though..

oh and i think we may be saying what a great price DCat is when he hoses up this evening....

The ground was only just on the soft side of good for the Arc. Maybe even a bit quicker than that so the jocks were reporting.

It will be european soft come the off time of the turf on Saturday. 100% chance of rain most of Saturday afternoon. I'm 75% sure they won't even run him, he has far too much to lose.

Discreet Kitty is interesting. On his Cigar Mile form he will win this doing handstands, but at 6/4 you have to oppose him. I don't think he is a big price at all. If he wins, he wins but currently, you have to oppose him. Gottcha Gold is big value ew in my opinion.

brockguy · #4 10-26-2007, 08:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

The ground was only just on the soft side of good for the Arc. Maybe even a bit quicker than that so the jocks were reporting.

It will be european soft come the off time of the turf on Saturday. 100% chance of rain most of Saturday afternoon. I'm 75% sure they won't even run him, he has far too much to lose.

Discreet Kitty is interesting. On his Cigar Mile form he will win this doing handstands, but at 6/4 you have to oppose him. I don't think he is a big price at all. If he wins, he wins but currently, you have to oppose him. Gottcha Gold is big value ew in my opinion.

do u think they wont run him?? im not sure really how bad the ground is, or how bad the ground can get.. if its soft as we call it, id say he'll run but any worse and you could be spot on. the field looks so bad that he should be 2nd at least no matter what ground they have..

The only thing that scares me about D Cat is his ridiculous workout time last week.. If hes back to his best, he can win this by double digits...

NoChanceToDance · #5 10-26-2007, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brockguy

do u think they wont run him?? im not sure really how bad the ground is, or how bad the ground can get.. if its soft as we call it, id say he'll run but any worse and you could be spot on. the field looks so bad that he should be 2nd at least no matter what ground they have..

The only thing that scares me about D Cat is his ridiculous workout time last week.. If hes back to his best, he can win this by double digits...

They have far to much to rsk with Dylan. Everyone still expects him to win. This is 99% likely to be his last run before he is reitred. Getting beaten in a weak renewal of the turf won't be something they are comtemplating. We have all seen that he is a good few lengths better on fast ground.

Last week, Monmouth were reporting a dry week and expected firm turf at the weekend. Did you see the state of the track yesterday? The dirt is sloppy and they were off the turf yesterday. More rain expected today (80% chance) and 100% chance of rain all afternoon on Saturday. Jeremy Noseda said the ground was "good to soft" yesterday. They were expecting it to be a little softer today.

Magnier is already getting worried about the stats of Arc winners, and it wouldn't take much for him to pull him out in my opinion.

Even if they only get 50% of the rain they are predicted to get, the turf will be european soft on Saturday.

You're right about Discreet Cat, if he's back to his best he could run the mile twice and win both times, but that is a big IF....... and i wouldn't be able to back him, just hoping he was back to his best. They said he seemed really well last time but in the back of my mind things didn't seem right, and i get the same feeling this time. Godolphin are keen to win the Classic, and if he was back to his very best why aren't they going for that, especially now Coolmore have a runner in it.

NoChanceToDance · #6 10-26-2007, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're 75% sure they are not going to run? Based on what? You think they flew him across the Atlantic to scratch because it's soft?

For one, it was firm when they flew over and at that point there was no talk about it becoming soft.

For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run.

Three. They have a few other runners with half decent chances, it's not as if they have spent lots by just taking him over not to run.

Four. DT has shown he isn't the same horse or anywhere near when running on soft ground. With this likely to be his last run (if he does run) Coolmore will be gutted if he retires on a low note, which is more than likely on soft ground.

Five. The horse has much more to lose than to gain...... does he have anything to gain by winning this? Not really.

Six. The coolmore team are getting very concerned about the Arc winners stats for this race, the soft ground gives them a real excuse to take him out and forget about those dreadful stats. He had a fairly hard race there, and their concerns could be justified.

Seven. Before the Arc they were leaving it until late about whether to run him or not. If the ground was deemed too soft they would have pulled him out.

There are more than enough reasons for him not to run in the Turf. I Cons of running greatly outweigh the pros of running.

ArlJim78 · #7 10-26-2007, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

For one, it was firm when they flew over and at that point there was no talk about it becoming soft.

For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run.

this is the main reason that I'm considering some type of small play against him. this is often when things go awry when plans are modified in the afterglow of a big win. "hey! lets go win that BC race in three weeks. DT will trounce that field". by rights he should clean their clocks tomorrow because he no doubt lays over the field, but there are many variables in play that could trip him up also.

#8 10-26-2007, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

For one, it was firm when they flew over and at that point there was no talk about it becoming soft.

For two, before the Arc they weren't really interested about coming to this race anyway. They even said if they won the Arc (which they did) they wouldn't be going to America with him. I don't think they will be too bothered if he doesn't run.

Three. They have a few other runners with half decent chances, it's not as if they have spent lots by just taking him over not to run.

Four. DT has shown he isn't the same horse or anywhere near when running on soft ground. With this likely to be his last run (if he does run) Coolmore will be gutted if he retires on a low note, which is more than likely on soft ground.

Five. The horse has much more to lose than to gain...... does he have anything to gain by winning this? Not really.

Six. The coolmore team are getting very concerned about the Arc winners stats for this race, the soft ground gives them a real excuse to take him out and forget about those dreadful stats. He had a fairly hard race there, and their concerns could be justified.

Seven. Before the Arc they were leaving it until late about whether to run him or not. If the ground was deemed too soft they would have pulled him out.

There are more than enough reasons for him not to run in the Turf. I Cons of running greatly outweigh the pros of running.

Eight. Thanks for the insight.

Ten. Oh bother! Tally ho!! I forgot nine!

Eleven. He'll run.

NoChanceToDance · #9 10-26-2007, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

Eight. Thanks for the insight.

Ten. Oh bother! Tally ho!! I forgot nine!

Eleven. He'll run.

and you know that for a fact, do you?

I'm not saying he will definitley get scratched, but there is a big chance of it happening, and the more rain they get the more likely he will be scratched.

I really don't see what they will gain by running him.

#10 10-26-2007, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

and you know that for a fact, do you?

I'm not saying he will definitley get scratched, but there is a big chance of it happening, and the more rain they get the more likely he will be scratched.

I really don't see what they will gain by running him.

What do you get a prize if he doesn't run? Or are you just batshit insane with the essays?

NoChanceToDance · #11 10-26-2007, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So when he runs, what are you going to say? I have neither the time, nor the energy to dissect each point you make and I am not trying to be rude. But over the last few days I think people are going nuts. We've heard cancelling races, off the turf, jocks boycotting and now seemingly the biggest cinch on the day is scratching because of the tainted reasons you have above.

The Arc stats are misleading, take a good look at them, or better yet, watch the Youbet show BTW did, it discusses it. He has made his mark and will be a very high commodity as a sire when he retires. Nothing he does tomorrow will taint that. He has had a unbelievable career. He'll run.

If he runs i will be surprised. Aidan isn't the sort of trainer who will run his horses just for the sake of running them.

Tainted reasons? If those aren't very good reasons not to run, i don't know what are the good reasons.

If the ground is very soft, which there is every chance it could be, he will get stuffed. You clearly have no idea of how ground dependant this horse is.

The BC turf was never the plan with him, i was first surprised when they said they were actually going to run him. It was never the plan. As i said, before the Arc they said they doubted he was going, and they said if he was to win, America would be well and truly off the cards.

The Arc stats are misleading? 0-8, or is it 0-10 Arc winners? If Magnier is concerned, that is enough for me to be a little concerned to.

If he runs and gets stuffed tomorrow, it won't help his sire status. His Arc win was the best performance of his career. They would much prefer to retire him with that clear in the mind of everyone.

I will ask you again, what does he have to gain by running in this race? The answer you are looking for is nothing.

All the talk over here is that he would be a very doubtful starter if the rain does arrive on Saturday.

ArlJim78 · #12 10-26-2007, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So when he runs, what are you going to say? I have neither the time, nor the energy to dissect each point you make and I am not trying to be rude. But over the last few days I think people are going nuts. We've heard cancelling races, off the turf, jocks boycotting and now seemingly the biggest cinch on the day is scratching because of the tainted reasons you have above.

The Arc stats are misleading, take a good look at them, or better yet, watch the Youbet show BTW did, it discusses it. He has made his mark and will be a very high commodity as a sire when he retires. Nothing he does tomorrow will taint that. He has had a unbelievable career. He'll run.

the guy simply thinks there is a chance he won't run, and gave his reasons for it. why is it necessary for you to imply he is nuts? why does every poster have to pass your sanity test or else get badgered to no end? its so tiresome.

NoChanceToDance · #13 10-26-2007, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the guy simply thinks there is a chance he won't run, and gave his reasons for it. why is it necessary for you to imply he is nuts? why does every poster have to pass your sanity test or else get badgered to no end? its so tiresome.

Thank you, Arljim.

2Hot4TV · #14 10-27-2007, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the guy simply thinks there is a chance he won't run, and gave his reasons for it. why is it necessary for you to imply he is nuts? why does every poster have to pass your sanity test or else get badgered to no end? its so tiresome.

Jim, he lives alone for a reason.

ArlJim78 · #15 10-27-2007, 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Not sure exactly what i did wrong in this thread other than question an outlandish statement. Which, as we now see was an outlandish statement because Dylan Thomas IS running. See anyone can claim to be an insider and pull numbers out of their ass, but some people actually take this stuff serious. 75% to scratch?? Somone better tell that to the connections and all of the people that have bet Dylan Thomas today. Good call guys!!!

whats wrong with an outlandish opinion? thats what a longshot is.
what you did wrong is that you hound certain peoples opinions over and over as if you are superior. of course it was likely that he would run, you're not a hero to point that out.

NoChanceToDance · #16 10-27-2007, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Not sure exactly what i did wrong in this thread other than question an outlandish statement. Which, as we now see was an outlandish statement because Dylan Thomas IS running. See anyone can claim to be an insider and pull numbers out of their ass, but some people actually take this stuff serious. 75% to scratch?? Somone better tell that to the connections and all of the people that have bet Dylan Thomas today. Good call guys!!!

Am i not allowed an honest opinion?

I thought it was very unlikely that Dylan Thomas would run with all of the rain forecast, given what they have said about soft turf before with this. Anyway, who has said he is sure to run? Last i read on any of the racing websites was that Aidan O'Brien was "very concerned about soft ground".

I gave valid reasons why they could (and maybe should scratch him) and i got my head biten off.

I take it you have never been wrong before?

Am i bothered that it looks like i was wrong.

It's just like someone making a call saying a 100/1 will win.

NoChanceToDance · #17 10-26-2007, 12:25 PM

Can i just ask......

English Channel and Better Talk Now, i know they are two of your best turf horses at this sort of trip and they seem to hold their form very well, BUT.... how good actually are they? I only get to see these horses once or twice a year and i can't really get a hold of their form.

I know English Channel didn't finish too far in front of Stream Of Gold on a recent start (was that his last start?) and Stream Of Gold was only really a handicapper over here.

What about Better Talk Now? I know less about him other than he finished second in this last year, so he must be half decent.

If they do run DT will he be able to win on the bridle? My worry is that he won't find those extra gears he has in this soft ground that is likely. I still don't think they are keen to run him, but it's weather they think his class can see him through, but i'm just not sure.

brianwspencer · #18 10-26-2007, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Can i just ask......

English Channel and Better Talk Now, i know they are two of your best turf horses at this sort of trip and they seem to hold their form very well, BUT.... how good actually are they? I only get to see these horses once or twice a year and i can't really get a hold of their form.

I know English Channel didn't finish too far in front of Stream Of Gold on a recent start (was that his last start?) and Stream Of Gold was only really a handicapper over here.

What about Better Talk Now? I know less about him other than he finished second in this last year, so he must be half decent.

If they do run DT will he be able to win on the bridle? My worry is that he won't find those extra gears he has in this soft ground that is likely. I still don't think they are keen to run him, but it's weather they think his class can see him through, but i'm just not sure.

Stream of Gold also just ran fourth behind Cloudy's Knight, Quijano, and Ask at Woodbine last Sunday.

How would you rate Quijano and Ask? It might go a long way in determining what kind of animal Stream of Gold is/has become since coming here, and that might help you get a feel for English Channel, etc.

Also, if you watch the race where English Channel "didn't finish too far in front of" Stream of Gold, you'll see that there's a huge reason for it. If you haven't actually seen that race, you absolutely need to before using Stream of Gold's performance vis a vis English Channel in that race as any sort of measuring stick.

EC's barely beating him could (and should) have been an open lengths romp.