BC: Spr; FMS; D-Mile (PP's/Odds)

Scav · #1 10-17-2007, 08:50 PM

I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance

ArlJim78 · #2 10-17-2007, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance

i guess he is a bounce candidate then?

Scav · #3 10-17-2007, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i guess he is a bounce candidate then?

I don't know, Byk was mentioning something today how he is a huge horse and they have problems over the track. That last race impressed me the day I watched it, there is something about cali sprinters that drive me nuts. But yeah, he should be a bounce candiate because that is such a huge improvement.

Cannon Shell · #4 10-17-2007, 10:01 PM

How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...

Scav · #5 10-17-2007, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...

He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.

Cannon Shell · #6 10-17-2007, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.

not that much...

Scav · #7 10-17-2007, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

not that much...

Personally, I like his numbers, ALOT. They have made me a better handicapper, just not recently. I do think that some numbers, especially the ones with 4w4w built in can be a little high but I go with them. If anything, they help me eliminate a horse like Tiago, which without TG's is a horse I would 'toss' in but because of TG's I am able to confidently eliminate him, he beats me, he beats me but I doubt it.

Scav · #8 10-17-2007, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Horses don't bounce. Especially off of a 2 month layoff.

So your saying that a huge effort doesn't effect horses?

Scav · #9 10-17-2007, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.

The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.

I agree that the bounce is overused. Maybe I should use regression instead because no one uses it. But regression is a VERY REAL thing when its comes to patterns, and figuring them out can help you play against a 4/5 horse that looks like he can't lose or toss a 'hot' horse because of his last couple.

2Hot4TV · #10 10-20-2007, 08:48 AM

I will be rooting for Smokey Stover, I like the lighting bolt blaze he has.

geeker2 · #11 10-20-2007, 09:28 AM

Bordonaro, Fred Carrillo , Daniel A. Cassella, William Spawr, Fred Carrillo & Daniel A Cassella

They must have relatives in Oceanport...he gets my vote for finishing last.

Cannon Shell · #12 10-17-2007, 10:36 PM

I asked a guy who uses sheets to claim horses a question last fall when outside horses were winning everything at Keeneland (you couldnt be too wide). What about all the ground lost in these poly races where the inside is horrible and the horses will be getting numbers higher than they should because of the way the track plays? He laughed and said turn the sheet upside down on the poly.

ELA · #13 10-17-2007, 11:42 PM

In the Sprint, I agree Baffert's horse put in a monster race last out. However, I think this could possibly be a very different animal going 6 rather than 7. If he walks over the field by open lengths, so be it. Wouldn't be the first time I am wrong at the track, LOL.

I am the first to admit that I am biased, but I am pulling for Smokey Stover.

Eric

Gauchos0522 · #14 10-17-2007, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.

The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.

Couldn't agree more. I've seen more "bounces" happen due to those 2 especially the latter that I find it hard to believe a horse coming off two months rest to be a canidate to run badly because of that previous effort.