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  #1  
Old 10-17-2007, 12:31 PM
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AeWingnut AeWingnut is offline
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whoever gets Corey Nakatani
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  #2  
Old 10-17-2007, 08:50 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance
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  #3  
Old 10-17-2007, 09:13 PM
ArlJim78 ArlJim78 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance
i guess he is a bounce candidate then?
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  #4  
Old 10-17-2007, 09:47 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
i guess he is a bounce candidate then?
I don't know, Byk was mentioning something today how he is a huge horse and they have problems over the track. That last race impressed me the day I watched it, there is something about cali sprinters that drive me nuts. But yeah, he should be a bounce candiate because that is such a huge improvement.
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  #5  
Old 10-17-2007, 10:01 PM
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Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
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How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...
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  #6  
Old 10-17-2007, 10:03 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...
He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.
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  #7  
Old 10-17-2007, 10:05 PM
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Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.
not that much...
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  #8  
Old 10-17-2007, 10:03 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Horses don't bounce. Especially off of a 2 month layoff.
So your saying that a huge effort doesn't effect horses?
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  #9  
Old 10-17-2007, 10:16 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.

The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.
I agree that the bounce is overused. Maybe I should use regression instead because no one uses it. But regression is a VERY REAL thing when its comes to patterns, and figuring them out can help you play against a 4/5 horse that looks like he can't lose or toss a 'hot' horse because of his last couple.
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  #10  
Old 10-20-2007, 08:48 AM
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2Hot4TV 2Hot4TV is offline
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I will be rooting for Smokey Stover, I like the lighting bolt blaze he has.
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  #11  
Old 10-17-2007, 10:36 PM
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Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
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I asked a guy who uses sheets to claim horses a question last fall when outside horses were winning everything at Keeneland (you couldnt be too wide). What about all the ground lost in these poly races where the inside is horrible and the horses will be getting numbers higher than they should because of the way the track plays? He laughed and said turn the sheet upside down on the poly.
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  #12  
Old 10-17-2007, 10:21 PM
Gauchos0522 Gauchos0522 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.

The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.
Couldn't agree more. I've seen more "bounces" happen due to those 2 especially the latter that I find it hard to believe a horse coming off two months rest to be a canidate to run badly because of that previous effort.
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