Final Verdict ... Fog Is A Fraud

[JJP]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

I am not going to get into the arguement about LITF. I haven't read this entire thread and I was just replying back to the questions you asked. All I can say is that LITF is a lot better horse than he showed this past weekend and something is definitely wrong with him. He is nowhere near the horse he was last year. While he isn't a great horse, he is a really good one, and I just think he isn't a fraud, and is a classy animal. A horse loses a couple of races after he had won 10+ races in a row and he is considered a fraud...Well I guess Secretariat and Spectacular Bid were frauds too. Horses are always called frauds after having huge win streaks and then losing. People's emotions take the best of them because they have such high expectations for the horse and are extremely disappointed when the animal actually does lose so they start bad-mouthing the horse. LITF has something wrong with him...that is why they are considering retiring him. He was never into the race this past weekend and he was never himself. LITF beat Kelly's Landing in the Aristrides and KL is quite a good sprinter. And yes he was never fully extended in the races in which he lost. He just didn't try.

It is the same with Lawyer Ron. LR won all of his starts on dirt except for the toughest race in his career, the KD, and in doing so had to go into surgery immediately after the Derby to remove a chip. He hasn't worked since. Yet people still seem to say he was overrated and overhyped. Same with Afleet Alex when he had a lung infection in the Rebel. Everyone said that he was overrated and overhyped too....well he showed everyone who said that a thing or two.

I don't know anyone who called Secretariat or Spectacular Bid a fraud....or even Lawyer Ron. Lost in the Fog was overrated because he was not tested during his winning streak. Who was the best horse he beat? Egg Head? The owners did a great job in maximizing profits with the horse but instead of prepping for the BC in the Vosburgh, they stayed in NoCal and ran against 3 nobodies. Big mistake. And he was in real deep water against the top older sprinters (and another good 3YO sprinter in Silver Train) in the Breeders Cup.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by JJP

I don't know anyone who called Secretariat or Spectacular Bid a fraud....or even Lawyer Ron. Lost in the Fog was overrated because he was not tested during his winning streak. Who was the best horse he beat? Egg Head? The owners did a great job in maximizing profits with the horse but instead of prepping for the BC in the Vosburgh, they stayed in NoCal and ran against 3 nobodies. Big mistake. And he was in real deep water against the top older sprinters (and another good 3YO sprinter in Silver Train) in the Breeders Cup.

No one ever called Secretariat and Spectacular Bid frauds...I just meant that since they had lost a few races that they were frauds too. I was being sarcastic. It was really a bad example on my part because LITF will never be anywhere close to being as good as those two great horse...no where near it.

As for LR, everyone calls LR overrated and overhyped. In a thread that asked who was the most overrated/overhyped horse so far this year...LR got the most votes. There are very few who will defend LR.

[blackthroatedwind]

Lawyer Ron is indefensible as a top horse. Perhaps that is why nobody would defend him. He is a nice horse, who won some races, and ran consistently slow races. He was simply better than his competition. Not his fault but it doesn't make him a top horse.

Much of the same could be said for Lost in the Fog. He is a more talented horse, however, than Lawyer Ron.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Lawyer Ron is indefensible as a top horse. Perhaps that is why nobody would defend him. He is a nice horse, who won some races, and ran consistently slow races. He was simply better than his competition. Not his fault but it doesn't make him a top horse.

Much of the same could be said for Lost in the Fog. He is a more talented horse, however, than Lawyer Ron.

Steppenwolfer got third in the Derby and a fourth in the Belmont, and I guarantee you that if LR returns to the races in the same form he was earlier this spring, he will "again" be a much better horse than Steppenwolfer.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Steppenwolfer got third in the Derby and a fourth in the Belmont, and I guarantee you that if LR returns to the races in the same form he was earlier this spring, he will "again" be a much better horse than Steppenwolfer.

Steppenwolfer is a plodding mediocrity. Telling me where horses finished in races doesn't fool me into thinking they are particularly talented. Perhaps, and seemingly, you are fooled by this. You shouldn't be.

Lawyer Ron was the most overrated horse on the TC trail. I kind of like him, he's a neat horse, but he's not supremely talented. It isn't a criticism...it is reality.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Steppenwolfer is a plodding mediocrity. Telling me where horses finished in races doesn't fool me into thinking they are particularly talented. Perhaps, and seemingly, you are fooled by this. You shouldn't be.

Lawyer Ron was the most overrated horse on the TC trail. I kind of like him, he's a neat horse, but he's not supremely talented. It isn't a criticism...it is reality.

I consider both Steppenwolfer and Lawyer Ron to be more than a "plodding mediocrity" in the grand scheme of things. Lawyer Ron isn't the most talented horse there is...I will admit that. However, he is, like you said, a neat horse and if he comes back into form from his injuries then I see him as being a solid Grade II animal which will be very good considering the depth of talent in this crop he is in. Also, I believe that had the circumstances been different in the Derby that he would have finished in the top three. I thought he had one more race in him and was wrong. It was too late. Holthus had already done him in. I just wish I would have known about the chip before he went into the Derby.

[sham]

Lost In The Fog is a victim of his own reputation in some ways. Too much is expected from him. If one looks back over the last 25 years, you will see that the top sprinters lose often. It is so easy to lose a sprint race. All it takes is a bad break or even just a bad post position. I agree that LITF has not beat a quality field, and may never do so. He only has to do that once, and coupled with his other exploits, his career would be very satisfying. I feel sure he will be retired soon...again a victim of his own reputation because his connection fear his stud fee will suffer if they let him lose again. Assuming the horse is sound, I'd give him a short break, then bring him back in a couple easy prep races, maybe on his home track, then shoot for the moon in the BC sprint as his last race. Who knows, he might get lucky and go out on top.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Lawyer Ron is indefensible as a top horse. Perhaps that is why nobody would defend him. He is a nice horse, who won some races, and ran consistently slow races. He was simply better than his competition. Not his fault but it doesn't make him a top horse.

Much of the same could be said for Lost in the Fog. He is a more talented horse, however, than Lawyer Ron.

I don't know if I would call Lawyer Ron slow, he did run a 0 on Thorograph and ran a Beyer at 106 or 107, that's not exactly slow and those numbers were comparable with the other Top 3yo's before the Triple Crown races. I really liked this horse and still do, the thing I didn't want to admit before the Kentucky Derby was that he was over the top with all of that racing, he had to go backwards at some point without taking a break, that was my error in judgement. I think the jury is still very much out on him, he may never be able to improve after his injury, but I certainly would not say he is slow, and if he comes back, he could improve. With that said, I do not think he's as talented as Bernardini or Jazil, but he could certainly hold his own against a Blue Grass Cat or Sunriver....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I don't know if I would call Lawyer Ron slow, he did run a 0 on Thorograph and ran a Beyer at 106 or 107, that's not exactly slow and those numbers were comparable with the other Top 3yo's before the Triple Crown races. I really liked this horse and still do, the thing I didn't want to admit before the Kentucky Derby was that he was over the top with all of that racing, he had to go backwards at some point without taking a break, that was my error in judgement. I think the jury is still very much out on him, he may never be able to improve after his injury, but I certainly would not say he is slow, and if he comes back, he could improve. With that said, I do not think he's as talented as Bernardini or Jazil, but he could certainly hold his own against a Blue Grass Cat or Sunriver....

His Beyer's were consistently in the mid 90s.....hardly special. The one figure he got over 100, a 106, was at Louisianna Downs, where if you followed racing closely you may have noticed many horses shipping there and improving dramatically and then not being able to reproduce those numbers out of town. The 106 Lawyer Ron makes no sense both in relation to his consistent performances elsewhere but also for the other competitors in that race.

Lawyer Ron is not " slow " in relation to the majority of the members of his, or really any, generation. But, he is slow in relation to the majority of horses considered genuine TC contendors.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

His Beyer's were consistently in the mid 90s.....hardly special. The one figure he got over 100, a 106, was at Louisianna Downs, where if you followed racing closely you may have noticed many horses shipping there and improving dramatically and then not being able to reproduce those numbers out of town. The 106 Lawyer Ron makes no sense both in relation to his consistent performances elsewhere but also for the other competitors in that race.

Lawyer Ron is not " slow " in relation to the majority of the members of his, or really any, generation. But, he is slow in relation to the majority of horses considered genuine TC contendors.

He still ran a 0 on Thorograph, more than once and at Oaklawn, going into the Derby, his Thoro's were as good or better than many...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

He still ran a 0 on Thorograph, more than once and at Oaklawn, going into the Derby, his Thoro's were as good or better than many...

Just further confirming the lack of value of the Thorographs.

[JJP]

Lawyer Ron was overrated by some, but not by many who never considered him a viable Triple Crown horse. He could be a very good sprinter, however, and I don't think its a lock that LITF would drill him at 6f. Actually I'd like to see them both in a 6f race and I think LR would be better value than LITF.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by JJP

Lawyer Ron was overrated by some, but not by many who never considered him a viable Triple Crown horse. He could be a very good sprinter, however, and I don't think its a lock that LITF would drill him at 6f. Actually I'd like to see them both in a 6f race and I think LR would be better value than LITF.

Well, that's not what just about everyone on this message board said. Just about everyone said that LR was overrated/overhyped. I'll pull the thread back up this evening so you can read it.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I don't know if I would call Lawyer Ron slow, he did run a 0 on Thorograph and ran a Beyer at 106 or 107, that's not exactly slow and those numbers were comparable with the other Top 3yo's before the Triple Crown races. I really liked this horse and still do, the thing I didn't want to admit before the Kentucky Derby was that he was over the top with all of that racing, he had to go backwards at some point without taking a break, that was my error in judgement. I think the jury is still very much out on him, he may never be able to improve after his injury, but I certainly would not say he is slow, and if he comes back, he could improve. With that said, I do not think he's as talented as Bernardini or Jazil, but he could certainly hold his own against a Blue Grass Cat or Sunriver....

I think that he is at about the same level of talent as Jazil and Bluegrass Cat, and is better than Sunriver or Steppenwolfer. I don't think he would have ever beaten the top horses such as Barbaro or Bernardini, but he is a neat little horse who I think is more than capable of running in Grade II company which is most likely what BC, Jazil, Sunriver, and Stepp will be running in by the end of the year. I don't see any of these horses besides Bernardini going on to be true Grade I horses. Not with FA, Invasor, and some other three year olds that will now start to step up to the plate.