Calder Pick 5 for Saturday

[DerbyCat]

Being from California, I follow the horses and jockeys from here closely and that certainly baises me (and not necessarily for the better)... but I am smart enough to realize that Russell Baze is minor league compared to the jocks he's racing against (and my home track is Bay Meadows where he is a god)... with that said, Russell won't win two races on Saturday but he can win and usually does it when least expected, so I have to chose between Victorina and LITF (or neither). I don't feel good about LITF (although I LOVE this horse) because he doesn't do well in large fields - I don't see him getting the lead and if he has to work too hard in the stretch I don't think Russell will be able to get him across first... I think I like the 20-1 longshot, Weigelia's chances better than Fog (that hurts me to say) I think Victorina has a shot in the 7th and I'll use her but if she wins, I don't believe LITF will. Just my thoughts...

My picks:

R7 - pp 1,7,8
R8 - pp 3,4
R9 - pp 5,6
R10 - pp 1,7
R11 - pp 5,7,10

Don't know exactly how I'm going to play these yet, I know it will be on a couple different tickets...

Good luck on Saturday everyone.

Originally Posted by DerbyCat

Being from California, I follow the horses and jockeys from here closely and that certainly baises me (and not necessarily for the better)... but I am smart enough to realize that Russell Baze is minor league compared to the jocks he's racing against (and my home track is Bay Meadows where he is a god)... with that said, Russell won't win two races on Saturday but he can win and usually does it when least expected, so I have to chose between Victorina and LITF (or neither). I don't feel good about LITF (although I LOVE this horse) because he doesn't do well in large fields - I don't see him getting the lead and if he has to work too hard in the stretch I don't think Russell will be able to get him across first... I think I like the 20-1 longshot, Weigelia's chances better than Fog (that hurts me to say) I think Victorina has a shot in the 7th and I'll use her but if she wins, I don't believe LITF will. Just my thoughts...

My picks:

R7 - pp 1,7,8
R8 - pp 3,4
R9 - pp 5,6
R10 - pp 1,7
R11 - pp 5,7,10

Don't know exactly how I'm going to play these yet, I know it will be on a couple different tickets...

Good luck on Saturday everyone.

The more I look at Weigelia, the more I like this horse. I think we will get every bit of 20-1 on this horse if not more. Bling and Dubai stand head and shoulders above their fields. If someone other than those 2 win then so be it. But I have got to make a stand by singling those two. I am sticking to my original ticket and playing it 6x for a total of $600.

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

The more I look at Weigelia, the more I like this horse. I think we will get every bit of 20-1 on this horse if not more. Bling and Dubai stand head and shoulders above their fields. If someone other than those 2 win then so be it. But I have got to make a stand by singling those two. I am sticking to my original ticket and playing it 6x for a total of $600.

I personally think you are safe singling those two. There is just nobody in either of those fields that looks like they could really beat them. Singles do lose all the time - but I think you should feel comfortable singling them. If I play I am singling both as well. I agree about Weigelia also. Not a huge fan of the class jump, but I do like the turf to dirt angle and Lezcano aboard. Running up front against Lost in the Fog may not be anyones cup of tea though. If the price is right - around 20/1 - then I may have to jump in. If not, oh well. My personal choice in here is Gaff, though. Good luck with your ticket(s) - hope you hit big!

[zippyneedsawin]

I like Weigelia a lot too. But he's 12-1 morining line and I think a little bit of a wise guy horse.. I'd be surprised if he's higher than 8-1 in the race.
If I can't trim down my Pick 5 ticket more than where it is right now(which is a lot), I may end up playing some sort of pick 3 singling DE and TMB and taking ALL in either the first or last leg for $10 or $20, and hope a longer shot wins the race. Of course, the problem is if a longer shot doesn't win, it won't pay enough to cover the original bet!! Sigh..

[DerbyCat]

Zippy - Trust in the Derby Trail posters... I truly believe if you take a little from everyone here, they will lead you to the winning ticket - I've been following the advice of others here (and my own capping and knowledge) and my account is currently up over 200% in the past month! (yes, you folks here give great advice... just listen to each other!)

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I like Weigelia a lot too. But he's 12-1 morining line and I think a little bit of a wise guy horse.. I'd be surprised if he's higher than 8-1 in the race.
If I can't trim down my Pick 5 ticket more than where it is right now(which is a lot), I may end up playing some sort of pick 3 singling DE and TMB and taking ALL in either the first or last leg for $10 or $20, and hope a longer shot wins the race. Of course, the problem is if a longer shot doesn't win, it won't pay enough to cover the original bet!! Sigh..

Pick 3 is not a bad way to go. You are basically playing a win bet if you single two legs of the pick 3. You might be in a case where a horse pays more for the win than the pick 3 pays.

[ceejay]

I see LITF as vulnerable. My top choice is Gold storm but going deep.

I love Frolicing in the 7th at 6-1 ML.
Also deep in R8, top choice is the 4, followed closely by 3,10.
Near-single of Bling in R9
I like Leave me alone if DE doesn't fire in R10

$155 P5 play on 23 tickets, pre-scratch:
http://petrophysics.biz/stuff/capture4.bmp

[bogeydaman]

Agree with you on Frolicing also. Believe you will get a price also as the shippers usually get bet much harder than the locals on a day like today. The only one I like on this card better is Villainage in the 4th. IMO this has been by far the most impressive of the local 2 year olds and each time this one has gone off bigger than its morning line. Hope it happens again.

[ceejay]

Actually I'm reconfiguring the play with the YLD turf, downgrading What a soldier and also singling Frolicing.