7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

I also see Sumwon settling in the second flight (if Classic Tiara stays in, Sumwon might not have a choice), and making her move when Gazzella moves. If there's anyone she's willing to settle in that way for, she's likely willing to do it for Willie. If it's her and Gazzella halfway down the stretch, Sumwon outfinishes Gazzella if Sumwon's on her game. And the fact that Chuck thinks that she got something out of her last work reassures me on that front, despite the lay-off.

As far as post-time odds, I agree with Wingnut. I think bettors eyeballing the pps will be looking for a little value as an alternate to the lukewarm ml favorite -- Sumwon's pps certainly stand out for that purpose -- and they then pound her down to 5-2.

Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.

[Scav]

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

you are nuts...but that isn't attacking you like old school happenings.

She will open up at 1/2 and drift up to 2/1.

Don't get your panties in a bunch my friend, I'll slap you silly with my arlington program on wednesday

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

you are nuts...but that isn't attacking you like old school happenings.

She will open up at 1/2 and drift up to 2/1.

Don't get your panties in a bunch my friend, I'll slap you silly with my arlington program on wednesday

lay off the pipe man, she won't be 2:1.
the 8 was 6:5 last time and the five is an Assmussen horse that finished right behind the 8 last time so should take some money.
i think 4:1 is very possible, if not higher.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

lay off the pipe man, she won't be 2:1.
the 8 was 6:5 last time and the five is an Assmussen horse that finished right behind the 8 last time so should take some money.
i think 4:1 is very possible, if not higher.

Not a chance. Not with that 83 BSF staring people in the face and not with the DT contingent pounding her down.

2-1 or 5-2.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not a chance. Not with that 83 BSF staring people in the face and not with the DT contingent pounding her down.

2-1 or 5-2.

Exactly. This is what I meant when I said her pps will stand out.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.

There are a few unknowns in this race. I hesitate to put my retirement on her. Npw if she were to go off at her M/L I would put my paycheck on her. The risk vs reward would be enough then.

Willie should know a thing or two about Queen of the Ridge...He used to ride her so maybe he knows what she will do. I would hope that Gazella presses that one while Willie walks on by at the top of the stretch and pulls away by oh...3 at the 1/16th pole.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

There are a few unknowns in this race. I hesitate to put my retirement on her. Npw if she were to go off at her M/L I would put my paycheck on her. The risk vs reward would be enough then.

Willie should know a thing or two about Queen of the Ridge...He used to ride her so maybe he knows what she will do. I would hope that Gazella presses that one while Willie walks on by at the top of the stretch and pulls away by oh...3 at the 1/16th pole.

Agree that there are a few unknowns. And for SWLY's past races, I've bet more conservatively, style-wise, though I'll be betting about the same here as in the past in terms of total amount. Also, I'm certainly not one to play hunches, but looking at these pps, I can just see this race unfolding with a win. It's not blind optimism, it's recognizing that Chuck has put our girl in the best position so far, imo, for that win.