7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So basically any horse that breaks from the 9-hole either has to be the speed of the speed or a dead closer to be a contender? Do I really have to provide "supporting handicapping logic" why that's wrong? She can stalk in the second flight and then move three-four wide on the turn and still win, just like any good, tactically sound horse can. And I love how you're convinced that she's going to be such low odds when she's 4-1 on the ML and Pletcher's horse is certain to take a lot of money.

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only after looking at the pp's. In general a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.