7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

thats a silly post, but given your statement I probably have made the exact argument in the past when

1. there is alot of speed signed up on a flat turn mile
2. an outside horse has several speed horses inside of them
3. is not faster then the other speed to clear and run them off their feet

You really furthered the handicapping discussion by blatantly making the 9-hole statement without offering any supporting handicapping logic why I am wrong.

She does have the second best figure in the race so its not impossible for her to win if some other riders take back and she breaks right on top thus elimating some of the speed, I just think at low odds its a very risky proposition.

So basically any horse that breaks from the 9-hole either has to be the speed of the speed or a dead closer to be a contender? Do I really have to provide "supporting handicapping logic" why that's wrong? She can stalk in the second flight and then move three-four wide on the turn and still win, just like any good, tactically sound horse can. And I love how you're convinced that she's going to be such low odds when she's 4-1 on the ML and Pletcher's horse is certain to take a lot of money.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So basically any horse that breaks from the 9-hole either has to be the speed of the speed or a dead closer to be a contender? Do I really have to provide "supporting handicapping logic" why that's wrong? She can stalk in the second flight and then move three-four wide on the turn and still win, just like any good, tactically sound horse can. And I love how you're convinced that she's going to be such low odds when she's 4-1 on the ML and Pletcher's horse is certain to take a lot of money.

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only after looking at the pp's. In general a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only. If a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.

I think you're nuts for putting the fair value at 6/1.

Who said anything about getting hooked 3-4 wide on a hot pace? I said she can travel with the second flight, then make a 3-4 wide move on the turn and win. Good horses do it all the time. And this isn't a turf race where you can hug the rail on the turn and then swing out for the stretch drive. She's going to have to make her move somewhere on the turn, so I don't know where you want her to "take back and save some ground."

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I think you're nuts for putting the fair value at 6/1.

Who said anything about getting hooked 3-4 wide on a hot pace? I said she can travel with the second flight, then make a 3-4 wide move on the turn and win. Good horses do it all the time. And this isn't a turf race where you can hug the rail on the turn and then swing out for the stretch drive. She's going to have to make her move somewhere on the turn, so I don't know where you want her to "take back and save some ground."

maybe I am missing it on her pp, where is that race, she looks like a pace horse?

I also dont have the chart, how have the horses who were on the pace with her last time faired next out? That would give us an idea how legit that last figure was?

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I would say fair odds are around 6/1, not sure what she will be.

Look, she is not winning hooked 3 or 4 wide on a fast pace, thats the fast track to an up the track finish. Can she take back and save some ground as which may be needed in this field, I dont think so, but if she wins I think she will need to do so.

Two posts and you have taken this one event and tried to use a large quantity to make your point.

Each race has a dynamic, I am talking about this race only after looking at the pp's. In general a horse with a E/P or P running style was stuck outside I would say it would be tough but not impossible, the horse in question has never shown a style like that.

If I can get 6-1, there will certainly be a trip to the ATM in my future.

We will all find out on Wed...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

If I can get 6-1, there will certainly be a trip to the ATM in my future.

We will all find out on Wed...

I'm mostly going to be playing a few small bets throughout the day, and am just going to enjoy getting to be there to share the day with the owners -- but oh my, if the price is right, with the way those she's been running against have been coming back, I'll see you in line

[AeWingnut]

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

[jwkniska]

weather will cooperate. should be partly cloudy and alot cooler and less humid. Storms now that will end tomorrow, then clearing out and cooling off.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

I also see Sumwon settling in the second flight (if Classic Tiara stays in, Sumwon might not have a choice), and making her move when Gazzella moves. If there's anyone she's willing to settle in that way for, she's likely willing to do it for Willie. If it's her and Gazzella halfway down the stretch, Sumwon outfinishes Gazzella if Sumwon's on her game. And the fact that Chuck thinks that she got something out of her last work reassures me on that front, despite the lay-off.

As far as post-time odds, I agree with Wingnut. I think bettors eyeballing the pps will be looking for a little value as an alternate to the lukewarm ml favorite -- Sumwon's pps certainly stand out for that purpose -- and they then pound her down to 5-2.

Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.

[Scav]

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

First, I would like to say thank you to all involved for arguing constructively, well done by all. 2ndly, Arljim is NUTS to think you are getting 4/1 on this horse, 5/2 off odds my friend, probably close to being favored. People will be playing Makers and Pletchers horse but I think Sumwon is 2nd favored, especially when people see who she has been running against. I GUARANTEE Liane Davis makes a point of it. She is sharp like that. Maybe I will convince her not to say a word about Sumwon. 3rdly. She will not be on the lead, I, with 100% certainity will say that she will be sitting 3rd or 4th right off the pace and get first run. She did the same exact thing with an inside post last time, and now she is going to great position and the opportunity for first run.

Now, this will all change if they get nuts up front and everyone wants the lead, where she is hung 5w. The best situation is that there is the common three horse speed duel up front where she is sitting two lengths back and gets first run, which is possible. Ideally, and this might be a long shot, but I have seen Earlie gun horses before that have no business on the lead, because the favorite is sitting outside of him, wants to hang them wide, it would be GREAT if he guns his horse in this race and hang Gazella 3w the whole time.

first you thank everyone for arguing constructively, then in the next breath you call me nuts?

read my post, I said she'll be 3 or 4 to 1. You say she'll be 5/2. So 2.5 to one is sane, but 3/1 is nutty?

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.

There are a few unknowns in this race. I hesitate to put my retirement on her. Npw if she were to go off at her M/L I would put my paycheck on her. The risk vs reward would be enough then.

Willie should know a thing or two about Queen of the Ridge...He used to ride her so maybe he knows what she will do. I would hope that Gazella presses that one while Willie walks on by at the top of the stretch and pulls away by oh...3 at the 1/16th pole.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

There are a few unknowns in this race. I hesitate to put my retirement on her. Npw if she were to go off at her M/L I would put my paycheck on her. The risk vs reward would be enough then.

Willie should know a thing or two about Queen of the Ridge...He used to ride her so maybe he knows what she will do. I would hope that Gazella presses that one while Willie walks on by at the top of the stretch and pulls away by oh...3 at the 1/16th pole.

Agree that there are a few unknowns. And for SWLY's past races, I've bet more conservatively, style-wise, though I'll be betting about the same here as in the past in terms of total amount. Also, I'm certainly not one to play hunches, but looking at these pps, I can just see this race unfolding with a win. It's not blind optimism, it's recognizing that Chuck has put our girl in the best position so far, imo, for that win.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.

I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.

She is not the speed in this race at all, what are you guys missing from her last race. Chuck has TAUGHT THIS HORSE TO RATE. She is a midflight horse now.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Scav

She is not the speed in this race at all, what are you guys missing from her last race. Chuck has TAUGHT THIS HORSE TO RATE. She is a midflight horse now.

ok, I know she won't have the lead but she is still faster than everyone else in the race

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

She is not the speed in this race at all, what are you guys missing from her last race. Chuck has TAUGHT THIS HORSE TO RATE. She is a midflight horse now.

LOL, you were the one swearing up and down last time that she would go to the front, when I told you the 6 would get the lead.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

LOL, you were the one swearing up and down last time that she would go to the front, when I told you the 6 would get the lead.

enough of you and your ridiculous memory. Please don't tell me you are keeping a notebook of every poster's opinions and trends

[cmorioles]

The 6f fraction was on the quick side for that final time at first glance. I'll do the figures in the next day or so and post here if anyone is interested.

[pointman]

I, for one, am very interested. Also interested in learning a more about your system.

[otisotisotis]

sucks that she couldn't pull out the win (it's coming i'm sure!), but it sure made some nice $ for me on the ex, tri, super.
still, would have rather cashed the win ticket on her.