7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[Cannon Shell]

Funny how things change...3 months ago everybody thought we were hopelessly overmatched and now everyone says we are a possibly overbet favorite. I'd rather be the latter.

[Cannon Shell]

By the way, going a mile out of a chute makes the outside post a lesser factor being that there is 1/2 mile to get position

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

By the way, going a mile out of a chute makes the outside post a lesser factor being that there is 1/2 mile to get position

agree with that but only if you are the clear front running speed or a multi dimensional horse who can press the pace from a few lengths back, not sure this horse can, at least she never has before.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

agree with that but only if you are the clear front running speed or a multi dimensional horse who can press the pace from a few lengths back, not sure this horse can, at least she never has before.

did you miss the last race?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

did you miss the last race?

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

she sat 2 lengths behind the leader and passed her at the quarter pole. Relaxed nicely off the pace

[Riot]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

Point, go to racereplays and watch her last two races, they are very interesting. In the last, she proves she's a race horse (very gutsy, you really should see this), in the one previous you can see Willie rate her, and she responds very kindly, down the back stretch.

I love my TG's, but watching the races tells you what you really need to know, sometimes.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Scherer entry - both turf to dirt (poly) angle, either capable, using underneath in tri's & super's.
Powder River - along time between drinks for this one, steps back up in class, doesn't look a factor here...not using.
Miss Peachtree - even race last time out and may have needed it, no early foot...but could land a piece, using in all exotics.
Lady Eloquence - stretches out for the first time, two efforts here were good, could be the longshot to using underneath in tri's & super's.
Pure Classy - this one scares me the most because of connections, could see her running late if the pace is quick, can see her 2nd or 3rd choice...include in all.
Green Door - showed speed in maiden breaker going a route, don't think she'll improve much more off that effort...super's only.
Bid on Dancer - the "rank outsider", "not in this lifetime".
Gazzella - the likely favorite, the horse to beat...but with price - would try to beat her even if Sumwon wasn't in the race.
Sumwonlovesyou - speaks for herself...both on and off the track!

The plays -
Sumwonlovesyou #9 - "heavy" on the win end.
Gazzella #8 / Pure Classy #5 / Miss Peachtree #3 - all in the "2" hole
Scherer entry #1 (either half) / Lady Eloquence #4 - rounding out top #3
Green Door #6 - in super's only

9/8/5 - 9/8/5/3- 9/8/5/3/1/4/ - 9/8/5/3/1/4/6

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Funny how things change...3 months ago everybody thought we were hopelessly overmatched and now everyone says we are a possibly overbet favorite. I'd rather be the latter.

well, 3 months ago you were

and you know you like to bet too

[ArlJim78]

First of all, she is not going to be chalk imo. The Douglas/Pletcher horse I'm sure will be a solid favorite. my guess is Sumwon is 3 or 4 to 1 by post time.

Second, I can easily see her getting a nice trip from that post settling in third or fourth, perhaps 2-3 lengths off the lead. With the long run up the backside there will be plenty of time to get into a decent position for the turn, meaning not 3-4 wide. I definitely don't subscribe to the gun it or take back idea. With her natural speed in 2-3 furlongs she will have easily cleared all but a few horses, without gunning.

she can start to move on the leaders on the turn and I think with the late power she showed last race she has a decent shot at taking it. I also like where she is in the form cycle, (three improving starts, followed by a short break and a nice work time before last), meaning perhaps she moves forward again.

Objectively speaking, I do always prefer to see recent poly form before wagering on a horse. Some of the local horses have a few races on the surface and that can be an advantage.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

First of all, she is not going to be chalk imo. The Douglas/Pletcher horse I'm sure will be a solid favorite. my guess is Sumwon is 3 or 4 to 1 by post time.

Second, I can easily see her getting a nice trip from that post settling in third or fourth, perhaps 2-3 lengths off the lead. With the long run up the backside there will be plenty of time to get into a decent position for the turn, meaning not 3-4 wide. I definitely don't subscribe to the gun it or take back idea. With her natural speed in 2-3 furlongs she will have easily cleared all but a few horses, without gunning.

she can start to move on the leaders on the turn and I think with the late power she showed last race she has a decent shot at taking it. I also like where she is in the form cycle, (three improving starts, followed by a short break and a nice work time before last), meaning perhaps she moves forward again.

Objectively speaking, I do always prefer to see recent poly form before wagering on a horse. Some of the local horses have a few races on the surface and that can be an advantage.

that is a fair post, I disagree but I its your opinion of the race which sounds fair enough.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

that is a fair post, I disagree but I its your opinion of the race which sounds fair enough.

You seem to be saying in your other posts that she has to take back or gun to the front which I agree would be suicidal. I don't know why you would say that really. Its four furlongs to the turn and I think there are perhaps two horses in here with more early speed. Translation: even running in her usual style she will be coming from off the leading group without any taking back effort. It will just happen naturally.

I agree with your logic when its a 5.5 or six furlong race. In that scenario from the outside you either need to get the lead or drop in somewhere rather quickly.

The only difference that I see is in this case like I said you have a very long run and it lessens the severity of the post imo.
anyway we'll see in a few days who was closer to the truth!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

You seem to be saying in your other posts that she has to take back or gun to the front which I agree would be suicidal. I don't know why you would say that really. Its four furlongs to the turn and I think there are perhaps two horses in here with more early speed. Translation: even running in her usual style she will be coming from off the leading group without any taking back effort. It will just happen naturally.

I agree with your logic when its a 5.5 or six furlong race. In that scenario from the outside you either need to get the lead or drop in somewhere rather quickly.

The only difference that I see is in this case like I said you have a very long run and it lessens the severity of the post imo.
anyway we'll see in a few days who was closer to the truth!

I am just a huge believer in running styles, that the most talented horses have two dimensional styles and that the other depend on pace senarios to win, such as a front runner getting a clear lead or a closer getting a fall apart senarion with no other talented horses like him in the race.....I think the horse in question here has clearly demonstrated that she wants to be part of the pace, in fact I dont see a race where she has passed a horse in the stretch?

[10 pnt move up]

Wasnt she also sick or something to complicate matters?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am just a huge believer in running styles, that the most talented horses have two dimensional styles and that the other depend on pace senarios to win, such as a front runner getting a clear lead or a closer getting a fall apart senarion with no other talented horses like him in the race.....I think the horse in question here has clearly demonstrated that she wants to be part of the pace, in fact I dont see a race where she has passed a horse in the stretch?

Then you obviously didn't see her last race, because Humble Janet passed her and she then passed Humble Janet back in the stretch after she changed her lead and almost got to Le Chateau. Humble Janet went on to finish 2nd in a GIII and Le Chateau 4th in the same race. And two back, after Girls Pearls passed her and looked to be flying home and opening up, Sumwon made up ground in the stretch and closed the gap coming back at that winner. Girls Pearls went on to win a stakes race. Neither is reflected in the PP's.

I am surprised that the Pletcher is favored over her as Sumwon appears to me to be the choice here, although not a surprise that people will jump on a Pletcher. I do have to say she may need a race in her and the surface is a a bit of a question mark for her, but I would love to see her go off third or fourth choice. Just think the bettors are smarter than that.