7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[Scav]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Scav

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

Despite the Cubs brainwashing, Scav is right. You can't compare this poly to others because it really hasn't been biased at all, other than the speed when wet. And it should be dry and sunny Wed for you guys. Only trouble spot, as discussed previously, is getting off the rail, which won't be an issue. You can win on the rail, it's just hard to move off of it

[cmorioles]

I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I guess that all depends on your definition of fair. It certainly doesn't play like dirt.

Agree, but dirt played to speed/rail holding, these races are finally 'fair' meaning good, well trained horses are winning.

I am also curious to see how she runs without her feet getting a taste of it, pre-race. At Hollywood, you can't work at SA and run at Hollywood, distinct disadvantage. Baffert is bringing all his horses over for one work pre-race now

[Benny Leger]

Originally Posted by Scav

Here is one thing. Arlington has been mostly fair quite honestly. I have watched EVERY race that has been run over this new surface. At the start of the meet, closers were winning, but it has really evened out. When this Arlington surface gets some moisture in it, speed/rail has been winning, like the old surface. IMO, the only thing that has really changed is that we are having move competitive fields, with better horses in them, thus the racing has gotten better

sounds a lot like TP poly track. Speed does well when you add water. The hotter it gets, the slower it gets.