Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-11-2007, 11:43 AM
Coach Pants
 
Posts: n/a
Default

You can't beat the past. This sport is doomed in that regard. It's like baseball.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 06-11-2007, 11:58 AM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,614
Default

I think Rags has the potential to be a really top one. But, in my opinion, this is one of the weakest 3yo filly groups I've seen and the colts are not that much better. Street Sense and Curlin have seperated themselves from the pack but what's making them stand out as extra special is because the crop is extremely mediocre. It's always been my opinion that in order for me to say a horse is truly great, he/she's got to do something really special. I don't mean just win the top races because every year, someone is going to win those races. For me, u've either got to beat some really good horses or u've got to run some amazing times/figures. To me, Street Sense has beaten one good horse (Curlin) and Curlin has beaten one good horse (Street Sense) and Rags has beaten one good horse (Curlin). Neither one ran an extremely fast time, ie a 115+ figure.

Getting back to Rags, I don't think she's in the class with some of the best of the past 20 years like Go for Wand, Bayakoa, Personal Ensign, Inside Information, Lady's Secret, Paseana, Azeri, Winning Colors, or Serena's Song.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 06-11-2007, 12:07 PM
Antitrust32 Antitrust32 is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Ft Lauderdale
Posts: 9,413
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
I think Rags has the potential to be a really top one. But, in my opinion, this is one of the weakest 3yo filly groups I've seen and the colts are not that much better. Street Sense and Curlin have seperated themselves from the pack but what's making them stand out as extra special is because the crop is extremely mediocre. It's always been my opinion that in order for me to say a horse is truly great, he/she's got to do something really special. I don't mean just win the top races because every year, someone is going to win those races. For me, u've either got to beat some really good horses or u've got to run some amazing times/figures. To me, Street Sense has beaten one good horse (Curlin) and Curlin has beaten one good horse (Street Sense) and Rags has beaten one good horse (Curlin). Neither one ran an extremely fast time, ie a 115+ figure.

Getting back to Rags, I don't think she's in the class with some of the best of the past 20 years like Go for Wand, Bayakoa, Personal Ensign, Inside Information, Lady's Secret, Paseana, Azeri, Winning Colors, or Serena's Song.
I guess you forgot about Tampa and the Preakness, but that's ok, I'll let it slide.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 06-11-2007, 12:17 PM
King Glorious's Avatar
King Glorious King Glorious is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Beaumont, CA
Posts: 4,614
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Antitrust32
I guess you forgot about Tampa and the Preakness, but that's ok, I'll let it slide.
No I didn't. Street Sense got a 102 in Tampa and Curlin got a 111 in the Preakness. That's why I used the 115+ as my barometer. Flat times are one thing but a speed figure helps determine how legit that final time was and how fast the track was. Those are decent numbers for 3yo's but nothing Earth shattering. The top 3yo's of the past few seasons like Bernardini, Discreet Cat, Smarty Jones, Point Given, Funny Cide, Afleet Alex, War Emblem.....they were routinely faster than these two.
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 06-11-2007, 01:18 PM
pba1817 pba1817 is offline
Hawthorne
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 541
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by King Glorious
No I didn't. Street Sense got a 102 in Tampa and Curlin got a 111 in the Preakness. That's why I used the 115+ as my barometer. Flat times are one thing but a speed figure helps determine how legit that final time was and how fast the track was. Those are decent numbers for 3yo's but nothing Earth shattering. The top 3yo's of the past few seasons like Bernardini, Discreet Cat, Smarty Jones, Point Given, Funny Cide, Afleet Alex, War Emblem.....they were routinely faster than these two.

This current group might be slower, but I remember everyone saying that heading into last years Derby too, and the hearing the same thing the year before that as well.

It all has to do with the lack of seasoning for these young horses. Horses develop over time and with experience, just like any athlete. Look at most of the great distance horses in history, they continued to develop at the end of their 3yo season and beyond. Today, horses are retired at 3.

Those faster times you want to see would come if these horses were running more frequently early in their career. Will you have more physical issues, yes, and that is where the problem lies. Owners are focusing solely on a few select races in a horses career that if they do win them, its like winning the lottery. It has made the owners scared to death to hurt a prospective stallion before he gets to the triple crown races. The opportunity for profit is so huge that it just not worth the risk to them to run their horses as frequently as they did in years past.

I think the only solution is to significantly increase purses in graded stakes races. Making it very difficult for owners to walk away from a huge purse, or a share of it. I think graded purses are too low when compared to top level other sports, and the industry has failed to show a fair increase over the years. The perfect example is the Arlington Million, which is still the Arlington Million 26 years later, what sense does that make? in todays market, it should be the Arlington $10 Million...

The stakes increase could funded by a number of areas, but mostly it should by the people who are going to reap the benefits, the owners and breeders. Putting a take out %, just like we have to pay at the mutual windows, on the live foal fees as well as the auction rings. For as much money is exchanged hands, the % would not have to be much. There are record numbers being spent each year, yet we are seeing less and less Graded quality horses... its only going to get worse until the industry realizes they are sacrificing quality racing for their own greed.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 06-11-2007, 12:19 PM
Downthestretch55 Downthestretch55 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Stamford, NY
Posts: 4,618
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardus
She doesn't belong "in history" until her career is history.
Correct. Thanks for saying the truth.
She could be....but there's a long way ahead.
For sure she made fans, and I think T-bred racing needed this.
Just don't "fall in love". Sometimes they break your heart.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 06-11-2007, 12:53 PM
somerfrost's Avatar
somerfrost somerfrost is offline
Atlantic City Race Course
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Chambersburg, Pa
Posts: 4,635
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Downthestretch55
Correct. Thanks for saying the truth.
She could be....but there's a long way ahead.
For sure she made fans, and I think T-bred racing needed this.
Just don't "fall in love". Sometimes they break your heart.

I agree, I love racing history and as a hobby, maintain a list of the horses I feel are the 100 "best ever"...it's highly subjective, one person's opinion as I rank horses as far back as Flying Childers and Eclipse and that leaves me open to the question of how on earth I can compare horses which ran a series of two mile heats with today's animals...my answer is a combination of research and a fair degree of "gut instinct"...as I said, highly subjective (but lots of fun). My point being, I NEVER consider a horse until they retire...simply isn't fair. Rags seems to have almost unlimited potential and the Belmont win secures her a place in history (I mean really...first filly to ever win a 12f Belmont) but Roman only assigned a PF of -47 to her, the slowest number he's ever given the Belmont winner (next would be Sarava at -55) and so questions about quality of competition will be raised. Still, she stumbled at the gate, raced wide and was facing colts for the first time so...who knows. If she retired today, I'd have a tough time ranking her above the likes of Inside Information and Winning Colors, certainly not with the likes of Personal Ensign or Lady's Secret.
__________________
"Always be yourself...unless you suck!"
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 06-11-2007, 01:43 PM
Downthestretch55 Downthestretch55 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Stamford, NY
Posts: 4,618
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by somerfrost
I agree, I love racing history and as a hobby, maintain a list of the horses I feel are the 100 "best ever"...it's highly subjective, one person's opinion as I rank horses as far back as Flying Childers and Eclipse and that leaves me open to the question of how on earth I can compare horses which ran a series of two mile heats with today's animals...my answer is a combination of research and a fair degree of "gut instinct"...as I said, highly subjective (but lots of fun). My point being, I NEVER consider a horse until they retire...simply isn't fair. Rags seems to have almost unlimited potential and the Belmont win secures her a place in history (I mean really...first filly to ever win a 12f Belmont) but Roman only assigned a PF of -47 to her, the slowest number he's ever given the Belmont winner (next would be Sarava at -55) and so questions about quality of competition will be raised. Still, she stumbled at the gate, raced wide and was facing colts for the first time so...who knows. If she retired today, I'd have a tough time ranking her above the likes of Inside Information and Winning Colors, certainly not with the likes of Personal Ensign or Lady's Secret.
Somerfrost,
Your enthusiasm is quite evident.
Rags could be just what we need after the past couple of years. She has accomplished something very grand, but she's not there yet.
Now, since you're into the history of it, I'll just mention a couple that you might remember.
1) #2 in the 5th on June 5, 2004 (The White Carnation). Her name- Board Elligible.
Sire: Goldminer's Gold, dam Double Boarded by Cormorant.
Trained by James W. Ferraro
Jockey- Javier Castellano
I mention her because seeing her win caused me to decide to buy her half brother, Makeitright.
2) Bourbon Slush (1980). For sure Pedigree Anne will look her up. You'll see names like Crozier, Swaps, Hasty Road, and My Babu. She's the dam of one of my mares, Bourbon Streettune, the mom of Shot o' Bourbon (2yo) and Ciel
Bonne (yearling).

Somer, as I said before, the good that comes from a nice filly winning a big one invigorates our sport, drives our passions, and realizes our dreams.
Race on!!!!! Stumbles and all.

DTS
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 06-11-2007, 01:20 PM
miraja2's Avatar
miraja2 miraja2 is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,157
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardus
She doesn't belong "in history" until her career is history.
I don't like the fact that I went on some big lengthy rant and then you come along and nicely sum up everything I was trying to say in one cleverly constructed sentence.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:13 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cardus
She doesn't belong "in history" until her career is history.
Good point
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:20 PM
SentToStud's Avatar
SentToStud SentToStud is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,065
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Good point
I say not a good point. I think a 3x G1 winning filly who wins the Belmont while getting the toughest trip in the field is enough to be judged favorably through history.

Can you name one filly who accomplished more than she has through this point in their respective 3 yo years?
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:21 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,943
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
I say not a good point. I think a 3x G1 winning filly who wins the Belmont while getting the toughest trip in the field is enough to be judged favorably through history.

Can you name one filly who accomplished more than she has through this point in their respective 3 yo years?
genuine risk
personal ensign


oh, wait, that's two. plenty more tho.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all.
Abraham Lincoln
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:25 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
genuine risk
personal ensign


oh, wait, that's two. plenty more tho.
Maybe not Personal Ensign
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:26 PM
SentToStud's Avatar
SentToStud SentToStud is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,065
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
genuine risk
personal ensign


oh, wait, that's two. plenty more tho.
Accomplished as much? yes. More? no.

That's my point.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:38 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
genuine risk
personal ensign


oh, wait, that's two. plenty more tho.

Personal Ensign probably hadn't started yet as a 3YO at this time. And, she didn't accomplish nearly as much until she was 4.

And I say that as a huge fan.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:25 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
I say not a good point. I think a 3x G1 winning filly who wins the Belmont while getting the toughest trip in the field is enough to be judged favorably through history.

Can you name one filly who accomplished more than she has through this point in their respective 3 yo years?
Winning Colors?
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:28 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,943
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Winning Colors?
definitely!
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all.
Abraham Lincoln
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:33 PM
SentToStud's Avatar
SentToStud SentToStud is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,065
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Winning Colors?
Fair enough. I'd say arguably yes. Same with Genuine Risk. But just arguably. Neither beat colts off the trip R2R had.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:28 PM
Cannon Shell's Avatar
Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
Sha Tin
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 20,855
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SentToStud
I say not a good point. I think a 3x G1 winning filly who wins the Belmont while getting the toughest trip in the field is enough to be judged favorably through history.

Can you name one filly who accomplished more than she has through this point in their respective 3 yo years?
Obviously she has a nice little resume but she has to do a lot more for her to be mentioned with many of the all-time greats who we can judge based upon their entire careers.

I know its hard to believe but a 3 time Grade 1 winning filly is not that rare.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 06-11-2007, 05:36 PM
SentToStud's Avatar
SentToStud SentToStud is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,065
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Obviously she has a nice little resume but she has to do a lot more for her to be mentioned with many of the all-time greats who we can judge based upon their entire careers.

I know its hard to believe but a 3 time Grade 1 winning filly is not that rare.
Thanks for the lesson. I just learned yesterday they have been running grade 1 races for a while.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:42 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.