My Belmont Analysis

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.

I was worried you were going to leave him off completely.

I think what may be being misunderstood is that just because a horse is the " most likely winner " ( every race has one ) doesn't mean you ( or one ) is betting that horse. The likeliest winner might be 30% to win ( not to say that is easily definable ) but is therefore worth betting against at 8:5 or less. However, it is important as a handicapper, and especially as one who handicaps publicly, to both understand and define the most likely winner. Many races effectively go through one horse. However, how the player deals with that horse will decide how well he ( or she ) does betting said race.

When publicly discussing a race it is irresponsible to not discuss how you are dealing with the " most likely winner. "

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

When publicly discussing a race it is irresponsible to not discuss how you are dealing with the " most likely winner. "

I feel like it's more confusing than irresponsible. Maybe that actaully makes it irresponsible. I have found that I need to go a step or two beyond a normal explanation when not using a big favorite. Some people don't seem to understand the idea of seeking value elsewhere, especially in big races. Of course, most serious racing fans understand completely.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I feel like it's more confusing than irresponsible. Maybe that actaully makes it irresponsible. I have found that I need to go a step or two beyond a normal explanation when not using a big favorite. Some people don't seem to understand the idea of seeking value elsewhere, especially in big races. Of course, most serious racing fans understand completely.

You're right about the last part....serious racing fans understand seeking value elsewhere implicitely.

I was speaking more in general about not discussing the main contender as being irresponsible. When I do the DRF/Siro's shows in Saratoga I think the most important thing to do is lay out the race logically and try to explain how I intend to attack it ( if at all ). I am eternally frustrated when I see other handicapping shows and people do not do this. It's really all about leading people in the right direction. Nobody will ever find their way if they are left out in the wilderness. Wrong or right, you have to have the right starting point to have a real chance to get where you want to go ( winning ).

[slotdirt]

The Alysheba was graded this year?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

The Alysheba was graded this year?

Yes, for the first time.

[justindew]

I can't believe no one pointed out that Tiago is a HALF-brother to Giacomo. Not FULL.

My bad.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by justindew

I can't believe no one pointed out that Tiago is a HALF-brother to Giacomo. Not FULL.

My bad.

You punk. I am on Derby Trail for the first time in a week, and I read that. I have just scrolled through every post in this thread to be sure I hadn't come late to the party and here's the last post....

EGAD!