My Belmont Analysis

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'd hate to have to write more than two or three sentences about this race.

I'm using Curlin and R2R in multi-win exotics (twice as much to Curlin) and I will toss Hard Spun in on a ticket with mostly my singles in the surrounding races...just so he doesn't beat me out of anything if my top picks win all the surrounding races.

I will only bet the race if people get carried away, and really overbet each of the four least likely winners.

I filmed a half hour show about it tonight.....and have to film another one tomorrow.

Actually, to be honest, it's a fairly interesting race to talk about. Moreso, to me at least, than the Preakness. Unfortunately it all revolves around a 4:5 shot who will probably win.

[Travis Stone]

Curlin should win the race, and that's why he'll be such a short price. Part of me is concerned that he really only ran well the last 3/8's in the Preakness. Certainly he learned a lot, but now with 12 furlongs, that's a long time to goof around before getting serious, and by time he does, it might be over.

If Street Sense does not back-up in the Preakness and wins the race, but is still not in the Belmont, does Curlin go off at the same price Saturday? I think that's a legitimate question and angle if you want to try and reason to beat him.

[Antitrust32]

I kind of think that the fact Curlin has had three workouts since the preakness means he's rearing to go. Haskin reported he "bounced" off the van and bounced all the way to the barn yesterday. Just makes me key him on top of tri's even more. The only other horse I'll put on top in exotics is Rags.

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I kind of think that the fact Curlin has had three workouts since the preakness means he's rearing to go. Haskin reported he "bounced" off the van and bounced all the way to the barn yesterday. Just makes me key him on top of tri's even more. The only other horse I'll put on top in exotics is Rags.

Was he listening to Jay-Z on the way to Elmont?

[tector]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I kind of think that the fact Curlin has had three workouts since the preakness means he's rearing to go. Haskin reported he "bounced" off the van and bounced all the way to the barn yesterday. Just makes me key him on top of tri's even more. The only other horse I'll put on top in exotics is Rags.

I'm sure Stevie A. gave him a tonic water with a slice of lime that just refreshed him good as new.

This is not a great betting race (relative to others on the card) unless you can make a case for some price horse joining into the tri. Even then a Curlin/HS/whomever tri is still not going to pay much.

I am going to play against R2R--I see her being seriously underlayed here. Pletcher has had the reverse Midas touch in the TC recently, and I'm going to roll with that until it changes.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tector

I am going to play against R2R--I see her being seriously underlayed here. Pletcher has had the reverse Midas touch in the TC recently, and I'm going to roll with that until it changes.

I'd honestly be pretty surprised if she misses the tri.

In her Ky Oaks win...she ran an identical figure to that earned by Wanderin Boy (in winning a modest Graded Stake for older males) earlier on in the card...and did so with the tougher trip of the two...and was most impressive through the late stages.

Wanderin Boy is a pretty darn nice horse--and was 2nd to horses like Invasor and Bernardini in big Grade 1's last year...although, the subsequent performances by Half Ours and Perfect Drift haven't exactly flattered that race.

I'm always concerned about big stretch-outs with Pletcher runners...but, being an A. P. Indy out of stamina laden female family....she really projects for some improvement.

I've entertained the idea of backwheeling her in an exacta---with Curlin and HS on top (Curlin for at twice as much) --- thinking that R2R will mop up the loser of that match-up through the stretch, but not be good enough to win. However, there's not much advantage there either.

Like you say though---not a great betting race.