My Belmont Analysis

[Scav]

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Scav

To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

If he isn't....

Who is?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

[Scav]

Maybe I worded it wrong, but I really don't think he wins, but I have zero idea who will win, but I just don't think he does it....I fully expect a dull effort from him, maybe a one paced 3rd.

I might consider a win wager on Tiago, even though I can't stand Smith, how much trouble can he get in on a closer in a 7 horse race.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

So you think that a horse doesn't react off huge efforts and non-ample time to recoup?

Right.....I don't.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right.....I don't.

So if you were to liken this to humans and sports, a monster effort where an athlete is just drained (like LeBron in Game 5, I know you don't watch sports but others will know what I am talking about) and then the next game he comes out flat, no creedance to that?

I really think people over use the word bounce and regress, this I agree with, but I am a firm believer that not given ample time, a horse off this effort will not reproduce that peak effort, which i think is needed to win races like this one.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not to echo DrugS......but this is absolutely wrong. He is 100% the most likely winner. In fact....he is the very definition of " most likely winner."

Then bet him.

Im not at 4/5.

Whoops.

Curlin is probably going to win. I can understand anyone who has reservations but he's a pretty likely winner. He's not worth even money or 4:5 perhaps, and Rags to Riches and maybe Tiago have real chances, but he's a very good horse.

The sooner you get away from this bounce/react sh it the better.


I need to read before I type.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Most over and misused term in handicapping. Where is the value when the ticket is a loser. I can see taking a chance with yout $8 tri wheel but do you really think it will win?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Most over and misused term in handicapping. Where is the value when the ticket is a loser. I can see taking a chance with yout $8 tri wheel but do you really think it will win?

You are bound to have losing tickets in this game, it is minimizing the big ones and ultizing opportunities like this one, where there is a short priced favorite who I think has very little chance to finish 2nd, let alone win.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have to say that while it is a short field, it is an awful interesting betting race. TG wise, horses like Tiago and Slew's Tizzy have improving lines, ones where they are predicted to run in the zero range. I don't see Rag getting to that number, nor do I see Curlin running anywhere near his number in this race. I really think you could get some value by playing a small ticket like this

Tiago, Slew's Tizzy
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun
Tiago, Slew's Tizzy, Spun, Rags, Wild, Curlin

Anything can happen. To me, Curlin is not the most likely winner, especially if you think he reacts off that last effort, which was monsterous.....

Come to the dark side Scavs...