Angle - Blinkers Off

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Question: How much does their recent running style factor in?
I personally don't use "blinkers-off" as an angle (although apparently I should) but for Jim and others that do use it, I assume that if a horse was rank - or simply wouldn't rate - in his recent starts with blinkers, you look at the blinkers-off angle as more meaningful. Is that true?
If a horse shows no early run with blinkers, do you still think that taking the blinkers off will sometimes help?

a horse with no early run in blkrs is not one I would look at, for sure, especially if its an older horse.

It's hard to generalize but what I have noticed like with maidens is that sometimes you will see when the trainers put on the blinkers that the speed was sharpened but it looks like with some horses the sharpened speed may come at the expense of having the horse run relaxed and they end up coming up short in the lane and not getting the win. What I have noticed is that in this case when the blinkers are removed the horse now has better fitness and speed, but seems to be relaxed and will more naturally come from just off the pace and finish up well.

Like with anything else there are no hard and fast rules, you just have to use your normal thought process to determine if you think it may or may not help a particular horse on a particular day.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

you just have to use your normal thought process.

Oh, never mind then. I am trying to find a way to avoid having to do that.

[ArlJim78]

Okay handicapping Hollywood tonight and in the first race is a textbook blinkers off maiden horse that i referred to earlier.

Themis Valentine, the 3, has raced in blinkers four times and shows lots of speed especially to the half mile. After the half he slows up enough so that he's been caught each time although he's come close a few times.

Now the blinkers come off, Baze keeps the mount. Now this horse would be bet and would be logical even if the blinkers weren't coming off, after all its O'Neil. But he'd be no sure thing because of what looks like a tendency to come back late.

This is the type of situation were I would expect this horse to run very relaxed, not quite as fast early, and have plenty enough to hold off the others late. we'll see in about an hour.

[pmacdaddy]

Kept my eye out for Blinker changes when I looked at HOL.

Also noted, Race #3 Storm Ultra - added blinkers in last and was well bet on turf. Now keeps blinks going Turf / Synth.
Appears Turf is not preferred surface. Potential significance?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Kept my eye out for Blinker changes when I looked at HOL.

Also noted, Race #3 Storm Ultra - added blinkers in last and was well bet on turf. Now keeps blinks going Turf / Synth.
Appears Turf is not preferred surface. Potential significance?

i agree with the angle, but it will have to wait for another day as Storm Ultra is scratched.

[phystech]

Let me throw a curve in here - cheaters. What if you see a horse that's been running full cup blinks but now shows up with cheaters? What's the angle there as it relates to blinks off?

I always looked at the use of cheaters as a tool used by a trainer that doesn't want to do the gate work to take the blinks off - and that's assuming horses still have to go to the gate in the morning with blinks off to be able to make the equipment change. By using cheaters, if the blinks off don't work, the trainer doesn't have to go back to the gate again to get the blinks back on.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by phystech

Let me throw a curve in here - cheaters. What if you see a horse that's been running full cup blinks but now shows up with cheaters? What's the angle there as it relates to blinks off?

I always looked at the use of cheaters as a tool used by a trainer that doesn't want to do the gate work to take the blinks off - and that's assuming horses still have to go to the gate in the morning with blinks off to be able to make the equipment change. By using cheaters, if the blinks off don't work, the trainer doesn't have to go back to the gate again to get the blinks back on.

Personally i've never gone to that level of detail, cheaters vs. full cup.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Okay handicapping Hollywood tonight and in the first race is a textbook blinkers off maiden horse that i referred to earlier.

Themis Valentine, the 3, has raced in blinkers four times and shows lots of speed especially to the half mile. After the half he slows up enough so that he's been caught each time although he's come close a few times.

Now the blinkers come off, Baze keeps the mount. Now this horse would be bet and would be logical even if the blinkers weren't coming off, after all its O'Neil. But he'd be no sure thing because of what looks like a tendency to come back late.

This is the type of situation were I would expect this horse to run very relaxed, not quite as fast early, and have plenty enough to hold off the others late. we'll see in about an hour.

haha, the horse wasn't relaxed at all, and out of the gate I didn't like his stride at all, short and choppy. didn't look good at all after taking all kinds of money.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Okay handicapping Hollywood tonight and in the first race is a textbook blinkers off maiden horse that i referred to earlier.

Themis Valentine, the 3, has raced in blinkers four times and shows lots of speed especially to the half mile. After the half he slows up enough so that he's been caught each time although he's come close a few times.

Now the blinkers come off, Baze keeps the mount. Now this horse would be bet and would be logical even if the blinkers weren't coming off, after all its O'Neil. But he'd be no sure thing because of what looks like a tendency to come back late.

This is the type of situation were I would expect this horse to run very relaxed, not quite as fast early, and have plenty enough to hold off the others late. we'll see in about an hour.

Next stop Golden Gate for Themis Valentine

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

Next stop Golden Gate for Themis Valentine

maybe, he looked very bad.

[pmacdaddy]

Stolen Star in 7th at BEL today looks like Blinks Off candidate to me (6-1ML). Loses shades for 2nd off layoff start. Career best was last spring same surface, dist, no blinks. I will be including in pick4.