Va Derby

Originally Posted by boldruler

No more dirt for him. He really couldn't ever beat the top 3yr olds or older horses on the surface anyway. He is a nice 100 beyer type of horse on dirt. On grass they swear he is the next superstar.

We'll see....but I still think they swap back at some point...they'd be close-minded not to try.....Plus, his stud value may really depend on it if he wants to stand in this country....seriously....nobody wants to breed to a Turf horse in North America...they just don't...

[blackthroatedwind]

I won't be surprised to see him in the Met Mile either. I think the evidence is FAR from conclusive that he's a better turf horse than dirt horse and as Joel has pointed out there is little interest in breeding to turf horses in the US and for reasonably good reason.

A lot of decisions about this horse's future seem to be being made based on one race. I'm not so sure the best race he ever ran wasn't his debut. And, running 6th in the Derby, on two weeks rest with little bottom, wasn't too shabby either.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I won't be surprised to see him in the Met Mile either. I think the evidence is FAR from conclusive that he's a better turf horse than dirt horse and as Joel has pointed out there is little interest in breeding to turf horses in the US and for reasonably good reason.

A lot of decisions about this horse's future seem to be being made based on one race. I'm not so sure the best race he ever ran wasn't his debut. And, running 6th in the Derby, on two weeks rest with little bottom, wasn't too shabby either.

I would love to see him back on the dirt, but Tagg isn't making his opinion up on just one race. These are his words "I just never thought he looked real comfortable on the dirt even though he was very impressive on it in several of his races," Tagg said of the colt. "One day we jogged him off on the turf and he just looked like he was reborn."

Tagg wasn't the only one who thought this, some guys who really know the business saw the same thing. I believe a few large offers were made on the horse, but I have no idea if that is really the case.

[SentToStud]

Really now. He's obviously very nice but it's pretty senseless to proclaim him a star until he meets and beats other nice horses in a race where they're all well meant. The Colonial Cup was not such a race. He ran great but after all he did have the trip of a lifetime from a favorable post and never really had to run for position or make room for his run. Let's see how he does in the Seretariat on a bit tighter course where he'll be meeting other colts who have been pointed for the race and where he'll not likely have as smooth a trip. If he wins big there, I'll be the first to proclaim him special.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Really now. He's obviously very nice but it's pretty senseless to proclaim him a star until he meets and beats other nice horses in a race where they're all well meant. The Colonial Cup was not such a race. He ran great but after all he did have the trip of a lifetime from a favorable post and never really had to run for position or make room for his run. Let's see how he does in the Seretariat on a bit tighter course where he'll be meeting other colts who have been pointed for the race and where he'll not likely have as smooth a trip. If he wins big there, I'll be the first to proclaim him special.

They are skipping a pretty easy million dollar spot to target the Secretariat, so they must think they have something there.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by boldruler

They are skipping a pretty easy million dollar spot to target the Secretariat, so they must think they have something there.

i'm sure they think so. Then again, maybe the VA race is a bit fast back. He ran great las t out. But, he really did trip out very well there. Looking forward to the next one.

[blackthroatedwind]

Well, Tagg knows much better than me.

Not that I am a big believer in Beyer figs on the grass ( or any figs on the grass for that matter ) but he did get a 102 in Virginia. That's pretty good and barely puts him behind these supposed monster older horses running.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, Tagg knows much better than me.

Not that I am a big believer in Beyer figs on the grass ( or any figs on the grass for that matter ) but he did get a 102 in Virginia. That's pretty good and barely puts him behind these supposed monster older horses running.

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by boldruler

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.

The basic problem with speed figures in turf races is that the final times are, irrelevent is a simplistic word, maybe simplisticly misleading. The pace is a major determinent of the final time and it is often only the final 5/16 to 1/4 mile where real running is done. It is a totally different animal than dirt racing where final time is of much greater importance.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Beyers on the turf are useless. Honestly I am not sure why, but I have been told this repeatedly by people. A few guys hate beyers all together. I like them because they are easy to figure out, but I am not a guy who bets real money except 2-3x a year.

The only thing I like about Beyers (on either surface) is betting against them...I love when the public picks up on a false favorite due to an exaggerated Beyer fig....happens all the time and creates great value for people who have a better system...I have found Rags to be the most sophisticated speed figs, but who can afford $40 a day?...Not me.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

We'll see....but I still think they swap back at some point...they'd be close-minded not to try.....Plus, his stud value may really depend on it if he wants to stand in this country....seriously....nobody wants to breed to a Turf horse in North America...they just don't...

I think Tagg just feels he is a much better horse on the turf. I know they wanted to go back to the dirt but it sounds like they gave up on that. Who knows though after a beating by some europeans on the turf he might change his mind. They have to be looking at the poor crop of 3yr old turf horses though and wondering how any of them could ever beat him.