Preakness Beyer

[SundayStar]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Beyer did some odd things with the day. He split out the Diabolical race. I chose to split the day there. I can see why he did it, though I don't agree.

Splitting the variant there gives Chelokee around an 89 figure, which does seem low. The pace was pretty quick in that race though, so I tend to think the 89 is a good figure. Beyer instead gives Chelokee his 95, while downgrading the Diabolical race by itself.

He does then split the variant for the 11th and 12th, while reverting back to the old variant, or splitting again, for the last race.

chelokee getting a lower than expected makes sense to me. the jockey decided to closely track stonehouse because letting him have a loose lead was the only way chelokee was gonna lose that race. the strategy worked out, giving him the win but i think it cost him(chelokee) some of his late kick. he came home pretty slow.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by SundayStar

chelokee getting a lower than expected makes sense to me. the jockey decided to closely track stonehouse because letting him have a loose lead was the only way chelokee was gonna lose that race. the strategy worked out, giving him the win but i think it cost him(chelokee) some of his late kick. he came home pretty slow.

that tells me he is not very good

[hockey2315]

The Preakness number makes sense to me because it's right around what Street Sense ran in the Derby. . . I can't really see either horse jumping up 7 or so points in 2 weeks. . . I do, however, think the Diabolical/Talent Search numbers were way too low. . . They both ran HUGE and I thought that number would be somewhere in the mid-110s

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't trust any number in any race on anyones figures for Saturday's Pimlico card.

The track seemed to be changing speeds every race.

Curlin didn't get his trip---no way he ran a 119....and no way C. P. West ran a 110 for finishing 4th.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't trust any number in any race on anyones figures for Saturday's Pimlico card.
The track seemed to be changing speeds every race.

Curlin didn't get his trip---no way he ran a 119....and no way C. P. West ran a 110 for finishing 4th.

Fair point, and if you make your own figures you know that sometimes there's days where the numbers are just no good and must be discounted/discarded.

CP West, without a doubt, ran a career best. Could he jump up 15-20 points? I'm not so sure, which is what makes me doubt the 118 I came up with yesterday. I have no doubt that either of the top two are capable of a huge number, it's the also-rans that throw the fly in the ointment.