Bounce theory, Steve?

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by golfer

I know this has been knocked around enough recently, but Steve just made a statement on ATRAB that I would like clarified. He said a horse coming off a big "effort" would be LESS likely to "bounce" coming back quickly, in this case 2 weeks. I would think that the opposite would be true, the more time since the effort, the less likely the bounce.
Steve, or any other sheet's using, kool-aid drinking, bounce theorists, feel free to respond

I heard his statement as well, but agree with him. I am totally not speaking for him, but I think his meaning was that you have a horse who put forth a big effort and naturally you tend to think "ok this horse is due to regress a bit". For the sake of the argument, lets say normal rest for that horse is five weeks...Steve was trying to say you are much more likely to see regression or a "bounce" (hate that term BTW) under "normal" regimens of a four or five week lay off than you are when the layoff is only 14 days.

The evidence is there, too...at least most recently in the Derby-Preakness window...Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, all came back to top their Derby performaces with their Preakness wins. The window of time between the two races is so short, that you are more likely to use the Derby as a training tool for the Preakness to stay sharp or even improve. Then, maybe you can more likely see the regression later on (say the Belmont, which is five weeks from the Derby).