Derby Future Odds, Presented by Dunbar

[Dunbar]

5/1 update

A sudden burst of activity at Pinnacle...

AGS up from 16.4-1 to 17-1 at Pinny
Bwana Bull and Sedgefield listed at 125-1 at Pinny
Xchanger listed at 80-1 at Pinny
Dominican up from 26.71-1 to 28.28-1 at Pinny
Great Hunter up from 21.25-1 to 22.25-1 at Pinny
NoBiz down from 9-1 to 8.25-1 at 5Dimes, still 9-1 at World
SamP down from 60-1 to 23.44-1 at Pinny; still 60-1 at Bodog
Scat Daddy down from 9-1 to 7.5-1 at 5Dimes; still 9-1 at World
Street Sense down from 6-1 to 5.35-1 at 5Dimes; still 6-1 at Bodog
Tiago down from 22-1 to 20-1 at 5Dimes

Here is the updated list:

AnyGivSat'day 17.01 Pinny (16 FD)
Bwana Bull 125 Pinny 60 World, FD
CircularQuay 10.15 Greek
Cobalt Blue 100 Pinny (60 FD)
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny (23 FD)
Curlin 4.65 Greek
Dominican 28.28 Pinny (23 FD)
Great Hunter 22.25 Pinny (20 FD, Bodog)
Hard Spun 20 FD
Liquidity 40 World, FD
Nobiz Shobiz 9 World
Sam P 60 Bodog
Scat Daddy 9 World
Sedgefield 125 Pinny (60 Greek)
Stormello 45.5 Greek
Storm in May 125 Pinny (80 Bodog)
Street Sense 6 Bodog
Teuflesberg 100 Pinny (80.5 Greek)
Tiago 20 FD
Zanjero 30 FD, Bodog

The implied takeout using these odds is 0.8%! Even if you add in Xchanger at 80-1 and use 21 horses, the total implied takeout is around 2%.

--Dunbar

FD = 5Dimes
World = World Sports Exchange
Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

5/2 update

TheGreek and World Sports Exch have their future lines down. I'll just post a "best" list today, without all the changes:

Here is the updated list:

AnyGivSat'day 18.81 Pinny
Bwana Bull 100 FD
CircularQuay 8.5 FD
Cowtown Cat 30 Pinny
Curlin 4.1 FD
Dominican 25 FD
Great Hunter 24.97 Pinny
Hard Spun 19.65 Pinny
Liquidity 33 FD
Nobiz Shobiz 8.79 Pinny
Sam P 60 Bodog
Scat Daddy 7.77 Pinny
Sedgefield 40 Pinny
Stormello 40 FD
Storm in May 80 Bodog
Street Sense 6 Bodog
Teuflesberg 85 FD
Tiago 16.47 Pinny
Zanjero 30 Bodog

If you assume Imawild can be gotten for 50-1 on DerbyDay, then the implied takeout using these odds is 9.6%.

--Dunbar

FD = 5Dimes
World = World Sports Exchange
Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

Edit: corrected the takeout from 8% to 9.6%

[Dunbar]

5/3 update

Curlin is now over 5-1 at Pinnacle. Curlin was 5-2 at Pinnacle a few days ago.

World and 5Dimes still don't have odds up. Even without them, the combined list of highest available has just a 3.5% takeout.

Here is the updated list of highest future odds:

Sedgefield 80 Greek
Curlin 5.03 Pinny
Zanjero 25 Bodog,Pinny
StormInMay 72.5 Greek
ImaWildGuy 75 Bodog
CowtownCat 30 Pinny
StreetSense 5.6 Pinny
HardSpun 15.4 Pinny
Liquidity 40 Pinny
Teuflesberg 80 Pinny
Bwana Bull 70 Bodog
Nobiz 9.5 Pinny
SamP 40 Pinny
ScatDaddy 9 Bodog
Tiago 22.8 Pinny
CircQuay 10.15 Greek
Stormello 42.5 Greek
AGS 19.04 Pinny
Dominican 25.5 Greek,Pinny
Great Hunter 27 Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is just 3.5%.

--Dunbar

Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

5/4 (and possibly final) update

DrugS's endorsement of AGS knocked the Pinnacle odds from 19-1 to 14-1 ;>) (still at 16-1 at TheGreek)
Someone also snapped up Sedgefield at 80-1 at TheGreek, knocking it down to 60-1 there. (still at 70-1 at bodog)
Curlin, Street Sense and Circ Quay were bet down from the odds offered yesterday. (others, too, but those jumped out at me.)

Here is the updated list of highest future odds:

Sedgefield 70 Bodog
Curlin 4.85 Greek
Zanjero 25 Bodog
StormInMay 72.5 Greek
ImaWildGuy 75 Bodog
CowtownCat 28.5 Greek
StreetSense 5.39 Pinny
HardSpun 15.25 Greek
Liquidity 46.98 Pinny
Teuflesberg 80 Pinny
Bwana Bull 70 Bodog
Nobiz 8.9 Pinny
SamP 40 Pinny
ScatDaddy 8.85 Greek
Tiago 18.15 Greek
CircQuay 9 Bodog
Stormello 40 Bodog
AGS 16.15 Greek
Dominican 25.5 Greek,Pinny
Great Hunter 27 Pinny

The implied takeout using these odds is 7.8%.

--Dunbar

Greek = TheGreek
Pinny = Pinnacle

[Dunbar]

I thought it might be of interest to compare the last future odds I posted (on Friday, May 4) to the parimutual payouts. The first number is the future odds from Friday, the 2nd number is the parimutual:


Sedgefield 70, 58.60
Curlin 4.85, 5.00
Zanjero 25, 36.00
StormInMay 72.5 , 27.20
ImaWildGuy 75, 28.90
CowtownCat 28.5 , 19.80
StreetSense 5.39 , 4.90
HardSpun 15.25 , 10.00
Liquidity 46.98 , 40.00
Teuflesberg 80 , 51.90
Bwana Bull 70, 50.30
Nobiz 8.9, 10.40
SamP 40, 43.70
ScatDaddy 8.85 , 7.20
Tiago 18.15 , 14.80
CircQuay 9 , 11.40
Stormello 40 , 44.80
AGS 16.15 , 13.60
Dominican 25.5, 24.90
Great Hunter 27, 25.30

6 of the 20 horses would have paid more in the parimutuals than the highest futures on Friday. Curlin was the best finisher of those 6.

I don't understand what the bettors saw in Storm In May to make him 27-1. I thought the futures price of 72-1 was more realistic. Huge difference, too, between the future on Imawildandcrazyguy at 75-1 and the parimutual at 28-1.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I thought it might be of interest to compare the last future odds I posted (on Friday, May 4) to the parimutual payouts. The first number is the future odds from Friday, the 2nd number is the parimutual:


Sedgefield 70, 58.60
Curlin 4.85, 5.00
Zanjero 25, 36.00
StormInMay 72.5 , 27.20
ImaWildGuy 75, 28.90
CowtownCat 28.5 , 19.80
StreetSense 5.39 , 4.90
HardSpun 15.25 , 10.00
Liquidity 46.98 , 40.00
Teuflesberg 80 , 51.90
Bwana Bull 70, 50.30
Nobiz 8.9, 10.40
SamP 40, 43.70
ScatDaddy 8.85 , 7.20
Tiago 18.15 , 14.80
CircQuay 9 , 11.40
Stormello 40 , 44.80
AGS 16.15 , 13.60
Dominican 25.5, 24.90
Great Hunter 27, 25.30

6 of the 20 horses would have paid more in the parimutuals than the highest futures on Friday. Curlin was the best finisher of those 6.

I don't understand what the bettors saw in Storm In May to make him 27-1. I thought the futures price of 72-1 was more realistic. Huge difference, too, between the future on Imawildandcrazyguy at 75-1 and the parimutual at 28-1.
--Dunbar

I was saying that all day Friday and Saturday. The fact that they went off at similar prices to the winner of the Blue Grass (regardless of whether he ran like dog doo doo) proves how much stupid money there is in the Derby pool.

[hockey2315]

It seems to me like the owners were betting on those two or something. . .