Finally the Aqueduct Finale

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

With the blinkers added today and the much softer field...Funny Cide has got a good shot today and he may not be the favorite!
The 1a & 3 may be "over the top" off their last efforts and the 4 is definitely the horse to beat.
I see it 5-4-1 in the King's Point.

[philcski]

Early P4 thoughts:

R2: Mastermind lays over this field and has enough early speed to gain the lead. Speed did very well yesterday and a repeat of his last race at this trip would win easily.

R3: Several in with a chance here; don't discount the chances of the #1 Expiration Day on the short rest, who with a repeat of her 3/11 race closing against the bias could figure at a nice price.

R4: Only one at a price that could figure, Keep a Knockin from Clement, who rarely cranks them up first out. Two steady works at Payson are a good sign. The favorites look solid, however.

R5: Flyaway Princess would be very tough if this race was in August '06, but I question her readiness off the long layoff. Only 4 works in '07, none of which are even remotely good. I like the 6, Nordberg. A repeat of her stake effort 2 back should be enough. The 1 showed good closing ability into a moderate pace last out and is on the improve; if the track is fair today she could surprise.

P4:
8/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,3,4,8/1,2,6
$72 ticket for a buck. Playing the 8/1,3,4/1,3/1,6 combo twice.

[hurricanefrank]

Race 4: MSW fillies 3yo&up 1 1/16 TURF
#8 Judith Basin (7-2) makes 2d start of '07 for Bill Mott; enters off useful conditioner, finishing good 2d to repeat winner Roshani (Pletcher); 4yo $650K Danzig filly is ready to hit winner's circle under Edgar Prado.
#3 Bit of Whimsy (5-2) ran huge in debut at GP at 11-1, leading in stretch before yielding late; trainer Tagg on fire (10-5-0-1); 3yo is one to beat under Cornelio Velasquez who chose her over top pick.
#4 Brantley (3-1) also makes 2d start as 4yo; Albertrani trainee finished length behind choice in '07 debut; should be in mix late under strong turf rider Eibar Coa.
#1 Keep a Knockin (10-1) is 3yo Live Oak homebred who should move forward today off troubled 5 wide trip in debut at GP; conditioner Clement hits at 22% with those making 2d starts off bench.

Race 6: $35K open clm 3yo&up 1 mile TURF
#7 Taken Not Given (9-5) appears poised to crush this rather lackluster field making 2d start of '07 for Gary Contessa; '06 turf Beyers tower over this bunch; got needed fitter on 4/17 in off-the-turfer; rolls today.
#8 Fairway Drive (3-1) makes first start of '07 but looks like main danger in first start in a claimer given '06 turf form and presence of Coa in saddle.
#2B Gift of Valor (7-2) is stronger part of Joe Acquilino entry; broke mdn in AQU slop on 4/12; meets winners 1st time but showed decent turf form this spring at the Fair Grounds; could nibble for a piece.

Good luck all.

[kenny p]

Race 9 All in C.J. should do it today.

[kenny p]

Originally Posted by kenny p

Race 9 All in C.J. should do it today.

He didnt lift a hoof today. The owners are sending him to Finger Lakes.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Early P4 thoughts:

R2: Mastermind lays over this field and has enough early speed to gain the lead. Speed did very well yesterday and a repeat of his last race at this trip would win easily.

R3: Several in with a chance here; don't discount the chances of the #1 Expiration Day on the short rest, who with a repeat of her 3/11 race closing against the bias could figure at a nice price.

R4: Only one at a price that could figure, Keep a Knockin from Clement, who rarely cranks them up first out. Two steady works at Payson are a good sign. The favorites look solid, however.

R5: Flyaway Princess would be very tough if this race was in August '06, but I question her readiness off the long layoff. Only 4 works in '07, none of which are even remotely good. I like the 6, Nordberg. A repeat of her stake effort 2 back should be enough. The 1 showed good closing ability into a moderate pace last out and is on the improve; if the track is fair today she could surprise.

P4:
8/1,2,3,4,5,6/1,3,4,8/1,2,6
$72 ticket for a buck. Playing the 8/1,3,4/1,3/1,6 combo twice.

Goddamn hangers. Don't know how the 1 or 6 couldn't get by there. UGHHHH I'm so sick of Aqueduct!!

[pmacdaddy]

Here is my late pk4 try. Last for the Big A.

3,7/1,4,5/1,3,5,6,7/4,6

[philcski]

P4 final:

2,8/1/1,3,4,5,6/1,4,8,9

$40 buckaroos. Probably pay $30.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Late pic 4

2,3,8
3
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,5,6

$60 for a buck

Doubles in the 6th

2,3,8/ 3

In the 7th I love Carminooch, betting him to win

Also betting Pa Pa Da to win in the 8th, he loves the Big A turf

I'm going to hammer the 1-3 exacta box. Unless FC gets 3 years younger today it's the only way I can see it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I must have smoking something to think I'd get a decent price on Carminooch. I think the box is pretty cold.

It's paying $18/$21, which I think is pretty square in a 5 horse field (with a no hope #2 in there, who's probably just prepping for a turf race and got hustled in to fill the race)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am an idiot, seriously. Instead of singling Carminooch, I could have included the only other horse who could have won that race for another $60 and the pic 4 paid $1284.

Matties horse ran well, and I should have punched the exacta there but I was too busy sulking.

I should have seen Coa hopping on in the last. A shame.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm just glad they're off to Belmont. Good call on Matties horse though. His horses have a knack for running well at nice odds.

Me too. I hate Aqueduct!!!

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Here is my late pk4 try. Last for the Big A.

3,7/1,4,5/1,3,5,6,7/4,6

I should be horse whipped for leaving Fairway Drive out in the 1st leg. Tried to get cute like a dummy and got burned. Paid pretty good too...

At least I caught the 6 to win in last.