Derby Future Odds, Presented by Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Curlin – 9/2
Street Sense – 6/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz – 9/1
Scat Daddy – 10/1
Circular Quay – 12/1
Any Given Saturday – 15/1
Hard Spun – 15/1
Tiago – 18/1
Dominican – 20/1
Great Hunter – 24/1
Zanjero – 28/1
Cowtown Cat – 30/1
Sam P. – 35/1
Liquidity – 50/1
Cobalt Blue – 60/1
Stormello – 75/1
Teuflesburg – 80/1
Sedgefield – 90/1
Storm in May – 100/1
Slew’s Tizzy- 100/1

Looks pretty good to me, hockey. The odds add to 104%, so you'd have to raise the odds on one or more horses to get it to 100%. But 104% is way closer to 100% than most people post.

According to your line, the biggest bargains in the futures right now would be Cobalt Blue (offered at 100-1) and SamP (offered at 45-1). Yesterday's 19-1 on AGS has disappeard.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Looks pretty good to me, hockey. The odds add to 104%, so you'd have to raise the odds on one or more horses to get it to 100%. But 104% is way closer to 100% than most people post.

According to your line, the biggest bargains in the futures right now would be Cobalt Blue (offered at 100-1) and SamP (offered at 45-1). Yesterday's 19-1 on AGS has disappeard.

--Dunbar

I thought I had it at 116% to account for take-out. . . maybe I did it wrong. . . I've never done one before

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I thought I had it at 116% to account for take-out. . . maybe I did it wrong. . . I've never done one before

Hockey, here's how you check whether the odds add to 100% (or to 116%, or whatever you are shooting for.)

Take each horse's odds, and calculate 1/(1+odds). Then add them up.

So, for Curlin you'd have 1/(1+4.5) = 0.182.
for Street Sense, you'd have 1/(1+6) = 0.142.
and so on down to Slew's Tizzy at 1/(1+100) = 0.010

When I add those up for your line, I get 1.045 (=104.5%).

It may be an interesting exercise to try to produce a morning line with a 16% takeout (to see how close you can come to the bettors?), but I think it's much more useful to work on a line where the odds add to 100%. If your "100% line" is good, then you can look for bets on horses with odds higher than those in your line. You can't do that when your line is a 16% takeout line. (well, you can do it, but you have to go far enough over to allow for the takeout.)

--Dunbar

PS--to convert the odds to takeout, there is actually one more step. You take the total (1.045 in your case), and calculate 1/1.045 = 0.957. That's the "pay back". The track take is 1 - "payback" = 1 - 0.957 = 4.3%.

For example, if you really want a 16% takeout line, then when you add up the terms 1/(1+odds) for each of your horses, it should add to 119%. Then the last step shows that 1 - 1/1.19 = 16%. Hope I didn't lose you on that one.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Hockey, here's how you check whether the odds add to 100% (or to 116%, or whatever you are shooting for.)

Take each horse's odds, and calculate 1/(1+odds). Then add them up.

So, for Curlin you'd have 1/(1+4.5) = 0.182.
for Street Sense, you'd have 1/(1+6) = 0.142.
and so on down to Slew's Tizzy at 1/(1+100) = 0.010

When I add those up for your line, I get 1.045 (=104.5%).

It may be an interesting exercise to try to produce a morning line with a 16% takeout (to see how close you can come to the bettors?), but I think it's much more useful to work on a line where the odds add to 100%. If your "100% line" is good, then you can look for bets on horses with odds higher than those in your line. You can't do that when your line is a 16% takeout line. (well, you can do it, but you have to go far enough over to allow for the takeout.)

--Dunbar

PS--to convert the odds to takeout, there is actually one more step. You take the total (1.045 in your case), and calculate 1/1.045 = 0.957. That's the "pay back". The track take is 1 - "payback" = 1 - 0.957 = 4.3%.

For example, if you really want a 16% takeout line, then when you add up the terms 1/(1+odds) for each of your horses, it should add to 119%. Then the last step shows that 1 - 1/1.19 = 16%. Hope I didn't lose you on that one.

Thanks! That helps a lot. . .