Curlin to be m/l fav

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I would certainly prefer for my selections to have three or (gasp!) more preps before the Derby, but does it really make sense to toss a horse just becuase they don't? Sunny's Halo did okay with only two preps. If SS or CQ had run in say....the Count Fleet this winter against the mighty Pink Viper....would that really help their respective Derby chances that much all these weeks later?
That just seems like a strange argument to me.

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Once again...the angles should be viewed as additional info, they don't replace handicapping! If you really like a horse, you should stick with him/her...just be aware of the angle for perspective (ie: if you think Curlin is a super horse then going against some of the strongest angles won't bother you...otherwise?)

Obviously.
It just doesn't seem that Java is using them in the way you suggest, and is rather using the 3-prep angle as rule rather than an "angle."
I think you and I somer, are saying the same thing.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

totally agree AJ. you are right on point. to continue on your point if I may Barbaro didn't "follow" any path last year did he??? geez, everyone wants to look at 4 or 5 criteria and presto---a derby winner. Isn't part of the fun using our heads and handicapping race shape, speed dynamics, post positions, past performances, trainer angles, etc, etc, etc...not just falling in love with "trends" or "followed paths." also, i am a firm believer that we will find the bluegrass and the tampa bay derby to be THE 2 key preps this year....from that you can see the exacta I like....BUT i may change my opinion as the day gets closer due to weather, workouts, etc....oh, wait a minute that might not be black and white enough......haha

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I won't be using simple mechanical rules (less than three preps can't win the derby). Ideally whatever horse I back in the derby would have three preps as a 3YO.

Also, I put no stock in a statement like "horse is following the same path as Barbaro". Guess what? Scat Daddy is not Barbaro. Scat Daddy is not infused with any special magic because he came from the Florida preps. I guess you went all in last year with Lawyer Ron cause he was following the Smarty Jones path?

Why do you call the Blue Grass a weak prep? Isn't it customary to determine if the prep was strong or weak by watching what happens to the horses the next time they race? I know it was an oddly run race but I think its too early to call it weak.

Blue Grass was a weak prep due to the early pace of the race as slow as one has ever seen. The horses did not get anything out of the race unless you call the 3 furlong dash to the wire worth noting? Horrible prep for them. It will be interesting to see next year who skips that Blue Grass to avoid that pathetic poly track. It did nothing to improve the foundation needed to move onto the Derby.

And tell me how you determine that Scat Daddy is no Barbaro? Based on what? Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was. If Scatt Daddy wins the Derby does he then compare to the great Barbaro? Would think so huh...

Java OUT

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was.

Oh wow! How many lengths is he going to win by then? 15? 20?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Blue Grass was a weak prep due to the early pace of the race as slow as one has ever seen. The horses did not get anything out of the race unless you call the 3 furlong dash to the wire worth noting? Horrible prep for them. It will be interesting to see next year who skips that Blue Grass to avoid that pathetic poly track. It did nothing to improve the foundation needed to move onto the Derby.

And tell me how you determine that Scat Daddy is no Barbaro? Based on what? Scat Daddy is better positioned going into the Derby than Barbaro was. If Scatt Daddy wins the Derby does he then compare to the great Barbaro? Would think so huh...

Java OUT

Absolutely agree with this statement here. Scat Daddy is a more accomplished runner than Barbaro was at this same point. At the very least, they are on a very even par. Whether or not he can duplicate Barbaro's feat and win the Derby remains to be seen. Truth is, he could run just as well and still not win it because he's facing a better group that Barbaro, IMO. But I think a lot of people look at what Barbaro did in the Derby and let it cloud their judgement of what was the general opinion of him before the race. Before the race, most people thought he was a definite factor in the race and had a good chance of winning but NOBODY could have predicted he was going to dominate the race the way he did.

[King Glorious]

I may be the only one on here that doesn't know but......what the hell is a RAN curse? I've been in this game for over 20 years and have never heard of that until I read that phrase on here a week ago. Anyone care to fill me in?

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I may be the only one on here that doesn't know but......what the hell is a RAN curse? I've been in this game for over 20 years and have never heard of that until I read that phrase on here a week ago. Anyone care to fill me in?

Well, a newbie with only 20 years of experience can't be expected to know such things (that's a joke!). Seriously, as Juliette Lewis would say, "since you asked!":
RAN Curse refers to breeding lines. RAN (Raise A Native) is arguably one of the greatest sires of the 20th century, if you check the Derby winners over the past couple of decades, you'll note that a huge number have RAN in their sire's sire line. I haven't checked but I wouldn't be surprised if about half the runners in this year's Derby have same. Despite that huge success and his production of successful broodmare sires, until Barbaro "broke the curse" last year, no runner with RAN in his dam's sire line had won the Derby. Wonderful horses such as Point Given had failed. There are breeding theories (LH+, stamina from dam) that could explain this...anyway, I would still be cautious of a horse with RAN in dam's sire line in the Derby...doesn't apply so much to other races although both the Preakness and Belmont have fewer winners than one would expect.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Well, a newbie with only 20 years of experience can't be expected to know such things (that's a joke!). Seriously, as Juliette Lewis would say, "since you asked!":
RAN Curse refers to breeding lines. RAN (Raise A Native) is arguably one of the greatest sires of the 20th century, if you check the Derby winners over the past couple of decades, you'll note that a huge number have RAN in their sire's sire line. I haven't checked but I wouldn't be surprised if about half the runners in this year's Derby have same. Despite that huge success and his production of successful broodmare sires, until Barbaro "broke the curse" last year, no runner with RAN in his dam's sire line had won the Derby. Wonderful horses such as Point Given had failed. There are breeding theories (LH+, stamina from dam) that could explain this...anyway, I would still be cautious of a horse with RAN in dam's sire line in the Derby...doesn't apply so much to other races although both the Preakness and Belmont have fewer winners than one would expect.

Thank u. I guess I have never heard of it because I think breeding and dosage stuff is the most overrated and useless information one can use in handicapping.

[JDank34]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

JG...nevermind

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Simple three preps before the derby period.... two preps for the both you mention... The last 1/8th will be their brick wall.

You want to look at foundation look at someone like Scat Daddy. Dual grade 1 winner, two 1 1/8 mile preps at 1:49. Who else can claim that? Horse is following the same path as Barbaro and getting totally ignored.

If you think the winner is coming off a weak prep (Bluegrass & an 8 week layoff) as Street Sense & Circular Quay are, please let me be your betting window May 5th.

Java OUT

I think the derby angles are a nice tool to consider for the Derby.. including the three preps angle.. but, to me, Barbaro broke more than the RAN curse last year.. His first prep of the year was the Tropical Derby on JANUARY 1st.. then the Holy Bull on February 4th.. then the Florida Derby on April 1st... so from January 2nd to KY Derby day, he had TWO preps.. (13 weeks leading up to the race.) --yes, I know technically he ran 3x in 2006 before the derby(but would you have tossed him had the Tropical Derby been Dec. 31st, instead of jan 1??)
As far as 'hitting a brick wall' in the final 8th, Barbaro could have easily faced that some concern as you are putting on SS and CQ... IMO.
So, I agree getting 3 preps is a big positive for a contender, but not essential under the right circumstances.
though, again, I think the angles are a useful tool in general.

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

I think the derby angles are a nice tool to consider for the Derby.. including the three preps angle.. but, to me, Barbaro broke more than the RAN curse last year.. His first prep of the year was the Tropical Derby on JANUARY 1st.. then the Holy Bull on February 4th.. then the Florida Derby on April 1st... so from January 2nd to KY Derby day, he had TWO preps.. (13 weeks leading up to the race.) --yes, I know technically he ran 3x in 2006 before the derby(but would you have tossed him had the Tropical Derby been Dec. 31st, instead of jan 1??)
As far as 'hitting a brick wall' in the final 8th, Barbaro could have easily faced that some concern as you are putting on SS and CQ... IMO.
So, I agree getting 3 preps is a big positive for a contender, but not essential under the right circumstances.
though, again, I think the angles are a useful tool in general.

I would have tossed Barbaro based on two preps if that was indeed what occurred prior to the derby. It did not. He still ran 3 preps in 06. If history is any indicator of past success in the Derby it is essential to have the 3 preps. Not to say it will not change in the coming years...but for now it is a proven theory of foundation building to win the Derby.

I posted earlier and I will repeat it...ask Bob Baffert what he felt Point Given was lacking after not winning the Derby? A third prep race! He did not have the foundation with only two preps. Hit the brick wall down the stretch did he not? Foundation Foundation Foundation...chant it with me now!!!

Went on after the Derby (3rd prep we will call it) and destroyed all competition. We should have easily witnessed a Triple crown winner but we did not. Do what you want come May 5th..but it will be an interesting thread when the race is complete to look back at figure who is right and who is wrong on historical trends of Derby winners.

Java OUT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I would have tossed Barbaro based on two preps if that was indeed what occurred prior to the derby. It did not. He still ran 3 preps in 06. If history is any indicator of past success in the Derby it is essential to have the 3 preps. Not to say it will not change in the coming years...but for now it is a proven theory of foundation building to win the Derby.

I posted earlier and I will repeat it...ask Bob Baffert what he felt Point Given was lacking after not winning the Derby? A third prep race! He did not have the foundation with only two preps. Hit the brick wall down the stretch did he not? Foundation Foundation Foundation...chant it with me now!!!

Went on after the Derby (3rd prep we will call it) and destroyed all competition. We should have easily witnessed a Triple crown winner but we did not. Do what you want come May 5th..but it will be an interesting thread when the race is complete to look back at figure who is right and who is wrong on historical trends of Derby winners.

Java OUT

If Barbaro ran on December 31st instead of January 1st would you have tossed him?

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

If Barbaro ran on December 31st instead of January 1st would you have tossed him?

oh yeah.....for sure. he would have only had two starts at 3 in that case, which means he would have no foundation at all. if that race had been on the 31st barbaro would have completely fallen apart in the last eigth and finished 12th.
also, horses that win the derby have rarely run on december 31st. it is known as the "new year's eve curse." why do you think matz waited until the first to run him. he is a clever bugger that matz.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I would have tossed Barbaro based on two preps if that was indeed what occurred prior to the derby. It did not. He still ran 3 preps in 06. If history is any indicator of past success in the Derby it is essential to have the 3 preps. Not to say it will not change in the coming years...but for now it is a proven theory of foundation building to win the Derby.

I posted earlier and I will repeat it...ask Bob Baffert what he felt Point Given was lacking after not winning the Derby? A third prep race! He did not have the foundation with only two preps. Hit the brick wall down the stretch did he not? Foundation Foundation Foundation...chant it with me now!!!

Went on after the Derby (3rd prep we will call it) and destroyed all competition. We should have easily witnessed a Triple crown winner but we did not. Do what you want come May 5th..but it will be an interesting thread when the race is complete to look back at figure who is right and who is wrong on historical trends of Derby winners.

Java OUT

really? I may be mistaken, but I thought Baffert said he wouldn't have changed PG's training leading up to the derby. I'm not disagreeing with the idea that 3 preps is a good idea, I just don't think a horse should be completely tossed based on it.

[Java Gold]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

really? I may be mistaken, but I thought Baffert said he wouldn't have changed PG's training leading up to the derby. I'm not disagreeing with the idea that 3 preps is a good idea, I just don't think a horse should be completely tossed based on it.

Zippy...instead of exchanging jabs with each other lets just work on our picks. You have your thoughts..I have my trends/angles. May you do well on Derby day...

Java OUT

PS: Really don't think Baffert was content losing the derby with PG do you? The fact remains he was short on Derby day. I contend he would have blown the field away if he was tighter.