grab some sack..a bettors opinion

[skippy3481]

Precisely, You start playing races where you have no real opinion just because you want some action. Which if all you want is entertainment, then by all means action bet away. But if your actually trying to make a little money, Your bankroll has to put on the horse you like the best. I find its also a good acid test. If i brought 200 with me and and i'm going to bet 150 of it on a horse, i better feel pretty strong. What it comes down to is, if you cant believe in your capping and your best bet of they day your going to lose money long-term. I'm still learning that lesson, but its gets better every day.

[skippy3481]

Jman,
I won't speak for hooves, but for me personally, my best bet is the horse that i think has the greatest shot of winning at odds greater then 2-1. Pounding chalk just doesn't work. To me it doesnt matter if the horse is 2-1 or 10-1. If im that sure the horse is going to win i will hammer it. Saying that horses that i love at 10-1 are greater are few and far between. Most of my locks come between 7/2 and 5-1.

[jman5581]

I pounded chalk on Curlin in the Ark Derby at even odds. He was the biggest lock of the day. But, it was more of a get out than it was a "strategic" play of the day. It depends on the chalk...some are worth putting a little more of your bankroll on because of their lower odds. To get the return you want.

A wise sage once told me, ask yourself, "How much money do you want to make today?" Take your best horse, decide how much you need to bet to make that and lay it down. Over time it should be a winning strategy. At least a break even strategy

[skippy3481]

I had a small wager also, I'm just not a big fan of betting short price horses to win. I went after the exacta.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the horse dont know the odds...fire away..and yes that play ..if hes 7/2 is good if he ....

can be tied into a exotic bet..ext 7/2 over a 4-1 ect

pick 3 6-1 over a 9-1 with your best play.. there is value witha shorter price out there ..this all depends on the card....lets go get the pick 3 and exotic bets tieing in curlin at ark derby..then we can talk about it..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

the late pick 3 payed 148.00 the pick 4 payed 1,900..yes there were a few long horses in that deal but..wide wide single two wide gets it.. i played theo the super and was thrilled it payed 396 for a buck..again if you keyed the winner ....

[skippy3481]

Thats where i think you make money on shorter priced horses. If you can find some juicy odds below you can make a great day. I hit the super in the 8th at keenland and look what it payed. With a short priced horse on top.

[pmacdaddy]

I have really started to enjoy playing the pick4 as my "action" plays most days. Instead of dumping a lot of money into exotics every race I have been trying to go through the PP's with an eye out for the 1 or maybe 2 plays to make outside the pk4.

When I can adhear to that, I find I do much better. Definitley strong guidance to focus on those plays and take your lumps when you are wrong as apposed to trying to cream every race. Something I need to remind myself often...

I am ceratinly still working on a winning strategy.

[skippy3481]

No doubt pmac. I am by no means an expert handicapper, but i learn everyday, and really i think thats probably the best foundation you can have. Lessons learned the hard way are not easily forgotten. When i first started off i played every race, all that i could find. Now, I'm down to 3 or 4 races off a card. Its really tough to stick to that and sometimes i fall off the wagon

[kenny p]

Hooves , This is a good thread. Im sure Im not the only one who has come home from the track with a decent profit and still feel like a loser because I didnt properly play the race I liked the most. KP