grab some sack..a bettors opinion

[jman5581]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

im saying that your should

a. pound your best play of the day
b tie that horse in exotics
c be smart if this is your best play of the day why not take full advantage of it..no matter what the race is..the other bets are action bets..real players that do this for a living dont make action bets..they may wait in the wings till they get what they think is a play..then like sharks to blood they destroy that horse ..in the three 4 and exotics..max ing out the advantage..

so, hooves, in the p3's and 4's you just mean to single your best play....and spread out on the other races. I tend to get caught up trying to catch prices in multi race wagers, even when I really like a horse that I could single and be fairly comfortable with.

[jman5581]

I got a bad habit of betting for action, I need to learn how to sit on it....sometimes hooves' theory doesn't necessarily cross my mind until I need a "get out." Has worked quite a few times.

[skippy3481]

Excellent advice hooves. it doesnt matter if your playing for a 100 or a 1000. If its your best bet of the day, the greatest portion of your bankroll should be on it.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by skippy3481

Excellent advice hooves. it doesnt matter if your playing for a 100 or a 1000. If its your best bet of the day, the greatest portion of your bankroll should be on it.

thats what im saying ...how many times have you pissed away cash on f around bets and then the play you like is sitting there and you go" light"

[jman5581]

hooves, when you say best play of the day, I assume you just mean the horse you consider to be the biggest lock (most likely to win, without regard to odds). Right? Because most of time, that horse is going to be less than 3-1, maybe 5/2 or less. If that's the case, I still agree with what you're saying. 5/2 on a couple hundred is a VERY nice return. Try doing that in the stock market, it'll take you a year at the least...unless you're trading options or penny stocks on "advice."

[skippy3481]

Precisely, You start playing races where you have no real opinion just because you want some action. Which if all you want is entertainment, then by all means action bet away. But if your actually trying to make a little money, Your bankroll has to put on the horse you like the best. I find its also a good acid test. If i brought 200 with me and and i'm going to bet 150 of it on a horse, i better feel pretty strong. What it comes down to is, if you cant believe in your capping and your best bet of they day your going to lose money long-term. I'm still learning that lesson, but its gets better every day.

[skippy3481]

Jman,
I won't speak for hooves, but for me personally, my best bet is the horse that i think has the greatest shot of winning at odds greater then 2-1. Pounding chalk just doesn't work. To me it doesnt matter if the horse is 2-1 or 10-1. If im that sure the horse is going to win i will hammer it. Saying that horses that i love at 10-1 are greater are few and far between. Most of my locks come between 7/2 and 5-1.

[jman5581]

I pounded chalk on Curlin in the Ark Derby at even odds. He was the biggest lock of the day. But, it was more of a get out than it was a "strategic" play of the day. It depends on the chalk...some are worth putting a little more of your bankroll on because of their lower odds. To get the return you want.

A wise sage once told me, ask yourself, "How much money do you want to make today?" Take your best horse, decide how much you need to bet to make that and lay it down. Over time it should be a winning strategy. At least a break even strategy

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

thats what im saying ...how many times have you pissed away cash on f around bets and then the play you like is sitting there and you go" light"

All the F*CKING TIME!!!

Good advice dude... basically better stratify your "strong" plays and your "fun" plays...

[fpsoxfan]

I think I know what you are saying. I've done this a million times. I'm not up in the calibar of you or some of the other guys in here, but I'm not a bad handicapper. The problem is...I'm a bad bettor. Too often I'm looking for a price. So, instead of hammering something I really like at say 2-1, 3-1, or 7/2, I'll try to beat it with something else because I don't like the price. On the other hand, I'll love a horse that's 35-1 or higher, but not have the BALLS to put it on top. It's something I'm really trying to change about my betting patterns.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I think I know what you are saying. I've done this a million times. I'm not up in the calibar of you or some of the other guys in here, but I'm not a bad handicapper. The problem is...I'm a bad bettor. Too often I'm looking for a price. So, instead of hammering something I really like at say 2-1, 3-1, or 7/2, I'll try to beat it with something else because I don't like the price. On the other hand, I'll love a horse that's 35-1 or higher, but not have the BALLS to put it on top. It's something I'm really trying to change about my betting patterns.

But, the world famous "Hanifan backwheel" has done wonders for your bankroll.

[ateamstupid]

Just so all of you know, this thread is a thinly veiled shot at me. Hooves thinks that I should be a millionaire, but that I don't bet right.

A little flexibility can be important also. Sometimes I think I know what my big play is going to be but the public pounds the play making it not worth it. I always have some other plays ready and everyonce in a great while a horse that I think is going to go off at horrible odds becomes the play of the day. Here of course is the where most people do not trust themselves (and maybe they should not)... they start asking whats wrong with the horse, what happened to the track, did the jock get sick, Im out of the loop. That is where the confidence needs to kick in, not self doubt. And if there is no play, I just enjoy the races themselves.

I still think the biggest problem is the desire to play too many races. 'I bought the form, I spent a good piece of time capping this race, by God im going to play it' even if the reward as determined by the public, is not worth the risk I see. This is the major downfall of most horse players I have talked to. But I am still in experimental mode. Once I get some time to really study... and I must say the polytrack is really exciting because it has so many people upset.
I just gotta make a trip in the summer and check it out.

In the meantime I play small with some exceptions, and am highly entertained.
I must say that a couple of times when I had the same horse as hooves, it made me a bit more confident in my play. I really try to make my own mistakes though.