How Bad is this Derby Betting Strategy?

Thunder Gulch · #1 04-18-2007, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tycharles01

No reason to hit the ALL button in the Derby. There are gonna be 7-10 horses who will be throw out just based on POST and PACE

I once thought this way and there may be something to it, but I wouldn't have put Giacomo or Closing Argument in my top 8-10. I argued til I was blue in the face with a guy about Bluegrass Cat last year about having him in a trifecta that was 6 deep in second. How about Invisible Ink running second? I had him, but unfortunately singled PG on top of everything I bet that day.

Back to the original question, if you total the numbers of the last 9, you would have a huge return with a simple all/all exacta. Now that is greatly inflated by Giacomo's $9600 bomb, but still you make money in 8 of 9 years. While this isn't the approved betting strategy, I sure wish I was loose enough to be so foolish.

miraja2 · #2 04-18-2007, 02:19 PM

I agree with others that ALL is not a smart play in the Derby. There are always at least a couple horses that you can definitely toss because they have demonstrated that they have absolutely no desire to go 9 furlongs, let alone 10. Start by identifying and getting rid of those horses.
Each year's Derby is unique so make sure you are basing your betting strategy around your handicapping analysis, and not the other way around. Good luck.