How Does Churchill Select A Winner In This Years Derby

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by docicu3

One of the most important handicapping lessons for me last year came during my research for Breeders Cup day after I read a review in DRF of a publication called "Crushing the Cup". A book published by "Progressive Handiacpping" that took the position that the uniqueness of Churchhill Downs would select in some cases for a certain kind of horse being successful last November. Among the characteristics cited were 1) an awkward first turn making positioning and post crucial and 2) the exceptionally long final straighaway to the finish line that has laid many a faint hearted horse to rest from glory.

Does the forum here see any particular set of horses as benefiting from the Churchill track other than the obvious Street Sense bias which was so evident during the horses breakthrough effort last November?

As an aside shouldn't the leading money winners in this graded earnings only system give the leading money winners post position advantages they have earned through the year?? In a potential 20 horse field the outside positions are cyanide in a closely contested group such as this.

Hopefully this will stimulate a little discussion for diversion on a dreary cold nonracing Tuesday wrought with the sureal hangover of yesterdays insanity in Blacksburg. My prayers to the other hokie parents not as fortunate as I with the safety of my own VT senior from yesterdays events.

You will find many astute handicappers who will tell you that post position is virtually meaningless in the Derby, and is therefore, an incredibly overrated handicapping angle.
Others, like yourself, view certain posts as "cyanide."
I suppose I fall somewhere in the middle. Posts matter some to certain horses, and are virtually meaningless to others based on their running style. A horse like CQ isn't going to be that compromised by drawing post 1 or 20 because he is pretty much going to be in the same position around the first turn regardless of his pp. A horse that is more of a stalker/middle-of-the-pack horse would be potentially more compromised by drawing one of the outside posts because the odds of him being caught ridiculously wide going into the first turn are much greater.
As for a long stretch, they are usually believed to benefit closers.

[docicu3]

So you disagree with statements about the first turn being "awkward" due to configurations which require more attention to the rail posts than most classic "route" contests. If your caught five wide when the first turn comes up are you not penalized for the duration of the race by having to overcome both distance and momemtum negatives that make winning or placing unlikely.....