BEYER: Poly's Anti-Speed Bias

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by saratoga guy

I am not great supporter of Polytrack -- I think there's been a rush by the industry to synthetic surfaces -- but I don't agree with Beyer here.

He seems upset that this year's Blue Grass can not be used as a barometer of talent for the Derby and he lays the blame on the Poly surface -- but c'mon, last year's Blue Grass was run on good ol' dirt, and that was at least as flukey of a race... Maybe moreso in fact, as the favorite finished fourth, 21 lengths behind the winner. In Saturday's race the favorite lost a head-bob and the top three finishers were certainly among those anyone would have considered as solid contenders in the race. Last year, second-place finisher Storm Treasure might not have been on a lot of tickets -- at 65-1. So it's hard to say that last year's dirt running was more of a barometer than this year's Poly race.

Personally I like the new Keeneland surface as a betting venue. I've done pretty well. But it does take an adjustment. However, if we all know the front-end is not the place to be, then the adjustment against pure speed isn't too difficult.

And, while I don't have complete stats, I did take a quick look at the weekend (Fri-Sun) and found that favorites went 9/25 on the main track. That 36% hit-rate seems to indicate that the betting public has adjusted just fine.

The head-scratcher for me in the Beyer article came after he declared that the Bluegrass would offer no insights into the Derby and he asked, "What's the point of running a rich stakes race when it won't even reveal whether the horses are good or bad, fast or slow?"

Hmmm, I thought the most important reason to run "rich stakes races" was so that people could handicap and bet on them -- and not so they could be used in the PPs to handicap the next race!

I normally prefer the turf only, but I must say that I like the polytrack races much better than dirt.

The biggest reason I stopped playing dirt races altogether was that I hated seeing some horse just get an early lead and walk in. Some tracks it would be so bad that whoever got the break usually won.