Teammate in Mother Goose

Greetings from floodland. Have been away at in the town where my grandmothers live and havent had any pc acess. Hopped on this morning at my cousins house. Hope everyone is doing well.
Tim I think what Scuds is trying to say is that the very often you critique a horses performance based upon its odds. This has no relationship in analyzing how a horse ran whatsoever, none. I simply see no correlation in how a horse ran and the odds it went off at. Once a race is over you simply review how each horse ran and critique it. Whether or not Teammate was a good bet that day is a completly seperate argument. Teammate simply refused to try that day for whatever reason.

[Gander]

I forgot who it was, somebody on this board or somebody at the track that day said Teammate may have been bothered by that craziness going on in the gate when Wonder Lady Anne and Miraculous Miss got scratched. Could make sense.

But regardless of the odds, I think Teammate is better going 2 turns. Thats just my opinion. I like her big time tomorrow. Jerken's horses are all running lights out and he says she is training beautifully since that awfully dull Acorn.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Greetings from floodland. Have been away at in the town where my grandmothers live and havent had any pc acess. Hopped on this morning at my cousins house. Hope everyone is doing well.
Tim I think what Scuds is trying to say is that the very often you critique a horses performance based upon its odds. This has no relationship in analyzing how a horse ran whatsoever, none. I simply see no correlation in how a horse ran and the odds it went off at. Once a race is over you simply review how each horse ran and critique it. Whether or not Teammate was a good bet that day is a completly seperate argument. Teammate simply refused to try that day for whatever reason.

Very good point by Oracle and Scuds. People often combine a past performance with a horses odds. The two dont have a thing in common. This is why race replays are the best handicapping tool in all of sports.

Now to the Acorn.....Lemons Forver--NOT A CHANCE IN HECK. This horse needs to be in two turn races. The horse should like the track but needs two turns. Bushfire has that extra furlong and I wouldnt touch her at all for the win in this race. Teamate looks good to me. I can forgive her last race. But the horse I am interested in is Joint Effort.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Very good point by Oracle and Scuds. People often combine a past performance with a horses odds. The two dont have a thing in common. This is why race replays are the best handicapping tool in all of sports.

Now to the Acorn.....Lemons Forver--NOT A CHANCE IN HECK. This horse needs to be in two turn races. The horse should like the track but needs two turns. Bushfire has that extra furlong and I wouldnt touch her at all for the win in this race. Teamate looks good to me. I can forgive her last race. But the horse I am interested in is Joint Effort.

Agree with everything you said, including Joint Effort.
Tim what the public thought a horse would do has no place in a discussion about how a horse ran. And I think that where it makes no sense is when you will say that so and so is a rat after losing at short odds narrowly and that so and so ran huge in the same type of effort because of the odds. Would Barbaro's Derby have been more impressive if he was 20-1 or less impressive if he was 3-5? I think that a race is a race, and the odds have nothing to do with it whatsoever.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Agree with everything you said, including Joint Effort.
Tim what the public thought a horse would do has no place in a discussion about how a horse ran. And I think that where it makes no sense is when you will say that so and so is a rat after losing at short odds narrowly and that so and so ran huge in the same type of effort because of the odds. Would Barbaro's Derby have been more impressive if he was 20-1 or less impressive if he was 3-5? I think that a race is a race, and the odds have nothing to do with it whatsoever.

You know Oracle--it cracks me up when I watch people handicap a race by first looking at the m'l odds or what the current odds are. Now, current odds are important to me in a race where there are some first time starters. But I usually handicap a race out of the DRF. Then I give the horses my own odds. Most of the time, I could care less what the betting public thinks.

[Gander]

For the 9th team I said I didnt like Teammate 2 days before the Acorn without any knowledge or any guess what the odds may have been. Someone piss in your cheerios this morning?

If she was 10/1 I still wouldnt have played her. For the record I got burnt when Hello Libert lost the close finish but I did use Bushfire in the picks.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You know Oracle--it cracks me up when I watch people handicap a race by first looking at the m'l odds or what the current odds are. Now, current odds are important to me in a race where there are some first time starters. But I usually handicap a race out of the DRF. Then I give the horses my own odds. Most of the time, I could care less what the betting public thinks.

That's so interesting Eurobounce- in my handicapping learning curve, I've discovered I also can't look at the odds or I start to get influenced. I actually prefer to download the PPs and not even buy the DRF in paper because I can get affected by what the experts think. Odds should affect only whether I bet the race or not, not who I think will win it.

And it sucks having no time to handicap the G1 contest on the other board... I'm getting smacked upside and down over there... ah well, life intervenes sometimes.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

That's so interesting Eurobounce- in my handicapping learning curve, I've discovered I also can't look at the odds or I start to get influenced. I actually prefer to download the PPs and not even buy the DRF in paper because I can get affected by what the experts think. Odds should affect only whether I bet the race or not, not who I think will win it.

And it sucks having no time to handicap the G1 contest on the other board... I'm getting smacked upside and down over there... ah well, life intervenes sometimes.

i do the same thing, go over the pps and make my choices...and then the tote board tells me if i play or not. or what to play. i also consider how often the fave wins (around 30%) and base some daily doubles and pick threes on which faves absolutely will win. hit the early daily at oaklawn last time i went because the first race had a huge fave that would NOT lose, and then an obvious (to me) winner in the second.
funny the things you find tho, that others don't. had a horse further down in the card who had the fastest time at the distance to be run out of the entire field. had been ignored and was 12-1. put him in the exacta with arch hall, first or second in his other races. AH ran second to my 'find', SWEET.

[blackthroatedwind]

Bushfire probably won't run until the Gazelle.

Pine Island will probably win the CCA Oaks and Alabama.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Gander,I apologize if I was rude.Part of what you originally wrote is useful stuff

"She will be much better this time around, gets a race (albeit a very bad one) under her belt and gets an extra furlong. Plus she will most likely be hard sent from the rail in a race that lacks any real sprinting speed.

Look for her to be 1-2 in this race, certainly cant see her being any worse than that.

I absolutely hate Lemons forever in this spot for all the reasons Oracle provided in a different thread."

The part that is just useless to anybody is the following part(and I don't know why you do it,but you do it often)............

"In my opinion, Teammate was very hard to love in the Acorn, off that kind of layoff basically sprinting, especially at a shorter than deserved price. She needs more ground and she needs to be on the lead. Even with a perfect break (which I dont think she got) she would have been hard pressed to outsprint both Bushfire (who has learned to rate) and Hello Liberty (fast sprinter). Not saying she was "impossible" in that spot, but 9/2 was ridiculously low per her chances at winning that race. "

[Gander]

The part that is just useless to anybody is the following part(and I don't know why you do it,but you do it often)............

Yes, as useless as you bringing my credit card debt into the discussion having to with Teammate.

Originally Posted by Gander

The part that is just useless to anybody is the following part(and I don't know why you do it,but you do it often)............

Yes, as useless as you bringing my credit card debt into the discussion having to with Teammate.

I got in credit card debt when I was younger. Then I got the best advice ever. Transfer the balance with 0%. Man was that a saver for me. Now I had 12 months to pay it off, but it is well worth it. One year later, BOOM $8000 in debt was gone.

[randallscott35]

Teammate could be alright.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Gander

The part that is just useless to anybody is the following part(and I don't know why you do it,but you do it often)............

Yes, as useless as you bringing my credit card debt into the discussion having to with Teammate.

Well, you write about your debt on here regularly.So,you're trying to tell us somebody was a bad play(but at the same time your plays aren't coming in ,or you wouldn't be in debt.)Right? Or are you saying your expertise is knowing what won't come in?(not what will come in,but what won't come in.)

WHOA guys, don't let this turn ugly and personal.
Tim, I agree with what you say about Teammate only to small extent. She could very well have been extremely upset when that incident occurred and we really don't know why she ran poorly, but I do know that the amount of cash the public put on her didn't make her run faster or slower.
Lets just cash some tickets this weekend guys.

[johnny pinwheel]

bushfire is the best 3 yo filly going right now.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Greetings from floodland. Have been away at in the town where my grandmothers live and havent had any pc acess. Hopped on this morning at my cousins house. Hope everyone is doing well.
Tim I think what Scuds is trying to say is that the very often you critique a horses performance based upon its odds. This has no relationship in analyzing how a horse ran whatsoever, none. I simply see no correlation in how a horse ran and the odds it went off at. Once a race is over you simply review how each horse ran and critique it. Whether or not Teammate was a good bet that day is a completly seperate argument. Teammate simply refused to try that day for whatever reason.

Well,a ton of us play pick 3,4 or 6.We don't care as much about what they pay to win.It helps,but we are trying to get through these races.I don't think many singled Teammate,but I don't think many could leave her off a ticket either.