Keeneland Saturday

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

hooves is busy, so starting a keeneland thread for today, i'm no hooves but will give it a crack.


race 1
pp 2 Skippy Due
pp 4 Golden Glen
pp 9 Cointreau
pp 8 Bank President

race 2
pp 4 George Ray
pp 11 Fandabidoo
pp 12 Glackity Glack
pp 7 Cajun Mon

race 3
pp 1 Sahara Heat
pp 1A No Reply
pp 3 Galloping Home
pp 5 Highest Degree

race 4 after 4.6 million in earnings, 8YO, Perfect Drift goes to blinkers?
off the turf-but keeping same selections
pp 1 Jader
pp 11 Third Half
pp 10 Stream Cat
pp 6 Starspangled Gator

race 5
pp 6 Marquee Delivery
pp 10 Granny Fanny
pp 4 Mini Sermon
pp 5 Pure Star

race 6
Pp 5 Mauralakana –hunch play because of the conditions
pp 2 Wait A While - best of the field
pp 4 My Typhoon
pp 3 Precious Kitten

race 7
pp 2 Reverential
pp 8 Nar
pp 5 Taint So
pp 7 Espirit Du Roi

race 8 tough-tough race
pp 4 Steel Light
pp 7 Midnight Lute
pp 8 Silent Name
pp 10 Gin & Sin

race 9 – like andy-trying to get Dominican second
pp 4 Street Sense
pp 2 Dominican
pp 7 Great hunter
pp 1 Zanjero


race 10 off turf
pp 11 Mama I’m Home - stab of the day
pp 5 Bea Plus
pp 8 Cologne
pp 1 Rosinka



lets get 'em again today!

Well, you've got most of the picks I used for the Keeneland contest in your picks somewhere. Didn't dive into potential exotics or anything, so just found my one horse per race.

Street 'Em Sheila in the 5th is one that stood out for me. Wanted to play her when I was at the OTB last time she entered, but she scratched. Like her shot here.

[MisterB]

Well we will see if the 1st race will yield to the only closer in here brian. Looks strong here, if they get a early hot pace. Barnett is a sharp cookie.

TIZ STORMIN brings the wet suit for todays try. Distance and Wet surface is not a problem. This horse will be overlooked, and could provide a nice overlay.

R2
#7 CAJUN MON looks to improve today. Might have ran 5th last out, but not that far behind the winner either.
Maybe the best value will be 5 KING BORDEAUX always gets my interest when going in for a tag first time. Have to think this group is much easier than the crowd prior. Has made frequent trips to the bank in earnings against priors.

R3
This race is loaded with talent. But I am going to toss in #4 DEPUTY ALYDAR with the favs in my picks. There is a chance this horse gets loose on the lead, and it doesn't cost me much to include.

[philcski]

R5: I really like #11 Scarlett's Place's chances in this race at 10-1. In her debut at Hol, she got slammed at the start, then rushed up between horses to grab 2nd behind a solid favorite, then weakened late to get nailed at the wire for 2nd. She will be much improved in this race, and while I respect the Pletcher filly speed is very poor on the Poly as we all know, which leaves the #10 (who ran super in her debut) off a long layoff as the other main contender.

R6: I feel very uncomfortable singling Wait a While on the soft turf, but she just may be that good. Since the start of '06 she has had exactly one poor effort, a disappointing 3rd in the Bonnie Miss. Getting beat 4 lengths in the BC by the other 2 best turf fillies in America and the best turf mare in the world isn't a bad effort, especially considering she was somewhat wide throughout. I really can't make a case for anyone else in here and would feel like I was throwing away money if I don't single her and she wins.

R7: A messy race I have no real strong opinion in, I will use 5 in the P4 and P6 and hope to survive- the 2,3,5,8, and 9.

R8: Steel Light is a beast. If he takes to the poly at ALL, he is unquestionably the one to beat. Missing all of '06 would be a huge black mark but he answered any questions about his physical condition in the Appleton, running a troubled second to Silver Tree who on talent alone is better than anyone else in here. Ramsgate is also a must use for obvious reasons; and the "most likeliest" winner outside of Midnight Lute. Ryan's for Real may or may not be for real; running a super 2nd to multiple G1 winner Silver Wagon at that guy's ideal distance/setup after dueling on the front end gives me hope that at 12-1 or higher he IS for real. Gin and Sin is a cut below these, but might be a good exotics add. Silent Name will likely take more action then I'd be interested in from a standalone race basis but I will not let him beat me in multirace wagers. I have no interest in the remaining group.

R9: Not much to discuss here that isn't already known; punch the 4 and 7 in multirace wagers and enjoy the battle. I can make a case for Zanjero and Dominican underneath but would be hard pressed to have them on top.

R10: Coming off the turf may be beneficial from a perspective of doping out this race. I will be using the 1 prominently, with the 4,7,8 as well. Has Kee Poly experience and success, and turns back off a marathon with a couple nice breezes in between that should sharpen her up.

P6 play:
4,10,11/2/8,9/4,5,7/4,7/1 $72
4,10,11/2/2,3,5/4,5,7/4,7/1 $108
4,10,11/2/8,9/6,8,10/4,7/1 $72

Total cost: $252

P4 play:
2,3,5,8,9/4,5,7/4,7/1,4,7,8 $120
2,3,5,8,9/4,5,6,7,8,10/4,7/1 $60

Total cost: $180 for $1

[ateamstupid]

They sure are taking their time in between races today..

[MisterB]

10 STREAM CAT , why not?? Might be ready!

[Scav]

I just don't understand how they can play Perfect Drift down to 8/5..

Box me 1,2,5,11 and win money on the 11

[Sightseek]

boxed the 4, 7, 8, 10 in the super & played the 8

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by MisterB

10 STREAM CAT , why not?? Might be ready!

got it.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

got it.

Far and in between

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

R6: I feel very uncomfortable singling Wait a While on the soft turf, but she just may be that good. Since the start of '06 she has had exactly one poor effort, a disappointing 3rd in the Bonnie Miss. Getting beat 4 lengths in the BC by the other 2 best turf fillies in America and the best turf mare in the world isn't a bad effort, especially considering she was somewhat wide throughout. I really can't make a case for anyone else in here and would feel like I was throwing away money if I don't single her and she wins.

FYI
its off the turf.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

FYI
its off the turf.

Yeah, just saw that. Spent 2 hours debating on whether she is vulnerable on the soft... it makes my decision easy. She isn't getting beat on the Poly.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

R5: I really like #11 Scarlett's Place's chances in this race at 10-1. In her debut at Hol, she got slammed at the start, then rushed up between horses to grab 2nd behind a solid favorite, then weakened late to get nailed at the wire for 2nd. She will be much improved in this race, and while I respect the Pletcher filly speed is very poor on the Poly as we all know, which leaves the #10 (who ran super in her debut) off a long layoff as the other main contender.

R6: I feel very uncomfortable singling Wait a While on the soft turf, but she just may be that good. Since the start of '06 she has had exactly one poor effort, a disappointing 3rd in the Bonnie Miss. Getting beat 4 lengths in the BC by the other 2 best turf fillies in America and the best turf mare in the world isn't a bad effort, especially considering she was somewhat wide throughout. I really can't make a case for anyone else in here and would feel like I was throwing away money if I don't single her and she wins.

R7: A messy race I have no real strong opinion in, I will use 5 in the P4 and P6 and hope to survive- the 2,3,5,8, and 9.

R8: Steel Light is a beast. If he takes to the poly at ALL, he is unquestionably the one to beat. Missing all of '06 would be a huge black mark but he answered any questions about his physical condition in the Appleton, running a troubled second to Silver Tree who on talent alone is better than anyone else in here. Ramsgate is also a must use for obvious reasons; and the "most likeliest" winner outside of Midnight Lute. Ryan's for Real may or may not be for real; running a super 2nd to multiple G1 winner Silver Wagon at that guy's ideal distance/setup after dueling on the front end gives me hope that at 12-1 or higher he IS for real. Gin and Sin is a cut below these, but might be a good exotics add. Silent Name will likely take more action then I'd be interested in from a standalone race basis but I will not let him beat me in multirace wagers. I have no interest in the remaining group.

R9: Not much to discuss here that isn't already known; punch the 4 and 7 in multirace wagers and enjoy the battle. I can make a case for Zanjero and Dominican underneath but would be hard pressed to have them on top.

R10: Coming off the turf may be beneficial from a perspective of doping out this race. I will be using the 1 prominently, with the 4,7,8 as well. Has Kee Poly experience and success, and turns back off a marathon with a couple nice breezes in between that should sharpen her up.

P6 play:
4,10,11/2/8,9/4,5,7/4,7/1 $72
4,10,11/2/2,3,5/4,5,7/4,7/1 $108
4,10,11/2/8,9/6,8,10/4,7/1 $72

Total cost: $252

P4 play:
2,3,5,8,9/4,5,7/4,7/1,4,7,8 $120
2,3,5,8,9/4,5,6,7,8,10/4,7/1 $60

Total cost: $180 for $1

Another day, another brutal loss. That's 2 p4's busted by a nose in a row. I can't win anywhere these days.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

Another day, another brutal loss. That's 2 p4's busted by a nose in a row. I can't win anywhere these days.

I caught your Pletcher disease!!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I caught your Pletcher disease!!!

Pletcher didn't beat me today... Keeneland did.
And the sad thing is I thought Dominican had a chance, but got cheap on the ticket because I figured if SS or GH had won it would be throwing money away. Of course, my single in the last won, just to kick me in the nuts!