Arkansas Derby Field

Beyer disciples must be pulling their hair out...

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Beyer disciples must be pulling their hair out...

I don't follow.

[cakes44]

Well if there's one trainer who knows how to point her horses to big races and have them ready to fire their best, it's Janet Davidson. I'd put her right up there with Drysdale and Frankel in this area.

[wigmore]

and running a maiden in key Derby prep is something both Drysdale and Frankel do with regularity right..

[FATPIANO]

Well if Tiago can break his maiden in a grade 1, Then anything is possible

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

Well if Tiago can break his maiden in a grade 1, Then anything is possible

Didn't he actually break his maiden via DQ in a 50k MSW in January?
That horse already had 3 races under his belt before he ran in the S.A. Derby. That is a lot different than making your debut in a race like that.

[AeWingnut]

a maiden in the Arkansas Derby? is Billy Patin up?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well if there's one trainer who knows how to point her horses to big races and have them ready to fire their best, it's Janet Davidson. I'd put her right up there with Drysdale and Frankel in this area.

That is beautiful

[Dunbar]

What's the purse distribution for the Ark Derby? What's the 3rd place horse get? I'm wondering if that will be enough to get into the Derby.

If it's $100K, they should have made it $101K--enough to break the deadlock with the 2 horses at $100K on the earnings list.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

What's the purse distribution for the Ark Derby? What's the 3rd place horse get? I'm wondering if that will be enough to get into the Derby.

If it's $100K, they should have made it $101K--enough to break the deadlock with the 2 horses at $100K on the earnings list.

Answering my own question, it's $100K. If one of the horses with no graded earnings finishes 3rd, it will be in an earnings tie with Chelokee and Reporting For Duty. If the cutoff ends up being $100K, and there is only room for one more horse (with $100K earnings), how will they decide which one gets in? Is it the horse that earned the $100K first?

--Dunbar

[AeWingnut]

looked Valhol up and they don't mention his win in the Arkansas Derby on the Dallas Keen website.

[Buffymommy]

I was really hoping to see Slew's Tizzy in this race. I had high hopes for that colt. He had a nice work out last week.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Beyer disciples must be pulling their hair out...

Yes, what exactly does this mean?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yes, what exactly does this mean?

I'm saying the same thing, but AFTER the race.

How does one fairly evaluate this race from a speed figures perspective when the fraudulent pace dictates a final time that is worthless?
I've taken the same approach to the Blue Grass results for many years, cross it out and re-evaluate the candidates. I guess that's the right answer here too.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm just trying to figure out, Phil, what that great giver of knowledge meant by its initial comments in this thread. Certainly someone so giving wouldn't want to make a snide comment.....I'm sure there was some brilliance behind that post and I am just too stupid to figure it out.

[philcski]

I've stopped trying to make sense of 90% of the sh!t on here.
Just sifting through for the nuggets of useful information and let the rest rot away peacefully.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by philcski

I've stopped trying to make sense of 90% of the sh!t on here.
Just sifting through for the nuggets of useful information and let the rest rot away peacefully.

Perfect! You've stated exactly what's on my mind recently. I think I put it to someone yesterday that I would just let the crap float on by.

Same sentiment.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I've stopped trying to make sense of 90% of the sh!t on here.
Just sifting through for the nuggets of useful information and let the rest rot away peacefully.

I know, we really need a troll filter on here so we can just get to the good stuff without having to spend an hour wading through all the $h!t.

[SentToStud]

I'm wishing it was only 90%.

I read the speed figure threads and it's unbelieveable people spend so much time dissecting them, criticizing them, etc...

In the end, any speed figure is only one subjective measure. Someone else's speed figure is interesting and perhaps somewhat useful but the way people obsess over this stuff is insane.

You're far better off spending your time watching the races and forming your own ideas about who ran well/poor in spite of/because of/irregardless of how the races were run and how YOU think they'll move forward.

Nobody is going to win money unless they work at it and use their own creativity. If all you can come up with for a race that's three weeks away with no drawn field is criticism of a published speed figure, how the hell are you going to play a Wednesday card anywhere?

I think there's different ways to do good at this but the 3 or 4 decent or better horseplayers I know give very nominal consideration to someone else's figs (and only slightly more to their own) and spend most of their time on how races were and will be run and putting tickets together.

My own two cents on the Derby is that it's fruitless to bet to win on anything short and betting a longshot to win is only a stab. I will spend whatever time I invest looking to do two things; 1. Form negative opinions on two or more of the "name" horses to the extent that I can leave them off a tri or super ticket. Right now, NoBiz from an unfavorabe post is perhaps one. 2. I'll spend most of my time following the 'bottom' 2/3 of the field and hopefully come up with two or three that I believe have a better than conventionally thought chance of crashing the ticket at 25-1 to 50-1 (or whatever).

That's just my thoughts on how I'll spend my time on the race. For what it's worth, I won't spend very much time looking at Speed Figs and none on why they are right or wrong.

good luck.

[blackthroatedwind]

Excellent post.....however I cannot allow a man of your literary esteem to get away scott free for using " irregardless ".