Did Anyone Notice?

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by estreetposse

And how many of these are still on the derby trail or capable of the distance?

There are 27 performances listed there........by 27 different horses. No repeaters on the list.

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And what does this have to do ,exactly,with the price of tea in China?




Let's make our point,sir.

[alysheba4]

something to look at but i never use them when picking horses........form,sheets.....22 years on the job

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

There are 27 performances listed there........by 27 different horses. No repeaters on the list.

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And what does this have to do ,exactly,with the price of tea in China?




Let's make our point,sir.

MR. MDF

Usually when talking 3yr olds, the point leads to those on the derby trail, if it is not the point then forgive me for reading in to it that far.

Lo siento Senor Emin Effer.

[packerbacker7964]

Flying First Class his time and speed number was a six furlong race at that. Many of these numbers are hogwash to me. Some are at a distance below a mile and some are a mile and change. To me it'll take watching the final two preps before I make my mind up and before I get into all of the numbers game. This will only the second time for Street Sense to race at the age of 3 and Curlin's 2nd time around two turns. So what we have here is alot of racing left to do in my book.

[King Glorious]

The point being made was how evenly matched this crowd is and how there is no standout among the group. Usually, u have a couple of horses that have put up more than one performance that places them on the board. None of them this year even have two placings on the board, let alone two in triple figures. The high figure among the colts is 107 in a sprint and 104 in a route. Let's look at last year's Derby field:

Keyed Entry had a 110 (sprint), 105 (route)
Sinister Minister had a 116 (route), 102 (sprint)
Point Determined had a 100 and 103 (both routes)
Showing Up had a 100 (at a mile)
Bob and John had a 102 (route)
Barbaro had a 103 (route)
Sharp Humor had a 102 (route)
AP Warrior had a 100 and 101 (both routes)
Sweetnorthernsaint had a 102 (sprint), 104 (mile), 104 and 109 (routes)
Deputy Glitters had a 102 (route)
Lawyer Ron had a 106 (route)
Brother Derek had a 108 (mile), 102 and 108 (routes)

From that group, there are 18 Beyer's of 100+ in races of 1m or longer. This year, so far there are 10. This year's high of 104 in a route was bettered last year six times.

The point I was making was to try to illustrate that this it not that good a group this year. There is consistency and there is the fact that last year's top 2yo's have been this year's best 3yo's. That's nice to see but it shouldn't cloud the fact that while they are consistent and evenly matched, they are below par for what should be considered a good crop. We've just seen a bunch of average performances by a bunch of average horses.

[quote=King Glorious]

The point I was making was to try to illustrate that this it not that good a group this year. There is consistency and there is the fact that last year's top 2yo's have been this year's best 3yo's. That's nice to see but it shouldn't cloud the fact that while they are consistent and evenly matched, they are below par for what should be considered a good crop.[quote]

HOw do we know they are below par? THese Beyer numbers are subjective adn they are a little bit self fulfilling if my undestanding of how they are arrived at is correct?

Until you come up with objective criterion to evaluate the absolute quality of a given crop there is no evidence of this.

I certainly agree this years crop is evenly matched to a large degree, what I dont agree is how we can be so sure this crop is below average.

Dont we have anythign objective? Final times, beaten lengths? Something?

[Mortimer]

Thank you KG.



That was good.

It's not exactly a dazzling group so far.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The point being made was how evenly matched this crowd is and how there is no standout among the group. Usually, u have a couple of horses that have put up more than one performance that places them on the board. None of them this year even have two placings on the board, let alone two in triple figures. The high figure among the colts is 107 in a sprint and 104 in a route. Let's look at last year's Derby field:

Keyed Entry had a 110 (sprint), 105 (route)
Sinister Minister had a 116 (route), 102 (sprint)
Point Determined had a 100 and 103 (both routes)
Showing Up had a 100 (at a mile)
Bob and John had a 102 (route)
Barbaro had a 103 (route)
Sharp Humor had a 102 (route)
AP Warrior had a 100 and 101 (both routes)
Sweetnorthernsaint had a 102 (sprint), 104 (mile), 104 and 109 (routes)
Deputy Glitters had a 102 (route)
Lawyer Ron had a 106 (route)
Brother Derek had a 108 (mile), 102 and 108 (routes)

From that group, there are 18 Beyer's of 100+ in races of 1m or longer. This year, so far there are 10. This year's high of 104 in a route was bettered last year six times.

The point I was making was to try to illustrate that this it not that good a group this year. There is consistency and there is the fact that last year's top 2yo's have been this year's best 3yo's. That's nice to see but it shouldn't cloud the fact that while they are consistent and evenly matched, they are below par for what should be considered a good crop. We've just seen a bunch of average performances by a bunch of average horses.

KG, I've noticed this too... but the good thing is there's a lot of depth which negates some of the lack of truly "fast" performances. So far only Street Sense has run a legitmately fast race and even I'm willing to admit that number is questionable based on the circumstance.

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by estreetposse

MR. MDF

Usually when talking 3yr olds, the point leads to those on the derby trail, if it is not the point then forgive me for reading in to it that far.

Lo siento Senor Emin Effer.

Odd Les Bois would be under your name.



Do you know the meaning of the term "fire to ice"...Mr. SesameStreetP u s s y Cat?

[ALostTexan]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

There are 27 performances listed there........by 27 different horses. No repeaters on the list.

--------------------

And what does this have to do ,exactly,with the price of tea in China?




Let's make our point,sir.

I thought it was quite interesting, and nice to see these numbers in one place...

ALostTexan

[MisterB]

This is info that means nothing at all. History, play it, and lose it. What bearing does a beyer have on the next race? Nothing

[estreetposse]

Originally Posted by ALostTexan

I thought it was quite interesting, and nice to see these numbers in one place...

ALostTexan

Mr. Post-It-All was replying to me Tex, sorry for the confusion,




and



your



point,



Mr. 5Knuckleshuffle???

[whodey17]

You cannot compare horses from last year to this year based on beyers. Look at Sinister Minister. He ran his beyer before Polytrack. I think consistency and competiveness is what makes a crop wonderful. Last year there was no one who came close to Barbaro. So far, I do see a standout this year.

[King Glorious]

U can find consistency and competitiveness in a $12.5k claimer at Santa Anita on a Thursday afternoon. Don't u want to see greatness or at least some stars when talking about America's supposed greatest race?

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U can find consistency and competitiveness in a $12.5k claimer at Santa Anita on a Thursday afternoon. Don't u want to see greatness or at least some stars when talking about America's supposed greatest race?

No one is really a star until the Derby. Barbaro wasnt a star until he won the Derby. I really dont care to see a star. I think when one horse dominates a division then it is rather boring. I would like to see 4-6 horses that are even competing at the top level for their division.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

U can find consistency and competitiveness in a $12.5k claimer at Santa Anita on a Thursday afternoon. Don't u want to see greatness or at least some stars when talking about America's supposed greatest race?

The difference is you can measure objectively consistency and competitiveness. You can look at beaten lengths, or PPs, or whatever. You can see horses that are finishing together.

But how do you measure greatness? Using final times is elusive at best. Even the best horses are not going to run good times if they are facing similar horses w/ similar styles. The pace pressure wherever it comes, will erode a good final time.

Maybe that is happening here? Maybe Street Sense only runs a 102 Beyer because he was under pressure the whole stretch or maybe he was forced run a little earlier than usual. They set a stakes record in this race adn only ran a 102 Beyer. Maybe it is the Beyers that are messed up???

Again: BY what objective measure do you measure greatest or how good is a given crop? I wait with baited breath.

[King Glorious]

I think that if u are going to believe that there is greatness in this crop, u have to assume that there is a lot of it because none of them are stepping up and really separating themselves from the pack. I feel like it's more likely that there is no greatness in this group and they are all good and evenly matched than that there are a bunch of great ones. Last year, horses like Bernardini and Barbaro really separated themselves. Of course, that started with the Derby so there is still the chance that could happen this year. But as of this point, I haven't seen any of them stamp themselves as a great one.