Nobiz Like Showbiz

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

Purely speculation but it is entirely possible that he gave him a little extra time after the last race anticipating a 4 week layoff but it would be hard to believe that he could be that short after all the training he's had and having just his eyeballs out run 3 weeks ago.

[Cannon Shell]

Dont forget that sheet numbers arent facts they are opinions

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Dont forget that sheet numbers arent facts they are opinions

bingo we have a winner..voodoo

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Purely speculation but it is entirely possible that he gave him a little extra time after the last race anticipating a 4 week layoff but it would be hard to believe that he could be that short after all the training he's had and having just his eyeballs out run 3 weeks ago.

i dont think they should even go to the derby with him, its a fact that he cant be nobiz or street sense he already had his chances vs both, i dont think he's better then a handful of others also, and after todays performance why go to the derby i'd give him time to regroup and point to the preakness.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i dont think they should even go to the derby with him, its a fact that he cant be nobiz or street sense he already had his chances vs both, i dont think he's better then a handful of others also, and after todays performance why go to the derby i'd give him time to regroup and point to the preakness.

I would love to bet you a serious amount of money that if both horses go Any Given Saturday finishes ahead of Tiago in the Derby.....and I am guessing I'm far from the only one.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would love to bet you a serious amount of money that if both horses go Any Given Saturday finishes ahead of Tiago in the Derby.....and I am guessing I'm far from the only one.

i would take that bet in a heartbeat.......
and its not all about today i have never liked any given saturday and i have liked tiago for a while and today's efforts by both only makes me feel stronger about my opinions

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would love to bet you a serious amount of money that if both horses go Any Given Saturday finishes ahead of Tiago in the Derby.....and I am guessing I'm far from the only one.

Wow! Can we say "straw man" argument?

WHen Pt. Given made that comment about AGS skipping the derby, at first I thought "No, no." But after thinking about it (a whole 5 minutes) it isnt the craziest idea by any stretch. Much as I like AGS he just seems destined come up short. He'd be a great bet to hit the board in the derby, but I dont see him winning it. Sure he's better than probably 12 or 13 other horses in the derby, but would he be able to beat whoever is left running in the stretch on derby day?


Think back to his stretch battles vs. Tiz Wonderful and SS were great but isnt he, just the tinsiest bit hesistant when he eyeballs the other horse...?


I'll leave it at that. YOu guys have far more experience than, me in this.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Wow! Can we say "straw man" argument?

WHen Pt. Given made that comment about AGS skipping the derby, at first I thought "No, no." But after thinking about it (a whole 5 minutes) it isnt the craziest idea by any stretch. Much as I like AGS he just seems destined come up short. He'd be a great bet to hit the board in the derby, but I dont see him winning it. Sure he's better than probably 12 or 13 other horses in the derby, but would he be able to beat whoever is left running in the stretch on derby day?


Think back to his stretch battles vs. Tiz Wonderful and SS were great but isnt he, just the tinsiest bit hesistant when he eyeballs the other horse...?

I'll leave it at that. YOu guys have far more experience than, me in this.

Yes, but the point is... he was involved in those stretch battles. He's THERE. A horse like Tiago will typically be there to run past the tiring horses (like Giacomo.) Just my take on it.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Yes, but the point is... he was involved in those stretch battles. He's THERE. A horse like Tiago will typically be there to run past the tiring horses (like Giacomo.) Just my take on it.

Yeah I know. He's (AGS) game for sure, and yesterday doesnt really change that. But it's not insane to say that he might be better by skipping.

As for Tiago yeah, AGS far more likelier to hit the board. Just because AGS gets a better result doesnt mean passing the race is a bad idea.

[Merlinsky]

When the race first started my reaction was 'crap, he's being rank.' Tagg seemed happy with the ride and said as much but Bailey was critical of Cornelio for more than one trip on the horse. Does anybody agree with that assessment or is the horse just harder than Bailey's giving credit? I thought Tagg felt he was easier to train than Funny Cide but does that correlate into an easier horse to rate for the jockey necessarily? I figured you can't just say it was the blinkers if Cornelio's had problems in the past but I didn't register them so was Jerry seeing phantoms bad-rides?

Honestly I can't ever quite get away from this horse just because I'm sentimentally happy for Albert the Great and he's one of those that can really use it and isn't expected to've gotten one like this. There are a few sires this year I'm happy for in terms of getting a big runner. I loved Barbaro by himself early last spring but right after his Derby win and I said "yay Barbaro!" my next impulse was 'yay Dynaformer!" It doesn't rule my picks but it adds to the enjoyment of them.

About Corinthian really quick, the action sounds like he's the typical headcase I've heard him to be but maybe it's more of an involuntary reaction on the assistant starter's part. Think about it, you're trying to keep a horse from spazzing and not let him go up but if he does it at the moment the doors open you're trying to turn him loose partly but some muscle memory says 'he's screwing around, hold' and you have to consciously let go...all this happens of course within a split second and not like you have time to think that whole thing in your head but I just mean it's instinctive to not let a rearing horse just bug out. Hypothesizing, sorry.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

When the race first started my reaction was 'crap, he's being rank.' Tagg seemed happy with the ride and said as much but Bailey was critical of Cornelio for more than one trip on the horse. Does anybody agree with that assessment or is the horse just harder than Bailey's giving credit? I thought Tagg felt he was easier to train than Funny Cide but does that correlate into an easier horse to rate for the jockey necessarily?

Honestly I can't ever quite get away from this horse just because I'm sentimentally happy for Albert the Great. There are a few sires this year I'm happy for in terms of getting a big runner. I loved Barbaro by himself early last spring but right after his Derby win and I said "yay Barbaro!" my next impulse was 'yay Dynaformer!" It doesn't rule my picks but it adds to the enjoyment of them.

About Corinthian really quick, the action sounds like he's the typical headcase I've heard him to be but maybe it's more of an involuntary reaction on the assistant starter's part. Think about it, you're trying to keep a horse from spazzing and not let him go up but if he does it at the moment the doors open you're trying to turn him loose partly but some muscle memory says 'he's screwing around, hold' and you have to consciously let go...all this happens of course within a split second and not like you have time to think that whole thing in your head but I just mean it's instinctive to not let a rearing horse just bug out. Hypothesizing, sorry.

I thought the same thing. I just find it hard to believe that this colt is going to win the derby... while he looked more professional in the stretch, derby day is a whole 'nother ball game.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

When the race first started my reaction was 'crap, he's being rank.' Tagg seemed happy with the ride and said as much but Bailey was critical of Cornelio for more than one trip on the horse. Does anybody agree with that assessment or is the horse just harder than Bailey's giving credit? I thought Tagg felt he was easier to train than Funny Cide but does that correlate into an easier horse to rate for the jockey necessarily? I figured you can't just say it was the blinkers if Cornelio's had problems in the past but I didn't register them so was Jerry seeing phantoms bad-rides?

As usual I think Bailey had it right. To me he wasn't so much saying that Corny doing something wrong, after all he won the race. I thought he was just pointing out that that same performance in the derby will not cut it and I agree. Like Bailey said, Corny has to find a way to get the horse to relax in the Derby, a tall order I think. If on derby day he has to strongly restrain him
for a mile, what do you think he will have left in the stretch?

I also am drawn to the horse, having liked his sire. He is such a nice looking colt and talented from the getgo. Problem is he has run at that same level six times now.

[outofthebox]

I thought the horse was a little headstrong, but not rank at all. At least Corn wasnt bouncing in the saddle or making the horse toss his head. He kept one hold of him and even got him to relax down the bs and dropped about 3/4 lengths back without giving up his spot on the rail. I credit his ride. Lets face it, weve seen other jocks take to much hold, then lose their position and it eventulally costs them the race. My overall opinion of this horse is that he hasnt improved one bit since his two year old year. He is game, he fights and shows up everytime, i give him credit for that. But im looking for just a little more from him, and so far havent seen it..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i dont think they should even go to the derby with him, its a fact that he cant be nobiz or street sense he already had his chances vs both, i dont think he's better then a handful of others also, and after todays performance why go to the derby i'd give him time to regroup and point to the preakness.

he lost by a scant nose to street sense, carried four wide while SS had the rail--lost ground alone would make up the nose difference and then some.
if a horse skipped the derby because he lost in the wood, we would not have genuine risk and secretariat as derby champs! it's a loss, not the end of the world.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he lost by a scant nose to street sense, carried four wide while SS had the rail--lost ground alone would make up the nose difference and then some.
if a horse skipped the derby because he lost in the wood, we would not have genuine risk and secretariat as derby champs! it's a loss, not the end of the world.

it's not just the loss, its the way he lost, maybe the street sense race took to much out of him, if they run him back in the derby in 4 weeks they could ruin the horse, it happens every year.

[randallscott35]

Andy, can you settle the debate on Corinthian vs. Magna Grad in the Corinthian thread? B/c I seem to be the only one thinking the Corin crowd feeling he would beat him "8 out of 10 times" and is a "much better horse" than Magna Graduate are on some serious drugs.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Andy, can you settle the debate on Corinthian vs. Magna Grad in the Corinthian thread? B/c I seem to be the only one thinking the Corin crowd feeling he would beat him "8 out of 10 times" and is a "much better horse" than Magna Graduate are on some serious drugs.

i switched that to 6.8/10, alot of other ppl also agree that corinthian is alot better to

[JJP]

AGS does bring back some memories of Bluegrass Cat: A Pletcher runner who run big at Tampa, then throw a poor race in his final Derby prep. BC ended up running 2nd at a big price. I'm sure AGS will not be as big a price as Bluegrass Cat was last year, but there will be many off the bandwagon (probably rightfully so) but at 15-1 or so he could be a longshot to spice up the exactas and/or tris.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Andy, can you settle the debate on Corinthian vs. Magna Grad in the Corinthian thread? B/c I seem to be the only one thinking the Corin crowd feeling he would beat him "8 out of 10 times" and is a "much better horse" than Magna Graduate are on some serious drugs.

I don't have an opinion other than realism and Corinthian have rarely gone hand in hand. He did run one very nice race in Florida, and another OK one, but he has still been WAY overhyped considering what he has delivered. I'm no great fan of Magna Graduate, and didn't like him at all today, but he has certainly accomplished a LOT more than Corinthian ( though he has also had more chances ), and nothing about Corinthian's actual on-track performances indicate that he is a better horse than Magna Graduate...much less as much better as beating him 8 out of 10 times would suggest.

But hey, there's a thread here right now which lists Tiago as a top five Derby contender, so reality and posting seem to be two seperate issues in more than one place.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't have an opinion other than realism and Corinthian have rarely gone hand in hand. He did run one very nice race in Florida, and another OK one, but he has still been WAY overhyped considering what he has delivered. I'm no great fan of Magna Graduate, and didn't like him at all today, but he has certainly accomplished a LOT more than Corinthian ( though he has also had more chances ), and nothing about Corinthian's actual on-track performances indicate that he is a better horse than Magna Graduate...much less as much better as beating him 8 out of 10 times would suggest.

But hey, there's a thread here right now which lists Tiago as a top five Derby contender, so reality and posting seem to be two seperate issues in more than one place.

Did you see the head on view of the start? Am I nuts in thinking the assistant starter still had a hold of him when the gate opened, which caused him to jump? (By the way, this has nothing to do with whether or not he's better than Magna Grad).