Nobiz Like Showbiz

ateamstupid · #1 04-07-2007, 05:00 PM

The figure probably won't be very fast, and the last eighth was pretty slow. I've been a Nobiz fan since the Champagne, but he's still goofy, and it's concerning in my opinion. What I don't understand is why Tagg doesn't put a full-cup blinker on the horse's right side, because every race, it's the same story: Nobiz hits midstretch and starts gazing at the Grandstand and gets focused too late. The regular blinks aren't going to stop that, and if anything, they're going to make him less relaxed earlier in the race.

I love the colt, but I wasn't terribly impressed by anything from him today other than him gamely holding Sightseeing at bay.

Cannon Shell · #2 04-07-2007, 07:38 PM

He want to be a front runner, plain to see

blackthroatedwind · #3 04-07-2007, 07:39 PM

He ran 1 1/2 seconds slower than Magna Graduate.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #4 04-07-2007, 07:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He ran 1 1/2 seconds slower than Magna Graduate.

thats fine, i love that.... he was alot more professional today thats all that matters, i dont want to see him run to fast now, i want him to run fast on the first saturday of may.

golfer · #5 04-07-2007, 07:47 PM

Andy, what did you think of Any Given Saturday's performance? From a sheets standpoint, he regressed off a 2 pt top in Tampa and only 3 weeks recovery time.

POINTGIVEN1985 · #6 04-07-2007, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Andy, what did you think of Any Given Saturday's performance? From a sheets standpoint, he regressed off a 2 pt top in Tampa and only 3 weeks recovery time.

i know im not andy, but there is nothing good about any given saturdays performance he had a fine trip and at the top of the stretch when it was time to run he quit.

sumitas · #7 04-07-2007, 07:52 PM

then he may be in for the 0-2-X bounce in the derby

blackthroatedwind · #8 04-07-2007, 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfer

Andy, what did you think of Any Given Saturday's performance? From a sheets standpoint, he regressed off a 2 pt top in Tampa and only 3 weeks recovery time.

I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

randallscott35 · #9 04-07-2007, 07:52 PM

Maybe, just maybe that Tampa race wasn't nearly what people thought it was. Next week will tell the tale.

Danzig · #10 04-07-2007, 07:54 PM

he didn't perform to expectations, but if he has enough graded to get in, then the plan worked--except for the poor showing of course. but at least now he does have an extra week between now and the derby, and we all know how much people love time between races now.

deviation from the plan is why i'm really starting to shy away from hard spun. they are really seeming to flounder now, over-thinking the situation with that horse.

Cannon Shell · #11 04-07-2007, 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

Purely speculation but it is entirely possible that he gave him a little extra time after the last race anticipating a 4 week layoff but it would be hard to believe that he could be that short after all the training he's had and having just his eyeballs out run 3 weeks ago.

King Glorious · #12 04-07-2007, 08:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not a bounce guy, but.....

To be honest, and I really liked this horse going into today's race, and he was just dreadful, but I would have to say today's result may be a reasonable example of why deviating from laid out plans can blow up in your face. Pletcher had presumably been training him to run next week and now he ran a week earlier than originally planned. I'm no trainer, and maybe Chuck could offer his opinion, but I don't think it's inconceivable that what we saw was a short horse. He has run well in the past, and today's effort was SO bad that I am inclined to think there has to be some story.

U don't need Chuck to tell u this. This is EXACTLY what I said would be the case before the race.

King Glorious · #13 04-07-2007, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He ran 1 1/2 seconds slower than Magna Graduate.

I know, I know........totally different circumstances but for what it's worth, Nobiz didn't even run as fast a final time as he did when winning the Remsen last year. I will be interested in what the figures are for today. He was given a 97 Beyer for the Remsen. His career figures have been 96-92-97-98-94 and then today's race. He's a consistent horse but certainly not a brilliant one and from my perspective and seemingly from Beyer's, he hasn't progressed one bit. He's just consistently good but not anything more than that.

Suffolk Shippers · #14 04-07-2007, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know, I know........totally different circumstances but for what it's worth, Nobiz didn't even run as fast a final time as he did when winning the Remsen last year. I will be interested in what the figures are for today. He was given a 97 Beyer for the Remsen. His career figures have been 96-92-97-98-94 and then today's race. He's a consistent horse but certainly not a brilliant one and from my perspective and seemingly from Beyer's, he hasn't progressed one bit. He's just consistently good but not anything more than that.

excellent point, he is consistently a top performer...but can those consistent numbers translate to a $2 million score on Derby Day? I tend to think not.
Nobiz reminds me a little of Smarty Jones, a very hard horse to keep under wraps. Cornelio did today to an extent, but I don't trust him over the long term doing it. Stew Elliot did well in keeping Smarty under wraps, until the Belmont...

Holland Hacker · #15 04-09-2007, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know, I know........totally different circumstances but for what it's worth, Nobiz didn't even run as fast a final time as he did when winning the Remsen last year. I will be interested in what the figures are for today. He was given a 97 Beyer for the Remsen. His career figures have been 96-92-97-98-94 and then today's race. He's a consistent horse but certainly not a brilliant one and from my perspective and seemingly from Beyer's, he hasn't progressed one bit. He's just consistently good but not anything more than that.

According to the DRF site Nobiz ran a 99 in the Wood on Sunday. At least it is his Lifetime Best Beyer.

The horse I like after watching the Wood is Sightseeing. In each of his last two races his BSF increased by +/- 10 points. IF he can do that again in the Derby he could be the Winner.

Maybe I'm ignorant but with respect to Magna Graduate running a faster time than Nobiz aren't older horses supposed to be faster than younger ones?

NTamm1215 · #16 04-09-2007, 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

According to the DRF site Nobiz ran a 99 in the Wood on Sunday. At least it is his Lifetime Best Beyer.

The horse I like after watching the Wood is Sightseeing. In each of his last two races his BSF increased by +/- 10 points. IF he can do that again in the Derby he could be the Winner.

Maybe I'm ignorant but with respect to Magna Graduate running a faster time than Nobiz aren't older horses supposed to be faster than younger ones?

Older horses are absolutely supposed to be faster, but 1.5 seconds is kind of a lot. The fact of the matter is the Wood come-home was not all that great. Magna Graduate on the other hand ran an incredible race and his 111 Beyer backs that up.

NT