Using Beyer Speed Figures

[Labeeb]

Never offer anything free to horseplayers...you're bound to run into spinners.

But in all seriousness, the advice offered above is sound for a foundation from which to understand figures, how to apply them, and learn about racing. As you progress in your education, you'll desire slightly more sophisticated tools. But the BSFs are probably an OK place to start.

[Dunbar]

Just to add a couple of things to philscki's very good response...

The Beyer's are your starting point. You know from reading the book that they don't take trip problems or bias into account. If you think a horse lost 3 lengths by being checked in its last race, then you can adjust the BSF for that race up by about 5 points if it was a route race, less if it was a sprint. If you think there was a good rail bias all day and the horse you are capping ran along the rail, you should adjust the BSF down. How much? That's the tough part.

I actually work in "beaten lengths". I take an average of the BSF's for each horse's last 2-3 races, weighing the most recent race more heavily, then convert the difference between those averages to "beaten lengths". (If the hightest horse has an 80 ave and another a 77 ave, I'd use 5 beaten lengths for the 2nd horse if it's a route race.). Once I am working in lengths, I can adjust the lengths according to trip factors from the previous races, again weighting the most recent race more heavily. I can also give lengths of credit for how the horse's running style fits today's race. If it is the lone speed, I will credit it with some lengths. If it is running from post 12, I will debit some lengths, depending on the horse's style and the particular oval. You get the idea. The BSF's give me a good starting point for making these adjustments.

--Dunbar

[SentToStud]

Zip,
These are all good answers.. A fairly new player needs to be able to identify reasonable contenders. Using speed figs -- whatever they are -- is a great starting point, especially in races for older horses with established form. Among the simplest ways to do this is to take each horse's last 3 figs from races run at similar distances/class. If a horse's worst figure isn't good enough to beat the average of the middle figures for the top 3-4 other horses in the field, he's probably not fast enough to win.

There's tons of ways to use speed figures. I don't advocate you betting based solely on what I described, but it's a decent sort of exercise for a fairly new bettor. The key is to get used to using figures in a somewhat disciplined manner and to try and see what happens when you vary your approach. You'll find your way.

Good luck.

[pmacdaddy]

I would also add that I think the Speed Figs can be very helpful in reading form patterns a given horse exibits. If PP's show that a horse runs a lower speed figure off layoff, followed by an improved effort second or third off, it can be useful. Other horses may exibit a two good efforts, clunker, two good good efforts clunker, etc. For me the speed figs really bring this to the surface.

I also think they are very good to point out when a horse is ready to bounce, often 10+ point improvement between races IMO (especially in the young guys/gals).

There are usually lots of other factors to consider, but I think speed figs are a great place to start when looking at a race.

Best of luck. This site is a great resource.

[zippyneedsawin]

welcome to the board Zippy, nice name!

[Thunder Gulch]

Let me recommend two excellent books to help. You can probably get either at Amazon rather cheaply.

Joe Cardello wrote one of the paperback DRF books "Speed to Spare" showing numerous patterns and angles for using Beyer's. It's an easy read and will really point you in the right direction.

Dave Litfin's "Expert Handicapping" is the another outstanding book on patterns. He takes it a couple of steps further with Sheets and trainer patterns, but he also has illustrations using Beyer's. He has some excellent material on spotting rapidly improving, lightly raced horses.

[Linny]

I use them to spot patterns and maybe eliminate some really slow horses. if every high fig has been followed by a very low one then he might be a play against today if last time he earned a big #. He'll be overbet today and probably has no shot.
Another use is in the "career box" in the upper right of the PP's. If a horse will race on a surface today (wet/grass etc) which he's run over before but long ago enough that the races are off the PP's, I use his best BSF's as a guide.

I like the beyer speed figures. You just can't rely 100% on them to pick winners. Pace is the critical factor that you have to sort of figure out on your own. I use the equibase numbers instead of the beyers but I really use pace to dictate my betting.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Labeeb

Never offer anything free to horseplayers...you're bound to run into spinners.

Well done.