Lanes End...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again....that would be incorrect.

Tracks can favor speed horses, closers, inside or outside....but they cannot, by the very definition of the word, favor a horse because of its odds...whether it seems like that to you or not.

Although I suppose you could make the argument that the average bettor is poorer at handicapping polytrack than other surfaces so it is more likely that a longshot wins. The surface doesn't favor them, the bettor is just poor at recognizing which horses will do well.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Although I suppose you could make the argument that the average bettor is poorer at handicapping polytrack than other surfaces so it is more likely that a longshot wins. The surface doesn't favor them, the bettor is just poor at recognizing which horses will do well.

It's possible that the odds are not quite as true on the new surface but I would guess that, minus takeout, even at Turfway, with the large sample, the horses ran very close to their odds over time....minus outlyers like regular surfaces.

[JJP]

TP had a 10 day stretch or so back in Jan or Feb where over 60% favorites won so its not a bargain hunters paradise. Some head scratching longshots seem to win there also. I guess I'm making a good case to avoid Turfway; a mixture of heavy chalk and implausible longshots; good types to avoid at most tracks.