Circular Quay the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner

[sumitas]

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

I think that is already changing and will continue to do so as the trend to send frontrunning sprinters to the Derby if they can get the graded earnings continues. If it keeps up as it is I think it will become extremely difficult to win the Derby if you are within 3 lengths of the speed duel at first call. Even Barbaro was four lengths back at the first call.

[Linny]

Finishing second in 2 G1 routes hardly marks a horse as a "failure" at a route. No one was beating SS in the Juvie, but he was closest at the end. If a criticism was to be made it would be for the race at KEE, where so many closers held the adbatage and he was beaten by Great Hunter.

I like CQ but I'm not handing him the gold trophy quite yet. I don't think he's a closing sprinter though either.

[MisterB]

This thread is funny

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I think that is already changing and will continue to do so as the trend to send frontrunning sprinters to the Derby if they can get the graded earnings continues. If it keeps up as it is I think it will become extremely difficult to win the Derby if you are within 3 lengths of the speed duel at first call. Even Barbaro was four lengths back at the first call.

Agreed. And with more and more horses wanting that prime "stalking" spot will that not set more derbies up for the off the pace type such as not only Unbridled but Monarchos and Giacomo as well. I dont personally like CQ but feel he will be a part of SUperfecta mix

[miraja2]

The key is that Ravel's defection from the trail does not affect my guarantee that Cowtown Cat will run 16th in the Derby, because I had already factored it in.
The more I look at it, the more sure I am. There is no possible way Cowtown Cat could finish any better or worse than 16th. It is a mortal lock.

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

They are not. Dude you need serious help.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

As Cardus posted on an earlier thread:

Originally Posted by Cardus

Eleven of the last 25 Derby winners were closers. Here is the list:

Giacomo
Monarchos
Fusaichi Pegasus
Real Quiet
Grindstone
Sea Hero
Lil E. Tee
Strike The Gold
Unbridled
Ferdinand
Gato Del Sol

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

Monarchos was at the rear, Charismatic was well back, Grindstone....I know what you are saying and I prefer somebody in the second tier, but it's not that rare. It's less likely that somebody wires the field.

HEre is the count I get from 1960 to present, 47 data pts, it seems:

23/11/6/7

Closer/stalkers/presser/front runner

Some notes: I counted FuPeg as a closer as he was 6 1/2 back at the 1/2 mile. I had to reclassify Charismatic as stalker as he was w/in 4 len. when he started passing all those horses on the backstretch. Smarty I have as stalker, although the Preakness I thought he pressed. Thunder Gulch reclassed as presser looking at the PPs. Barbaro stalker, although some think of him as a E/P...

I tried to base it on 0-2 lengths=presser; 2-4: stalker, 4 1/2 or more closer. It was not a completely uniform count, some based on a previous internet discussion some based on charts, some based on trips notes from the Ky derby site. BUt the trip notes are pretty good in that regard, if they say "well in hand" you can assume closer, if they say "never far away" assume pressing, etc. Also I didnt make it uniformly based on 2nd call, if it was a close call I tried to use best 2 out of first 3 calls. But in most cases, the 2nd call was descriptive.

If you think this is off, send me a PM and I'll send the complete list...

THe same sort of ratio goes back even to the 50s, here's the updated count, from 1947 to present, 60 data pts...

28/14/8/10

closer/stalker/presser/gtw

Based mostly on the trip notes. Notes seem to be pretty clear as to where the horse was running, not real sure on Tomy Lee, described as "snugged in behind the leader," calling him a stalker, could mean a presser..

[Pedigree Ann]

Don't forget the Derby winners on or close to the lead who got the wet-track assist - like Go for Gin and Smarty Jones (the Monsoon Derby). Do they get run down on a dry track? Some believe so.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Don't forget the Derby winners on or close to the lead who got the wet-track assist - like Go for Gin and Smarty Jones (the Monsoon Derby). Do they get run down on a dry track? Some believe so.

I don't think anyone was running down Smarty Jones that day on any surface.

Do you honestly think that a dry track would have let Imperialism or Limehouse come get that horse?

Originally Posted by moodwalker

I don't think anyone was running down Smarty Jones that day on any surface.

Do you honestly think that a dry track would have let Imperialism or Limehouse come get that horse?

Thats what I think was funny after the Derby. The wet track thing popped up, and then the Preakness field was crushed. Good Lord look what the animal did at Belmont. He got pushed hard by two diff. very good horses and still barely went down. Smarty ran on any dirt you gave him.

CQ is gonna need a Giacomo set up and I dont see that happening for a while. Some lessons were learned in that burn up that have not had time to become a passing memories.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by sumitas

very few horses win the derby from well off the pace. it has been done, Unbridled was one, but it is rare. most derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead on the first turn. this is not a favorable scenario for CQ.

I can think of a few besides Unbridled. Strike the Gold, Grindstone, Giacomo, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Sea Hero, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Gato Del Sol and Pleasant Colony were all closers who won the Derby,

As for CQ, if he doesn't win, it won't be because his style, IMO. I don't think he's Pletcher's best 3YO, let alone the nations best.