Curlin v. Cobalt Blue

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Cobalt Blue earned a 96 BSF compared to Curlin's 97. . .

visually i thought curlin was 10 times more impressive, i thought his number would come back 4-5 points higher than cobalt blue

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

visually i thought curlin was 10 times more impressive, i thought his number would come back 4-5 points higher than cobalt blue

Oh man!

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

visually i thought curlin was 10 times more impressive, i thought his number would come back 4-5 points higher than cobalt blue

Again even though the tracks run very differently, over 2 seconds difference seems very large. I know Santa Anita is fast but over 2 seconds??? (looks like 2.3 seconds) diff. with the winning horse on the slower track (Curlin) winning by a much wider margin.

The times must have played too much of a role in those Beyers if one horse was far more visually impressive than another (which I dont agree with, I think Cobalt Blue showed wonderful restraint, a very professional run for a relatively inexperienced horse first time going two turns) and the numbers are almost exactly the same. Maybe that big bad Grade II was given extra points or something.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It really is almost a 2 second difference if you look at some of the results for each track on Saturday. At Santa Anita 16K claimers go in 1.10. At Oaklawn an allowance race at 6F goes in 1.12 and 3. The tracks are very different time wise.

Then maybe they automatically consider a Grade II more worthy even though in this case it was not.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am almost 100% positive class of the race has no effect on the Beyer. It's way too difficult to compare times on different tracks. Personally I don't even look at times, because of how different tracks are. I mean tracks change dramatically from one day to the next, even same day. I think looking at how a horse did it and who they beat is much more valuable than trying to compare times for different races and analyzing why horse A got a certain figure and why horse B got another. Just my opinion.

Well this is what Beyers are supposed to help with in the first place.

But Im going to tell you, even though I personally was more impressed with Cobalt Blue than Curlin (and I am in the minority) I thought the BSF's woud be something like Cobalt Blue 92, Curlin 100.

[JJP]

IMO there's no comparison. Cobalt Blue was lone speed setting a soft pace in a small field over the SA dragstrip. Curlin was wide on both turns and blew the Rebel field away, and still wasn't 100% minding his manners in the stretch. If he had run straight at GP, he'd probably have won by 22 lengths. As for Cobalt Blue, I was much more impressed with Air Commander in that race. He was wide and definitely hurt by the slow pace. I would not be surprised if come December, Curlin was the best 3YO of this crop.

[slotdirt]

I won't be betting Curlin to win the Derby just like I didn't bet Showing Up to win last year's Derby after three career starts. Horses absolutely need more seasoning in a 20 horse field than Curlin will have. This isn't an angle like dosage or the BC juvenile jinx; this is an angle based on the fact that it takes more than three races to truly prepare a horse for a 20 horse field in May of his or her 3YO season.

[slotdirt]

See Steve Haskin's comments in his latest "Derby Trail" column on Bloodhorse:



Times certainly are changing. Here we are wondering if Ravel can become the first horse since 1918 to win the Derby off only four career starts, and we’ve got Curlin, who, if he turns in another big performance in the Arkansas Derby (gr. II), no doubt will attempt it off only three career starts, which has only been accomplished by Regret in 1915. He’ll also try to become the first horse since 1882 to win the Derby without having started as a 2-year-old.

Needless to say, the odds are against Curlin.

Originally Posted by JJP

IMO there's no comparison. Cobalt Blue was lone speed setting a soft pace in a small field over the SA dragstrip. Curlin was wide on both turns and blew the Rebel field away, and still wasn't 100% minding his manners in the stretch. If he had run straight at GP, he'd probably have won by 22 lengths. As for Cobalt Blue, I was much more impressed with Air Commander in that race. He was wide and definitely hurt by the slow pace. I would not be surprised if come December, Curlin was the best 3YO of this crop.

And the BSF say a virtual tie. Thats what I dont get. I thought they would be very diff. in favor of Curlin even though I personally like Cobalt blue more.

[hockey2315]

BSFs have notthing to do with pace scenario, running style, etc. . . They deal with final times, speed of the surface, and par times. . .