blind betting.....

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I was going through old race results on equibase, and tell me what you think of this strategy. I know it is stupid and no fun because you don't actually get to try to pick winners and use what you know, but here is what it is and I am going to try it. Pick one track for a day, and put 10 dollars to win on one number for every race on that card. I simulated it a few times using the 6 at random tracks, and everytime I came out a little bit on top because I cashed a few longer shots. I am really going to try this, 100 bucks is the most I can lose on a 10 race card and you would think the 6 will come home atleast once. What are your guys thoughts besides how stupid this sounds??

I agree with you completely. It is stupid.

What are you thinking? Are you thinking that the 6 post is somehow vastly underbet by the majority of bettors? Why in the world would you think that?

The results you "simulated" were thrown off by the couple of longshots that happened to be included in that particular sample. In the longrun, you will lose at about the track take if you always bet the #6 horse. So everytime you put down your $100/day, you can expect to hang onto about $84 of it. If you bet it at Pinnacle, the rebate will bring you back up to $91 of it.

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

This sounds like my greyhound strategy... K, gotta throw the 8 dog in those boxes with the puppies. You are right that the middle dogs tend to have a lot of traffic issues, but the 8 wins the second most races behind the 1.

From the dumb bet department...after Giacomo last year, we figured that an ALL/ALL exacta box would have won money in three of five Derbies since they went to the 20 horse mutuel field. with a very nice overall profit due to some monster scores...also worked well in the Belmont with Sarava, Commendable, Lemon Drop Kid.