Early Derby bet thoughts.....

[Grits]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

After the Bluegrass Stakes, which if memory serves me is three weeks out.

YES I am serious, that early!

BGrass is on the 14th, second weekend of the meet. About a month out.

I don't look, seriously, until the week before, during the works at Churchill.

[randallscott35]

Way way too early to talk about a Derby bet. Wait till the April preps.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Grits

BGrass is on the 14th, second weekend of the meet. About a month out.

I don't look, seriously, until the week before, during the works at Churchill.

I start the roughing in process much earlier. I first start really trying to separate the field down into groups, potential winner(s), potential to hit the board, and toss out candidates. During this time I spend a lot of time watching replays and trying to identify the stronger prep races.

I look at how I might want to construct super or tri tickets, and what horses might crash the tri/super at big odds.

With a 20 horse field there are just so many combinations that its a big chore to find a way to fit my budget.

During the final days before the derby I start to focus on the surrounding races to see what kind of pick4's or pick three's I might want to play.

Of course all the while this is continuously subject to modification even up to the morning of the derby considering how the track played on Oaks day.

So thats why I start early because if I wait until the final week to start my planning there is just too much to do.