Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab

[blackthroatedwind]

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

[randallscott35]

Actually let me think about this. We both would get the win end so maybe that is right...Now I'm confused.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

Yes, I know Andy. I'm just getting fired up.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

Okay, burdened with the heavy responsibility of carrying this study forward, I felt I ought to re-read the thread. ;>)

Now I'm curious about what btwind meant by the part I highlighted above. Does the fact that the place payout is given in two pieces somehow overcome the fact that the exacta has a generally bigger takeout?

A dart thrower at Keenland is going to lose 16% plus breakage making place bets. His dart-throwing pal is going to lose 19% plus breakage betting exactas. It's not jumping out at me why the exactas have any mathematical edge. I'm asking because I may be missing something fundamental.

--Dunbar

[Grits]

Today, I believe Blackthroatedwind indicated he was traveling south of NY to Camden Yards and an afternoon of baseball. When he returns, he can clarify. If he misses your question, maybe send him a pm. He can clear it up I'm sure.

[Dunbar]

Nice day for the Exactas!

Day 29 (No dark days included) April 11, 2007
Carryover differential: PLACE BETTING +$72.20

AQ: Race2-- PL 7.60 EX 19.60
AQ: Race3-- PL 8.40 EX 35.40
AQ: Race5-- PL 13.00
AQ: Race8-- PL 16.60
KE: Race4-- PL 16.20 EX 97.40
KE: Race5-- PL 10.00
KE: Race5-- PL 13.20
KE: Race6-- PL 29.40 EX 98.00
KE: Race7-- PL 12.00
SA: Race3-- PL 13.60 EX 84.20
SA: Race4-- PL 11.80
SA: Race5-- PL 23.20
SA: Race7-- PL 15.80



Today's races: EX $334.60, PL $190.80
Today's differential: EX +$143.80

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3413.60, PL $3342.00
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$71.60

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (221) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 69 (31%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--656

I've tried to keep it in Randall's format, but I've added a daily total. And when two 10-1 horses finish 1st and 2nd, as in Keenland Race 5, I am putting them on separate lines.

--Dunbar

Edited to make btwind's correction. (see below).

[blackthroatedwind]

You credited the 8th at Aqueduct as an exacta win and it wasn't as I believe the Frankel horse was the favorite.

[Grits]

Dunbar, this was a great day for exacta and place amounts.

You've done a fine job, thank you so much for taking over.

I will owe you as well.

[Dunbar]

Day 30 (No dark days included) April 12, 2007
Carryover differential: EXACTA BETTING +$71.60

(AQ cancelled after 2)

KE: Race1-- PL 23.00
KE: Race2-- PL 6.60 EX 38.40
KE: Race3-- PL 16.80
KE: Race7-- PL 9.40



Today's races: EX $38.40, PL $55.80
Today's differential: PL +$17.40

TOTALS SO FAR: EX $3452.00, PL $3397.80
OVERALL DIFFERENTIAL: EX +$54.20

Total Number of 10-1's or higher in spots 1 or 2: (225) Will Stop=250
Total Exactas so far: 70 (31%)

Total races run at all tracks during the contest--675

It tightens up a bit, assuming I didn't make a mistake!.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

To further what I just said.....each particular horse is an example...i.e. the horse wins you get X for the place bet and lose the exacta and any horse that places you get X for place and Y for the exacta where Y can be zero.