Closest you have come to the big score...

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like that idea Randall. Find 200 races where the second finisher was between 10-1 and 20-1 and see if you do better betting $2 to place or a $2 exacta beneath the favorite.

I second that motion.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Grits

I'm gonna tell ya like a friend here RS, if you could get rid of that undulating little tart for an avatar, honestly darlin' I could take you a lot more seriously in regard to horseplaying.

As far as my mentor you don't wanna mess with me there. I've spent years listening to this man. I CARE, very much. Because, he's forgotten more than someone that plays on weekends, or casually, and bets ATB on longshots will learn in a lifetime. He played day in, day out. It was his living for a very longtime. He still plays. He's very good at it. AND when you do this for a living--you keep impeccable records, not to mention the involvement with CHARTS before Formulator came along. I imagine he kept charts on a point such as this as well. Good horseplayers know what works over the long haul.

You and I'll do fine RS, we just disagree on this and that's ok.

I've kept records since 2000 for tax purposes.

Changed my avatar for you(i change it twice a week)
And if its a relative, I wasn't knocking you caring about them--sorry if you took it that way.

As for the charting I will be happy to do it. I will come up with some ground rules and we can both agree on those, but the only way to do it is to chart every single race that a longshot---over 10-1 finishes second regardless of where the favorite finishes....Give me some time to set this up.

[Grits]

Thanks for changing your avatar RS, I know you feel better now! LOL

The thing to do here is pick one race meet only, or two at the most, don't jump all over the country like someone with A.D.D., Gulfstream runs several more weeks, so does Santa Anita.

It would be better for someone that is in to this, as you say Scav is.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just looked up 17 days at Aqueduct and found 25 examples where horses finished second at ANYTHING over 10-1.....you got a total of $371.30 if you bet place and $626.50 if you used them all second to the favorite in the exacta.

If I just focus on 10-1 to 20-1 the numbers are $156.70 for place and $225.60 for the exacta.

It's only 25 races....but the blind exacta is looking VERY strong.

[2MinsToPost]

It really is simple in my small mind. Its your money and whatever satisfaction, gratification etc you wanna get from betting the horses you will do. It may not be the "best" way, and you may go for decades on the losing end of the pendelum. Thats fine, cause its your money. On the other side of that pendelum.......................................... ......

Their will be people who will wager different, a "better" way and in the long run, over decades, they will "profit".

Who is happier?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Nope that's not how it would be done. It would simply be charting all races. You are assuming the favorite is winning. You would do every race. Sometimes it would work out with the fave over a longshot and sometimes it won't. That's the only way it would work....You would only be using races where the favorite wins and obviously when they win at only a 30% clip, that would be faulty.

Of course Randall....you look at any race where the second horse was over 10-1 and see what you got for place and whether or not you hit the exacta. If the favorite doesn't run second you get zero for the exacta.

I am not assuming the favorite ran second. I am using EVERY race where the place horse was over 10-1.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I like that idea Randall. Find 200 races where the second finisher was between 10-1 and 20-1 and see if you do better betting $2 to place or a $2 exacta beneath the favorite.

Andy, is that really the fair or comparitive analysis? I mean, I am just thinking this through, but how would you know, in hindsight, that you would play that 10-1 to 20-1 horse (that finished second) as opposed to another 10-1 to 20-1 horse? Do you then expand the play to include a second exacta underneath the favorite?

Thanks.

Eric

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ELA

Andy, is that really the fair or comparitive analysis? I mean, I am just thinking this through, but how would you know, in hindsight, that you would play that 10-1 to 20-1 horse (that finished second) as opposed to another 10-1 to 20-1 horse? Do you then expand the play to include a second exacta underneath the favorite?

Thanks.

Eric

Eric, that's not the point. It is an analysis of how ONE would have done had they bet THAT SPECIFIC LONGSHOT in one or the other manner. The ones that don't finish second can't be used in an analysis because you lost your $2 whether you bet place or and exacta. It's the only way you can do the study.

I would like to see a sample of 500 and will grab the charts weekly at DRF to get a larger sample size. It's too cumbersome running through charts on Formulator.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Eric, that's not the point. It is an analysis of how ONE would have done had they bet THAT SPECIFIC LONGSHOT in one or the other manner. The ones that don't finish second can't be used in an analysis because you lost your $2 whether you bet place or and exacta. It's the only way you can do the study.

I would like to see a sample of 500 and will grab the charts weekly at DRF to get a larger sample size. It's too cumbersome running through charts on Formulator.

OK -- I have to think this through, LOL. Thanks.

Eric

[Grits]

Also, in doing this, one has to keep in mind. This bet is not made in the first place without one clear and solid, postime favorite.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ELA

OK -- I have to think this through, LOL. Thanks.

Eric

You'll see what I mean.

Believe me, I thought the same thing when I started. Just think about it as completely hypothetical. It's sort of counterintuitive because it is by its very nature " resulting "....but that's how it has to be done.

[randallscott35]

I'm not making someone else run this Grits. I will do it. You can check everything I do and I'm about as honest as it comes which the others can attest to. Plus, I'm as interested in the results as you are.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I'm not making someone else run this Grits. I will do it. You can check everything I do and I'm about as honest as it comes which the others can attest to. Plus, I'm as interested in the results as you are.

Aqueduct is a funny track to use as the fields are smaller, but that makes the payoffs lower, and I would love to look at Turfway and Gulfstream.

Like I said, I will grab some charts weeklys from DRF, and maybe we can get a real sample size. I think it's a neat study.

By their very nature, the exactas should be better, as the takeout is dispersed to two horses. However, the results I got from the small sample were pretty incredible. I was pretty surprised. But, it was only a group of 25. 500 - 1000 would be better.

[ELA]

OK, not to sound selfish, but when the study is done -- can someone please help me out and let me know how this info can help me? Please!!! I need all the help I can get, LOL.

Eric

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ELA

OK, not to sound selfish, but when the study is done -- can someone please help me out and let me know how this info can help me? Please!!! I need all the help I can get, LOL.

Eric

Just follow along in the contest thread. If it is clear one method is better than another, then you could follow the advice of that and bet accordingly.

Back to the original thread........ Powerscourt getting DQ'd in the Arlington Million.....missed the P4 (I think it was over 2K) Not a big loss compared to most on here....but it was an agonizing 10 minute inquiry.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by deltaforce97

Back to the original thread........ Powerscourt getting DQ'd in the Arlington Million.....missed the P4 (I think it was over 2K) Not a big loss compared to most on here....but it was an agonizing 10 minute inquiry.

Nothing quite like getting DQ'd for real money. Might be one of the sickest feelings imaginable.

I once bet $300 on a 5-1 shot with Wiggy Ramos ( 9th race on a Sunday at Belmont ) who got DQ'd. Ramos NEVER rode another race in NY. You can look it up....it was a Jimmy Bond horse at the Belmont Spring-Summer meeting of 1995. Probably early in the meet.

[ManilaRose]

2004 Breeder's Cup for sure. I spent 3-4 hours the night before handicapping the Pick 6. I'm not a big money player so I came up with a ticket somewhere around $150. My roomate and I were going to split the cost and share the ticket. Living in Lexington we were going to Keeneland the next day to meet friends, place the wager, and watch the races. The night before we went out and I for some reason tried to break the world record for most Red Bull and Vodkas consumed in one night. We got in around 5 AM and needless to say didn't wake up in time to place the wager. Long story short.... I had 5 of 6 which WOULD have paid 56,000+. The only horse I missed was Wilko which I actually helped foal and raise. I thought $7.50 for the Red Bull and Vodka was expensive, little did I know a whole night of them would cost 56K.

[PPerfectfan]

Taste of Paradise getting nosed out of the BC. I was robbed, robbed I tell ya.hehe For the Pick 4. And also missed the Giamaco Derby tri cause I had Alex on top w/ Giamaco/Closing Arugement(who I loved) and Dont get Mad. And I was to dumb to play the Super. I loved,loved Closing Arguement. And while I made a ton of money on him, the tri would have been so much sweeter. My biggest score was the Mandella Breeders Cup. I hit the Juvy tri,the Late Pick 4...singled to the one the only PPerfect. And to boot had $20 across on him and $20 across on Action This Day! The old coggers at the OTB thought I was some crazy poor women who doesnt know how in the world to handicap and they were all giving me advise, trying to talk me off of my bets. But as the races progressed, I looked smarter and smarter.hehe

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by PPerfectfan

Taste of Paradise getting nosed out of the BC. I was robbed, robbed I tell ya.hehe For the Pick 4. And also missed the Giamaco Derby tri cause I had Alex on top w/ Giamaco/Closing Arugement(who I loved) and Dont get Mad. And I was to dumb to play the Super. I loved,loved Closing Arguement. And while I made a ton of money on him, the tri would have been so much sweeter. My biggest score was the Mandella Breeders Cup. I hit the Juvy tri,the Late Pick 4...singled to the one the only PPerfect. And to boot had $20 across on him and $20 across on Action This Day! The old coggers at the OTB thought I was some crazy poor women who doesnt know how in the world to handicap and they were all giving me advise, trying to talk me off of my bets. But as the races progressed, I looked smarter and smarter.hehe

Props for having Giacomo PERIOD. I tossed him...

I also liked Closing Argument and Afleet Alex, but not to win. I was on the Bellamy Road bandwagon.