Derby horses

[Sightseek]

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

[philcski]

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Not sure he's underrated, though... there were quite a few members on here who felt the same way as you. He ran a hell of a race IMO, but I'm concerned that 1 1/8 is about as far as he's going to go. Thoughts?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

Stormello's Fountain of Youth. People are going to focus on the come home time as poor but look at the pace he set, 1:09 4/5 was a full 15 lengths faster than the Gulfstream Handicap. The fact that he lost by a head bob after that is a fantastic performance.

Agree...and how would you rate Scat Daddy's performance?

[saucon17]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

I thought his race in the Risen Star was unbelivable to finish 5th
after jumping the horse and rider in the spill

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by saucon17

I thought his race in the Risen Star was unbelivable to finish 5th
after jumping the horse and rider in the spill

I agree... I think he's got a huge shot on Saturday.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

All of Circular Quay's races were pretty over-rated to me.

totally agree

[Java Gold]

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Java Gold

Watch the 2006 Hopeful against Scat Daddy.

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

That would be #1 on the overrated list.

This race often gets discredited but all I can ask is what more should the horse have done? Yeah the pace was fast and the setup was perfect for him, and then he did EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, exploding from the back of the pack and winning easy. Say what you want about any of his other races, but how could this be an overrated performance?

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

Relative to what?

I will have to watch it again but it didn't seem to me like anyone ran particularly well.

Except, of course, Johannesburg Star.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I felt that Hal's My Hope ran a decent race as well in the FOY. What did you think?

Considering he was completely overmatched I think he ran the best of the rest. He'll fit very nicely in a second level allowance race at GP.

NT

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

At least on message boards, by definition all of these horses are overrated, but it's hard not to have Circular Quay on your list. What exactly has he accomplished that people keep talking about him like he's ANYTHING special? At least Scat Daddy, who I am not a huge fan of, has delivered a few times and even overcame adversity in his Saratoga Stakes win ( over an arguably talented Teuflesburg, at least sprinter, who got an ideal set up that day ).

Circular Quay may well win this weekend, as the race is not super tough, but so far he is all talk and no substance.

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I think a little ground can be given to Adore the Gold since it was his first start around two turns and I think he will improve quite a bit.

As far as your statement on Circular Quay, I think everyone fell in love with his quick late moves in the Bashford Manor and Hopeful and that's what earned him favoritism in the BC Juvenile. Forgotten among it all was that the pace scenario was perfect and those raecs were contested around one turn. However, based on what I said before about the Hopeful in particular, didn't he do exactly what he was supposed to do, given the way the situation unfolded?

I think Circular Quay will eventually make his living around one turn. He has shown the style thus far that would be great at 7 furlongs.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

He is a closing sprinter at best who got tremendous setups in both of his stakes wins.

However, he did have significant trouble in the Risen Star, so he deserves a pass for that. His BC Juvie was weak, as he was not nearly as wide on the turn as some seem to believe, and as DrugS has pointed out numerous times was simply a beneficiary of a huge pace that collapsed. He lost by ten lengths for God's sake.

His second in the Breeder's Futurity was flat out dreadful. He had a picture perfect trip and did next to no running. The first and third horses were significantly better than him that day.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I think a little ground can be given to Adore the Gold since it was his first start around two turns and I think he will improve quite a bit.

As far as your statement on Circular Quay, I think everyone fell in love with his quick late moves in the Bashford Manor and Hopeful and that's what earned him favoritism in the BC Juvenile. Forgotten among it all was that the pace scenario was perfect and those raecs were contested around one turn. However, based on what I said before about the Hopeful in particular, didn't he do exactly what he was supposed to do, given the way the situation unfolded?

I think Circular Quay will eventually make his living around one turn. He has shown the style thus far that would be great at 7 furlongs.

NT

Speaking of which, Run alex Run, the 3rd place finisher in the Bashford (and maybe the favorite?) makes his first 3yo start at Oaklawn tomorrow.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I kind of agree with both of DrugS's points about Hard Spun ( God I hate when that happens ) but would say Adore the Gold is somewhat underrated. I think the entire FOY may be a garbage race but he is the only one I want out of that race.

I have to agree with Adore the Gold....he ran well, especially considering his starting post.

I think no one can argue that Circular Quay is by far the most polarizing 3-YO out there. One way or another, everyone seems to have a pretty strong opinion on him!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by deltaforce97

I have to agree with Adore the Gold....he ran well, especially considering his starting post.

I think no one can argue that Circular Quay is by far the most polarizing 3-YO out there. One way or another, everyone seems to have a pretty strong opinion on him!!

He may be polarizing.....but where's the beef? If he wasn't trained by Todd Pletcher, which is to his advantage I guess, NOBODY would be talking about him.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I actually think a strong comparison could be made between Hard Spun's loss in the Southwest Stakes and Giacomo's loss in the Sham Stakes.

Both horses had outside draws, against pretty shaky fields, as clear-cut favorites. Both horses were taken out of their preferred running style, and both horses got hung up very wide (4-to-5 wide) on both turns, over tracks that had both been playing very kindly to inside-speed.

Because of the way the track was playing, Giacomo was gunned by Mike Smith to seek out a good tactical position, he never got one, but he was hung up very wide into the 1st turn, while just one length off of a 46 and change pace. He ended up finishing a competitive 3rd and running a 98 Beyer, when he had ABSOLUTLEY every reason in the world to spit the bit with the trip he got...considering what style a horse he was.

However, everyone made a big deal about him losing to the shaky sprinter Going Wild, who was stretching out 3 furlongs in distance, as well as the maiden Papi Chullo, who closed up the rail for 2nd...and was the only horse to ever pass him in a race leading into the KY Derby.

Looking back, I understand why I had such excitement for that performance of Giacomo's. But, as bad as Going Wild and Papi Chullo would become, I understand why that performance was being so strongly held against Giacomo.

Hard Spun earned a number 3 points less, a 95, and was beaten by some horses who might become every bit the turkeys that Going Wild and Papi Chullo were....however, there is every reason to expect marked improvement from him.